tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-346434622024-03-12T19:51:39.513-04:00Diminishing SkillsSame skills as yesterday, only slightly worse.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.comBlogger256125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-41097749341885082612014-10-21T10:21:00.000-04:002014-10-21T10:21:37.777-04:00The NBA God Contract<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>"He's the best player in baseball, and the best players in each sport should be rewarded. It'd be nice to sign a 10-year deal worth $300 million." -LeBron James, reacting to Miguel Cabrera's 10-year, $292 million extension with the Detroit Tigers</i></span></span><br />
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I never used to think pro athletes deserved big contracts. I always felt that after a certain threshold, the benefit derived from each additional dollar or two or million had to be so marginal that to gripe about having earnings capped at multiple millions of dollars bordered on offensive. I was one of those people--and "those people," probably make up 90% of the population, so I guess I should just say I was a "person"--who recoiled in disgust at deals like<a href="http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-rangers/headlines/20120118-archive-the-day-alex-rodriguez-signed-with-the-rangers.ece"> A-Rod's</a> (<a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/a-rod-yankees-agree-terms-275m-deal-article-1.259792">twice!</a>) and <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5137456">Ryan Howard's</a>. How could anyone be worth such obscene amounts of money? How could somebody even <i>ask</i> for such sums?<br />
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Then, I started working. I got a job out of school in a management development program for an international corporation worth billions of dollars. I was a company man, staying late, taking on any assignment that came my way, striving, <i>achieving.</i> At my first annual review, I nearly aced my assessment, and I was rewarded with a better-than-expected pay bump. I continued to achieve, took on more responsibility, and by the time my two-year review came around, I found myself a part of the upper management team. I went in for the review with a number in mind that was still a deal for the company based on research I did regarding similar roles at other companies performed by people with similar experience. My assessment this time around was nearly identical to my glowing first year, but my bump this time was nearly half as much as the first time around. When I pointed out A.) the vast difference in monetary increases for nearly identical performance, and B.) that at this rate of increase I wouldn't reach the (generous!) number I had in mind until 2017, I was informed that corporate policy capped the earnings of associates in the development program at my Year 2 number (and that I should be proud that I earned the highest possible amount). <br />
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And suddenly, I found myself feeling sorry for players like the Cleveland Indians' pitcher Corey Kluber, who <a href="http://www.letsgotribe.com/2014/10/7/6934585/2014-al-cy-young-award-corey-kluber-indians-best-pitcher">may win the AL Cy Young Award</a> this year but currently is only slated to make the league minimum next year (which is identical to what he made this year) and then find himself subjected to the MLB salary arbitration process through 2018. If Kluber pitches at his 2014 level through his arbitration-eligible years and the Indians don't sign him to an extension (they probably will), it is estimated that <a href="http://www.letsgotribe.com/2014/7/30/5951515/indians-corey-kluber-contract-extension-how-much">he will earn about $40 million total through the 2018 season</a>. <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost">Assuming a win is worth between $5-7 million</a>, Kluber's 2014 alone was worth between $37 and $42 million, meaning the Indians will have already gotten their money's worth even if Kluber never throws another pitch and (for some reason) still gets David Price-like money (Price signed a $14 million in 2014 to avoid arbitration with the Tampa Bay Rays) throughout his arbitration years.<br />
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Perhaps the most extreme example of production vs. compensation is Mike Trout's first two seasons with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. From 2012-13, Trout's production was worth between $98 and $138 million, and yet he only cost the Angels a little over $1.5 million. If Trout had hit the open market after leading the majors in Wins Above Replacement as a 20-year old in 2012, he most likely would have received offers worth upwards of $300 million spanning across the next decade, but, due to the MLB's labor structure, Trout wouldn't have hit the market until 2017 (the Angels signed him to a 6-year $144.5 million extension prior to the 2014 season). Why would the MLB Players' Association ever agree to a system that potentially suppresses the earnings of marquee players for six years, keeping them off the market until the vast majority of them are past their primes (Mike Trouts of the world excepted)? The answer lies in the length and dollar amount of the very contracts that used to boil my blood.<br />
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For the majority of young MLB players, their production will never merit salaries beyond what they are promised throughout the years they are under team control. Many of them will never last all six years with one team, and even more of them will never merit a salary above what the labor structure dictates. Similarly, many young NBA players will never be worth the salaries they are slotted to earn under the Rookie Salary Scale, and some of them won't even last in the league to see the end of those first contracts. Both of these systems are in place to encourage teams to invest in the development of young talent while also protecting them from long-term commitments to one- or two-year washouts (the NBA system can keep a player under team control for 5 years without any extension). While middling-to-average players in both sports are fairly compensated under these respective systems, the differences between the MLB and the NBA is most felt by those players that produce at a high level from day one.<br />
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Mike Trout could have signed his extension two weeks into his rookie year (Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria signed a six-year extension less than a week after making his major league debut), and the deal could have been identical to the Miguel Cabrera contract described in the opening quote of this post had the Angels wanted. Even though Trout "settled" for the deal he did, he still will find himself in line for a Cabrera-type contract when he hits the free agent market entering his age-29 season. Assuming his leg doesn't fall off, Trout could challenge the career earnings of Alex Rodriguez thanks to the complete absence of salary and length limitation on MLB contracts.<br />
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Compare Trout's earnings trajectory with another prodigy, LeBron James. While James wasn't instantly the best player in the league (he finished his rookie year <a href="http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/cle?season=2003">4th on the Cavs in Wins Produced (WP)</a>, just behind Kevin Ollie), it didn't take him long to get there (16.5 WP in his second season, surpassed only by an in-his-prime Kevin Garnett). Over those first two years, James earned just over $8 million, which is pretty darned good compared to the (estimated) $900k Trout earned. Prior to the start of Trout's third season, however, he signed his six-year $145 million extension, a deal possible due to the complete lack of salary or contract length limitations of MLB contracts. Is there any doubt that Dan Gilbert wouldn't have thrown out an offer worth at least that much after LeBron's second season? <br />
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Instead, due to the confines of the Rookie Salary Scale, LeBron wouldn't be eligible for an extension for another season, and, even then, the most that could be offered under the NBA's collective bargaining agreement was $80 million over 5 years (LeBron famously [infamously?] signed for only 3 years and $60 million). Even when LeBron hit free agency, easily the best player in the league and still only 25 years old, the maximum he could be offered was $125 million over six seasons by the Cavs or 5 years, $96 million by another team (he of course signed with Miami for six years, $110.1 million via a sign-and-trade). The $129 million career earnings of the two-time NBA Champion, 4-time NBA MVP, and 2-time NBA Finals MVP fall far short of what Trout will have earned through 9 years with far less accomplished to date (not to say Trout won't achieve similar greatness on the diamond as James has on the court) and with far, FAR less star power (be honest: did you know what Mike Trout looked like prior to seeing his picture earlier in this post?).<br />
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So how is this conundrum solved? LeBron (and Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony, and...) all feel they are grossly underpaid (hahahahahahaha Kobe, good one), yet the owners have no desire to eliminate the maximum salary. And why should they? The players have almost zero leverage, and the league will gladly overpay the Gordon Haywards of the world to continue to leach off the efforts of LeBron, Durant and all of the plucky up-and-comers still working on rookie deals (Anthony Davis, Adam Silver thanks you). <a href="http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/10/07/cuban-ending-max-contracts-would-come-with-a-price/">Mark Cuban is willing to get rid of the contract ceiling</a>, but in exchange he wants to eliminate guaranteed contracts, which is a complete non-starter. The owners probably would take better care of the elite players, but it would come at the expense of the Haywards and Mike Millers and Kent Bazemores, so the votes wouldn't be there to approve any deal that takes from the middle and bottom tiers to reward the top tier (not to mention the ironic March-On-Wall-Street-style protests that would erupt in support of a handful of men earning $200,000 instead of $500,000). So how do the stars get their proper rewards without robbing the rank-and-file of the league?<br />
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First, you don't change a thing about the current salary structure. Keep the cap, keep the luxury tax, keep the rookie scale, keep it all. The only change is the introduction of a one-per-team, no-limits, no-tax implications monster contract. Call it the God Contract, and it can be any length for any amount, without counting against the salary cap nor the luxury tax. The only caveats are that it can only be used to re-sign a player, that it cannot be traded and that a team can only have one God Contract on its payroll at a time. The God Contract keeps the status quo, allowing Jodie Meeks to continue to get grossly overpaid while also allowing Durant to get what is due unto him. It solves the big-market, small-market dilemma by allowing Dan Gilbert to throw 20 years and $500 million at LeBron in 2010 to get over whatever happened in the Boston series and stay in gray, cold Cleveland over four years of fun in the Miami sun while still giving the Cavs flexibility to add pieces around their King. <br />
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Now the big concern would be a team such as the Kings giving such a contract to a player such as DeMarcus Cousins, but I don't think that would happen as often as it initially may seem. Remember, these contracts could not be traded, so not only would the Kings be stuck with Cousins for a decade at a debilitating salary (assuming he doesn't build on his productive 2013-14 and mature showing in the FIBA World Cup), Cousins would be stuck in Sacramento. The permanence of the God Contract would cause both teams and players to pause and carefully consider the commitment they are about to make.<br />
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In fact, as I see it, there are only three sure-fire, no-doubt-about-it locks that would get a God Contract right now: LeBron, Durant, and Anthony Davis. LeBron & Durant are 1-2 right now atop the league pecking order, and will probably swap back and forth over the next few years, while Davis is the only under-25 player I would say appears transcendental right now. If you think I'm being conservative, let's look back 5 years at five players from 2009-10 who looked like they were worthy of a God Contract:<br />
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<b>1.</b> <b>LeBron</b>--Still a no-doubter. <span style="color: lime;">SIGN</span><br />
<b>2.</b> <b>Dwight Howard</b>--Injuries and attitude have hindered what looked like a Hall-of-Fame career. The HOF is still in play, but if Orlando had locked him up for 10 years and $200 million, they would have to be kicking themselves right now. <span style="color: red;">NO SIGN</span> <br />
<b>3. Rajon Rondo</b>--Rondo would have been coming off his age 24 season, having made his first All-Star Game and producing 15.6 Wins Produced. He was amazing in the Celtics' surprise run back to the NBA Finals, averaging 20.9 points, 12.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 2.5 steals in the playoffs (including an insane 29-18-13 in Game 4 of the Eastern Semifinals vs. Cleveland). All that said, injuries and diminished performance with lesser teammates shows that Rondo was/is not worth God status. <span style="color: red;">NO SIGN</span><br />
<b>4. Kevin Durant</b>--Yes. <span style="color: lime;">SIGN</span><br />
<b>5. Dywane Wade</b>--This is a toughie. Wade remained elite through 2013, and was still a high-caliber All-Star when he played last year. When you factor in his legendary status in Miami and the cache that comes with that, you can make a compelling case that Wade is worth the God Contract. <span style="color: lime;">SIGN</span><br />
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So three players were worthy of the contract 5 years ago, and only two of those three are still worthy of one today. Of course, it would not have been surprising if all five of the listed players received a God Contract in 2010, if not more players. The same goes for today, where just because a player doesn't deserve a God Contract doesn't mean he wouldn't get one. Owners can be dumb when they have a bunch of money to spend, and the God Contract gives them literally <i>all </i>of their money to spend (albeit on one player). I still don't think a rash of God Contracts would cripple the league, since 1.) once a team agrees to a God Contract, they cannot offer another for the length of that initial deal, and 2.) the first God Contract that goes sour will make teams and players very apprehensive to wed themselves to each other through such an ironclad commitment. Following his MVP season in 2011, it is very likely that the Bulls and Derrick Rose would have agreed to a God Contract. Since then, Rose has played 49 games of largely below-average basketball and there are lingering doubts that he will ever approach his 2011 season again. Cases like that of Rose and the Bulls would certainly give teams pause in subsequent seasons.<br />
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The God Contract would also hinder future flexibility. Now that he has returned to the Cavs, there is no doubt that Cleveland would offer LeBron a God Contract the second it became possible to do so. But if the God Contract had been possible even last season, isn't it conceivable that Dan Gilbert would have already offered one to Kyrie Irving? And would LeBron have come back to Cleveland knowing that the possibility of the God Contract was off the table for the length of Kyrie's deal? Or how would Al Horford be feeling if he had signed a God Contract earlier in his career to stay in Atlanta, and now found himself stuck on a team with ownership in flux and a front office reduced to shambles due to racially-charged comments?<br />
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That is why I feel both teams and players would eventually realize that the God Contract is applicable to only very special cases. Still, it would shock no one if several teams threw them around in the first year or two after they became a possibility and the future ramification were still not fully being realized.<br />
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The following are players who could conceivably have signed a God Contract this season broken into tiers based on the reasoning behind why they would receive a God Contract. This exercise is conceived on the premise that the God Contract would have been available immediately following the season (so Kevin Love, for instance, could have signed it in Minnesota).<br />
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<b>Really, Really Good: </b> <b>Kevin Love, Blake Griffin.</b> Love in Minnesota actually probably deserves a God Contract. It's the only thing that would keep him a Timberwolf, and he is still only 25 and a super-productive player. Griffin gets the nod over Chris Paul due to his youth, Paul's injury history, and Blake's superior marketability.<br />
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<b>Lifetime Achievement Awards:</b> <b>Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Dywane Wade, Tim Duncan.</b> The reasoning behind these deals would be two-fold. 1.) They would reward long-time franchise players in various stages of the twilights of their careers. 2.) It would allow the Mavs, Lakers, Heat and Spurs to move these rewards off of their salary cap and better supplement their respective franchise cornerstones with talent. The Lakers would gladly extend Kobe's deal a few more years if it would clear the remaining $48 million off their cap number over the next two seasons. And couldn't you just see Gregg Popovich signing Duncan to 1-year $20 million deals off the cap for as long as Duncan wants to play?<br />
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<b>Paying For Potential & Size: DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, Jonas Valanciunas.</b> All three of these guys have shown flashes of being dominant big men, but for various reasons are still not there yet. Cousins has already put up eye-popping stats (22.7 ppg, 11.7 rpg in 2013-14), but immaturity and a bad temper have held him back. Drummond is an athletic freak who will probably still be smoothing out his rough edges in three seasons, while Valanciunas is a traditional lumbering big who may find himself obsolete in some playoff series.<br />
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<b>Mistakes: John Wall, Kyrie Irving, LaMarcus Aldgridge, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony.</b> These guys are all fine players, but if their respective franchises ever truly believed they were the centerpieces of championship squads, they are gravely mistaken.<br />
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<b>Enigmas: Stephen Curry, James Harden (or Dwight Howard), Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah.</b> You could talk me into any of these players deserving a God Contract, but you could also make an equally valid case that such a move would be a franchise-crippling mistake.<br />
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So would the God Contract solve the big labor issue facing the NBA right now? It would certainly take care of the stars at the top who truly are underpaid, while also keeping the system in place that has made the NBA's middle class of players the most well-compensated of any of the major American sports leagues. The God Contract would also protect the owners from themselves, just as the current max contracts do, by limiting each team to one and by keeping the value of the contract off of the cap and tax ledgers. It would also give small market teams that have lucked their way into a superstar (Cleveland with LeBron, OKC with Durant, New Orleans with Davis, Washington with Otto Porter) a legitimate advantage over big market teams trying to lure those players away. Of course, solving this issue only brings one of a myriad other issues to the surface (minimum age limit? draft lottery reform? season length?), but I will solve those issues in a future post (hopefully). <br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-84317390404949176152014-01-03T18:09:00.001-05:002014-01-03T18:09:32.433-05:00Who Says No? Exploring Andrew Bynum Trade Possiblities<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kD0XYTOMLhCGL0OOeHVoXjt8FZieW8PC3-CJJnIO_PWqdgGNjGvyF-4-3LSfzXxyIQZeuBA4F5CZExdmYmWHHXF9zhoCo6GptI3y8kTp5FMXPoqlPQ95-hnfMuorBhVeUJZj/s1600/Andrew-Bynum.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kD0XYTOMLhCGL0OOeHVoXjt8FZieW8PC3-CJJnIO_PWqdgGNjGvyF-4-3LSfzXxyIQZeuBA4F5CZExdmYmWHHXF9zhoCo6GptI3y8kTp5FMXPoqlPQ95-hnfMuorBhVeUJZj/s320/Andrew-Bynum.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Someone should have told Andrew no.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Apparently, <a href="http://www.fearthesword.com/2014/1/3/5270644/report-cavaliers-mulling-trades-for-bynum-set-monday-target-deadline">the Cavs are mulling a number of offers for Andrew Bynum</a> (or, more accurately, the $6 million in savings he represents for the remainder of the season). They are expected to decide which offer to accept on Monday, and while I'm sure the deal is going to be much worse than anything I can dream up, I figured I'd try anyway. Welcome to the first edition of Who Says No? where I go around the league peddling deals to every other franchise and gauge who would reject each respective offer. And, yes, you're right, I really do need to go back to work.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
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1. Cavs Receive Paul Millsap from Atlanta in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Atlanta. Andrew Bynum in his Lakers prime would be an ideal fit next to Al Horford, and even without the injured Horford, Bynum's post game would be a nice complement to the shooters on Atlanta's perimeter. Given Bynum's current state, this would be a complete salary dump for Atlanta. Millsap is actually worth the money, though. The problem with Atlanta's roster is that there isn't really any bad money to dump. Millsap also doesn't really fit on the Cavs, which could lead to a third team becoming involved...<br />
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1a. Cavs Receive Omer Asik, Houston receives Millsap, Atlanta receives Bynum</h3>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Probably still Atlanta, and most likely Houston. Atlanta still doesn't receive any basketball value for Millsap, while Daryl Morey has made it clear that he needs a player <i>and</i> a draft pick for the sad Turk. If this actually did happen, an Asik/Varejeao front line would probably be ugly.<br />
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2. Cavs Receive Gerald Wallace from Boston in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Gerald Wallace is awful, and he has 2 years left on his deal after this season. I'm not even sure a 1st round pick from Boston could help get this deal done.<br />
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3. Cavs Receive Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko, & Mriza Teletovic from Brooklyn in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. All three players have another year on their deals, and only Kirilenko is of any use. Brooklyn needs a deal like this to try to start clearing some money off their books. Perhaps the Cavs could parlay him into something else...<br />
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3a. Cavs Receive Tayshaun Prince, Memphis's 2014 1st Round pick, Terry & Teletovic, Brooklyn receives Andrew Bynum, Memphis receives Andrei Kirilenko</h3>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Probably still Cleveland. While the first round pick is nice, Prince, Terry, & Teletovic represent $16 million in essentially dead money. That's hefty price for a mid-tier draft pick, even in a stacked draft.<br />
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4. Cavs Receive Ben Gordon from Charlotte in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Both players are worthless, but Gordon will cost $6 million more for the remainder of the season. If Charlotte sweetened the pot by dangling a pick, though, Dan Gilbert has proven he's willing to eat money to get more draft assets (see: Walton, Luke; Davis, Baron).<br />
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5. Cavs Receive Carlos Boozer from Chicago in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Chicago. Although the Bulls are likely going to amnesty Boozer following the season (and could save themselves around $22 million by swinging this deal), they are still competing for a playoff spot. Boozer may not be worth what he's paid, but he's a perfectly serviceable NBA power forward. The one year and $15 million left on his deal would probably give the Cavs pause, too.<br />
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6. Cavs Receive Charlie Villanueva from Detroit in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Villanueva has only played in 9 games this season (averaging only 8.8 minutes per game), so losing him really doesn't effect the Pistons' rotation. This trade would save Detroit about $2 million, while Cleveland would at least get something for Bynum (I guess). This is exactly the kind of deal I expect to be announced Monday, which makes me wonder if Cleveland wouldn't just be better off releasing Bynum.<br />
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7. Cavs Receive Shawn Marion from Dallas in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Dallas. Just as Atlanta doesn't really have any awful contracts to dump, neither does Dallas. This deal would save them about $4.5 million, which isn't really worth jeopardizing one of the few remaining chances Dirk has of getting back into the playoffs. I would love this deal for the Cavs, even if Marion would almost assuredly leave after the season. He could work with Carrick Felix on becoming a Matrix-type player (which Felix is a very, VERY poor-man's version of), and he could hopefully help the Cavs get into the playoffs while trying to up his value for one last payday.<br />
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8. Cavs Receive Wilson Chandler & Andre Miller from Denver in exchange for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Following his recent suspension, Miller WILL be traded soon, and Chandler has 2 years at over $6 million per left after this season (the remainder of a 5-year $31.7 million deal, one of the few mistakes Masai Ujiri made during his time in Denver). Chandler would be the best small forward on Clevleand's roster, but the 2 year commitment eats into their future cap space. Also, Miller is kind of redundant with Jarrett Jack already backing up Kyrie Irving. Maybe...<br />
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<h3>
8a. Cavs Receive Wilson Chandler, Denver Receive Pau Gasol, & LA Lakers Receive Andrew Bynum, JJ Hickson, & Andre Miller</h3>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> LA. While this trade gives them frontline depth to help fill Gasol's void (Hickson), a more-than-adequate backcourt body to fill in for their pile of injured guards (Miller), and luxury tax relief (after releasing Bynum, this trade saves the Lakers about $9 million), the Lakers expect more back for their borderline Hall-of-Fame big man. The Cavs still have to deal with the remaining years on Chandler's contract, so they probably wouldn't be thrilled, either. (The Nuggets would obviously be ecstatic.)<br />
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9. Cavs Receive David Lee from Golden State for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Golden State. There is absolutely no reason the Warrior would make any deal for Bynum.<br />
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10. Cavs Receive Danny Granger from Indiana for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Indiana, although they'd have to think hard about it. Granger has only played 6 games this year, and it is clearly evident that he is completely inessential to the Pacers' continued success. The only reason Indiana says no to this deal is if they believe they can get a better return for Granger than $6 million in savings. I'm not sure they can, and to me this deal makes the most sense of any I've listed thus far.<br />
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11. Cavs Receive Jared Dudley, Jamal Crawford, & a poo-poo platter from LA Clippers for Andrew Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> LA. There is no reason for them to do any Bynum deal.<br />
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12. Cavs Receive Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, James Jones, & Rashard Lewis from Miami for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Miami. While the Cavs would get a real turd sandwich back, the Heat can just wait for the Bynum to be released and sign him if they really want him. He would be perfect for 8-12 minutes off of their bench, and could be a crucial asset against Roy Hibbert in the playoffs. Regardless of where Bynum is traded, Miami is where I predict he winds up playing the remainder of the season.<br />
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13. Cavs Receive O.J. Mayo & Zaza Pachulia from Milwaukee for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. While Mayo would be an upgrade on the wing for Cavs, he and Pachulia are owed a combined $13.5 million a year over the next two seasons. That's a pretty hefty price for two barely average players.<br />
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<h4>
14. Cavs Receive Corey Brewer, Alexey Shved, & Shabazz Muhammed from Minnesota for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No? </b>Cleveland. While Muhammed may become something down the line, all three of these guys have deals extending beyond this off-season, and none of them deserve to be part of the Cavs' plans at this time. Minnesota probably has no reason to say yes, either.<br />
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15. Cavs Receive Eric Gordon from New Orleans for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> New Orleans. This deal would save the Pelicans over $35 million over the next 2-plus seasons, but Gordon probably has more value than just Bynum (even if he doesn't really deserve it). <br />
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16. Cavs Receive Amare Stoudamire from New York for Bynum and Jarrett Jack</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Stoudamire is likely to be $21 million of dead money next year. No thanks.<br />
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17. Cavs Receive Kendrick Perkins and Hasheem Thabeet from Oklahoma City for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Perkins and Thabeet are borderline useless to the Cavs, and combined are owed $9.9 million next year. If the Thunder threw in a first round pick, perhaps this would be a different story.<br />
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<h4>
18. Cavs Receive Big Baby Davis & Jason Maxiell from Orlando for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. There's absolutely no reason the Cavs would take on Davis & Maxiell unless the Magic threw in a first-rounder, which isn't happening.<br />
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<h4>
19. Cavs Receive Jason Richardson from Philadelphia for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Philly would make out like bandits on this deal, escaping with a total of $12 million savings.<br />
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20. Cavs Receive Emeka Okefor from Phoenix for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. Okefor hasn't played at all this year due to a herniated disk in his neck. This deal would cost the Cavs about $7 million this year.<br />
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<h4>
21. Cavs Receive Myers Leonard, Thomas Robinson, Willie Barton, Victor Claver, & Earl Watson from Portland for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Portland. There's no reason for them to disrupt some of the best chemistry in the NBA. The return for the Cavs has enough intriguing young pieces (Leonard, Robinson, & Barton) to make this deal worthwhile for them.<br />
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22. Cavs Receive Carl Landry and Travis Outlaw from Sacramento for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. While Landry is a solid player (though he hasn't played this year), he has three years left on his deal. Outlaw is one of the worst players in the NBA.<br />
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23. There Are No Plausible Deals with San Antonio.</h4>
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Kudos yet again to the Spurs front office.<br />
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<h4>
24. Cavs receive DeMar DeRozan from Toronto for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland (I hope). Masai Ujiri would say yes to this in a heartbeat. It clears the 3 years left on DeRozan's deal off the books and would complete his overhaul of the Raptors (in about six months, which is astounding). This is the type of deal I fear the Cavs are mulling.<br />
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<h4>
25. Cavs Receive Richard Jefferson from Utah for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Cleveland. While Jefferson would provide veteran leadership and a warm body to fill in at the 3, the Cavs would lose over $5 million on this deal. Unless the Jazz sweeten the pot with a pick, I don't see this happening.<br />
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<h4>
26. Cavs Receive Jan Vessely, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, Chris Singleton, & Glenn Rice, Jr. from Washington for Bynum</h4>
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<b>Who Says No?</b> Washington. While this deal saves them over $4 million in exchange for essentially roster fodder, most of these guys are still young enough to believe that they might still develop into something. This is the best kind of deal the Cavs can hope for (unfortunately): a grab bag of unfulfilled potential with no commitment beyond this season.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-81223914196310633412014-01-02T21:42:00.000-05:002014-01-02T21:42:39.823-05:00Ranking The "New" Browns Head Coaches (so far)<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLJzbijuhv0apqbPmar_FPQ1GQmO13Y819mRKBQdzPDrByobqiI4hKIRiAGqJ3Z6h6h-R-U12e5cBdqHtLBsOmpCtjYJ9MaRoxyzOZk4MM4hqIYXgzs7yy16nwDE3gn1x-swqN/s1600/denisleary.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLJzbijuhv0apqbPmar_FPQ1GQmO13Y819mRKBQdzPDrByobqiI4hKIRiAGqJ3Z6h6h-R-U12e5cBdqHtLBsOmpCtjYJ9MaRoxyzOZk4MM4hqIYXgzs7yy16nwDE3gn1x-swqN/s320/denisleary.jpg" width="253" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Where does he rank?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Before their move to Baltimore in 1995, the Cleveland Browns had employed 9 full-time head coaches over a 49-year span. Since their return in 1999, that count is 6, with the 7th being hired sometime in the next few weeks. Before the next in the line of mediocre-to-terrible field generals is introduced, let's reflect on just how awful things actually have been, and who exactly has been the least awful. Enjoy. <br />
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INCOMPLETE: Terry Robiskie, 2004, 1-4</h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbBF9diVDOeISytkM8f9UffQoIgmk2vM26lUH1QV0XvBWGMY3oy2Ou63BlhBMwH8B8qidIbd0N0fNwV9Q2bJT0zqa8roFO8nqrHhcIuQRnP8nEPiBfnQ9wqRpWq56PwEC7N9SO/s1600/terry-robiskie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbBF9diVDOeISytkM8f9UffQoIgmk2vM26lUH1QV0XvBWGMY3oy2Ou63BlhBMwH8B8qidIbd0N0fNwV9Q2bJT0zqa8roFO8nqrHhcIuQRnP8nEPiBfnQ9wqRpWq56PwEC7N9SO/s320/terry-robiskie.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Even his mustache is frowning.</td></tr>
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<b>How Bad Was It?</b> Robiskie took over for Butch Davis with 5 games left in the 2004 season after Davis was fired. The Browns lost their first 4 games under Robiskie, getting outscored 110-29 (which would look even worse if not for a 10-7 loss to a 3-11 Dolphins team in Week 15). It certainly does not appear as if the troops rallied around Robiskie to get him the full-time gig, but he walked into a nearly impossible situation (for instance, Luke McCown made his first 4 NFL starts during Robiskie's winless streak). Robiskie was retained after the season to serve as Romeo Crennel's wide receivers coach.<br />
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<b>Fun Fact:</b> Rob Chudzinksi served as the interim offensive coordinator under Robiskie. He made the first of his three exits from Cleveland after the season. <br />
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<h3>
6. Chris Palmer, 1999-2000, 5-27</h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseIsSBjvXTZCujQfgQ_ZTTAQZunQxMttPH24UeNkqnyUdKx7_uEqPniEFl1DZ409SwQbWJL4Y91YWuWAZ7W18rh3KTze3QhRh5A95PpOEpygVkcFMkycj8osYhQtMS0dI7_Ce/s1600/chris-palmer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseIsSBjvXTZCujQfgQ_ZTTAQZunQxMttPH24UeNkqnyUdKx7_uEqPniEFl1DZ409SwQbWJL4Y91YWuWAZ7W18rh3KTze3QhRh5A95PpOEpygVkcFMkycj8osYhQtMS0dI7_Ce/s320/chris-palmer.jpg" width="184" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">We should have known things weren't going to work out when he showed up wearing khakis.</td></tr>
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<b>How Bad Was It?</b> In Palmer's own words, a "runaway train". Five times during Palmer's tenure the Browns were shutout (including the 43-0 shellacking at the hands of the Steelers in the first game back, which obviously is a hole Cleveland is still trying to escape), eleven times they failed to eclipse 200 yards of total offense in a game, and eight times they failed to tally double digit first downs. <br />
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<b>Lowlight:</b> The opening loss to the Steelers was obviously a crippling defeat, but don't sleep on the 48-0 debacle at the hands of Jacksonville in Week 14 of the 2000 season. Spergon Wynn made the start at quarterback, and proceeded to run exactly zero plays on the Jaguars' side of the field the entire game (the closest the Browns came to crossing midfield was their opening drive, which stalled out at the 49). Final tallies of 2 first downs and -9 yards passing led to Palmer's infamous "runaway train" comment and put the final nail into his coffin.<br />
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<b>Highlight:</b> With a 2-2 record vs. the Steelers, Palmer is the only coach of the new era to avoid a losing record against Pittsburgh. Palmer is also responsible for the first use of the Wildcat formation that I can remember in an NFL game, unleashing it against Philadelphia the week after the Jacksonville debacle (Dennis Northcutt carried the ball 7 times for 37 yards, mostly off of direct snaps). <br />
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<b>Who the Browns Could've (Should've) Hired Instead:</b> Brian Billick (Baltimore), Andy Reid (Philadelphia)<br />
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<h3>
5. Pat Shurmur, 2011-12, 9-23</h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDUOzK3_xUiOsfz-ZSFNFcFm_4zMfUjsQbhZLGAW41D3yIRNAbzJq9yjM_E-WDSa-dRwbgN-8uMrDuYp9NqNflQHxXWvFLOiByxteJxHwM3BTUpoHp3FgCfyALrR25i_IChTx/s1600/patshurmur.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDUOzK3_xUiOsfz-ZSFNFcFm_4zMfUjsQbhZLGAW41D3yIRNAbzJq9yjM_E-WDSa-dRwbgN-8uMrDuYp9NqNflQHxXWvFLOiByxteJxHwM3BTUpoHp3FgCfyALrR25i_IChTx/s1600/patshurmur.JPG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A typical Pat Shurmur press conference response: "..."</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<b>How Bad Was It?</b> Shurmur once called a fullback dive for TE Alex Smith that led to a Smith fumble. When asked why he would give the ball to a tight end who hadn't rushed in a football game since junior high, Shurmur explained that he didn't know Smith was in the game at fullback. He (or at least his staff) inserted Colt McCoy back into a Thursday night game versus the Steelers when McCoy was clearly concussed (see picture below). Mike Lombardi (who in hindsight may have had ulterior motives when speaking about the Browns) once told Bill Simmons that guys at NFL Network who had run the West Coast offense could predict the Browns' next play simply by looking at the formation. It is an odd bit of irony that one of the most unimaginative offensive minds I've ever seen (and being a Browns fan, I've seen my fair share of dullards) is the offensive coordinator of perhaps the most innovative offense the NFL has seen in recent memory. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfdY4M9o2csscxHMswaXBfDlAXYRQtM58rvXEC8u5osr0cdCSoCqT4Zj8LRQxmVIdt6PTWxQW53X4gJk-QKfDhv7plKWg2nF3L_tzs9wEbyTKiQ3dcpm_65WyFqnLkMnAWdpxN/s1600/coltblackedout.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfdY4M9o2csscxHMswaXBfDlAXYRQtM58rvXEC8u5osr0cdCSoCqT4Zj8LRQxmVIdt6PTWxQW53X4gJk-QKfDhv7plKWg2nF3L_tzs9wEbyTKiQ3dcpm_65WyFqnLkMnAWdpxN/s320/coltblackedout.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Colt McCoy, clearly boondoggled out of his gourd.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>Lowlight:</b> A play was called for a player to run the ball who A.) had not attempted a rush in at least 15 years & B.) the head coach did not even know was in the game. Also, any Pat Shurmur press conference. The man could suck the life out of the Stratton Oakmont offices.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgltz2SMS_JquN5juB0cpvJp4Iy9aeRVuvUFS3XEzvdYL6SnvVYsg07ZzDgq07K0MTKUh1chyphenhyphenRjC7uAd4hEvGy7bzy5g6IzgdIxnB52xtXAjmjDxH2J2u2mxYa1b9-C8VbxngoU/s1600/the-wolf-of-wall-street-trailer-movies-dwarf.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgltz2SMS_JquN5juB0cpvJp4Iy9aeRVuvUFS3XEzvdYL6SnvVYsg07ZzDgq07K0MTKUh1chyphenhyphenRjC7uAd4hEvGy7bzy5g6IzgdIxnB52xtXAjmjDxH2J2u2mxYa1b9-C8VbxngoU/s320/the-wolf-of-wall-street-trailer-movies-dwarf.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Okay, maybe he couldn't.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>Highlight:</b> Ummmmmm...there was a three-game win streak in 2012 that included a win over the Steelers, but it only improved the Browns' record from 2-8 to 5-8, so it wasn't like it was giving the fans hope or anything. Honestly, the day he was fired was probably the best day of his tenure. <br />
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<b>Who the Browns Could've (Should've) Hired:</b> Ron Rivera (Carolina), John Fox (Denver), Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco)<br />
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<h3>
4. Rob Chudzinski, 2013, 4-12</h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh213LOO_megQ05X4guvrBW26XgwID6521QvcSVaaDvHXgAN1Yk6-Xbp6Di1g5jebDI8VERgVhVqZUcCu8pmgO6-PpPQCpcsZAq4Uqlym5THbxqDJbMDPt_F5bgT97ENyHZZOEd/s1600/chud.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh213LOO_megQ05X4guvrBW26XgwID6521QvcSVaaDvHXgAN1Yk6-Xbp6Di1g5jebDI8VERgVhVqZUcCu8pmgO6-PpPQCpcsZAq4Uqlym5THbxqDJbMDPt_F5bgT97ENyHZZOEd/s320/chud.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This look of disdain can only be in response to Brandon Weeden's continued employment.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<b>How Bad Was It?</b> Not that bad, really. Yes, the Browns still lost a lot of games, but no one was expecting a division title this year. Josh Gordon emerged as one of the 5 best players in the NFL, and Jordan Cameron joined Gordon, Joe Thomas, Joe Haden, Alex Mack, and T.J. Ward as core building-block players. The quarterback play was spotty at best, but that will happen when you cycle through three different players under center (and one of those players is Brandon Weeden). Nothing happened to make me think Chud didn't deserve another year, but I guess everyone in the front office thought differently.<br />
<br />
<b>Lowlight:</b> Letting Brandon Weeden play. With Jason Campbell and (especially) Brian Hoyer providing competent quarterback play, the Browns looked like they could have easily challenged the San Diegos and Miamis and Pittsburghs of the AFC for the final wild card spot. Weeden was a disaster, and his mere presence in the starting lineup seemed to deflate the entire team. <br />
<br />
On a personal note for Chud, taking this job in the first place is probably a lowlight. He was at best the new brass's third choice, and he had to know he was on a short leash (but I don't think he knew it was this short). If he stays in Carolina this year and they have the season they had, he probably enters this off-season as one of the hottest coaching candidates out there. Now, he's got the Cleveland stink on him, and he probably will have to spend a few more seasons as a coordinator somewhere before he gets another (a first?) shot at being a head coach.<br />
<br />
<b>Highlight:</b> The Brian Hoyer Era (yes, all two-and-a-half games of it). Hoyer energized not only the franchise, but the entire fan base. For all of the deserved crap Chud took for ever starting Weeden in front of Hoyer, the coach needs to be given credit for going with his third-stringer even with Campbell healthy for the Week 4 start in Minnesota. If Hoyer had any idea at all how to properly slide, Chud would probably still be on the sidelines.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1hfzeiKpDQf4NNdDhtpUuixjsbf26E8EtV0jYmkWsNFDrRNhem9OL1z7Zth-1U4oAXvaDJ0afawfT3_P71T5wTd4vbfsvL-e0AbE-gTi_l05y6Ah6Eg5oNNXLXyPztIF9Al34/s1600/brianhoyerslide.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1hfzeiKpDQf4NNdDhtpUuixjsbf26E8EtV0jYmkWsNFDrRNhem9OL1z7Zth-1U4oAXvaDJ0afawfT3_P71T5wTd4vbfsvL-e0AbE-gTi_l05y6Ah6Eg5oNNXLXyPztIF9Al34/s320/brianhoyerslide.jpg" width="252" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cameron knew right away that that is no way to slide.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>Who The Browns Could've (Should've, Would've) Hired:</b> Chip Kelly (Philadelphia), Bill O'Brien (Penn State, now Houston), Andy Reid (again, Kansas City), Mike McCoy (San Diego), Marc Trestman (Chicago), Bruce Arians (Arizona)<br />
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<br />
<h3>
3. Eric Mangini, 2009-10, 10-22</h3>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTze4MTpIt4cj_J7zn1Jur3yC0WkG8C3WFx1RdN1bAg6KNwOB0QwbV3W7RocbK46ftGK3GjwMqQIAs4Kqs5DEUqitB1jwySMDofVBXo5Rq2kjjIjMCYRROIqkOKBa-if0f4r4_/s1600/ericmangini.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTze4MTpIt4cj_J7zn1Jur3yC0WkG8C3WFx1RdN1bAg6KNwOB0QwbV3W7RocbK46ftGK3GjwMqQIAs4Kqs5DEUqitB1jwySMDofVBXo5Rq2kjjIjMCYRROIqkOKBa-if0f4r4_/s320/ericmangini.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">High-five attempt, or Nazi salute?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>How Bad Was It?</b> Similar to another gentleman further down this list, Mangini is actually a pretty good coach. His teams were almost always prepared to play, and for a brief stretch during the 2010 season, it looked like he might actually coax a winning record out of a pretty awful roster. But, just like that other guy we'll talk about later, that awful roster was largely Mangini's own fault, the result of an atrocious draft haul in his first season that the organization is still recovering from. There was some weird drama involving the <a href="http://hermsperm.blogspot.com/2009/11/shocked-kokinis-i-worked-for-browns.html">mysterious George Kokinis</a>, as well as political tensions with Mike Holmgren that contributed to Mangini's ouster as much as any football-related issues, but more than anything Mangini's legacy will be the disastrous 2009 draft.<br />
<br />
<b>Lowlight: </b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNgTd5K5Bx3IQM5Pva3EMZ4DrQvaeJFj0Y4Cehj_PR_tOJpw88vvpIC9WsPl0d5jfrVSr_C5EaSAKaRt53h6aAauoC-9frNwAI0T7SmVEjPnvMJYA3NrHLKaw_EAloYt-B2PZ/s1600/2009brownsdraft.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNgTd5K5Bx3IQM5Pva3EMZ4DrQvaeJFj0Y4Cehj_PR_tOJpw88vvpIC9WsPl0d5jfrVSr_C5EaSAKaRt53h6aAauoC-9frNwAI0T7SmVEjPnvMJYA3NrHLKaw_EAloYt-B2PZ/s320/2009brownsdraft.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Green means good, red means bad.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><br /></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<b>Highlight:</b> In 2010, the Browns beat the Saints and the Patriots handily in back-to-back games. They played well enough to get a third straight win over the Jets, but Chansi Stuckey fumbled with the Browns in field goal range in overtime and the Jets won on the subsequent possession. The Jaguars ended any playoff talk the next week thanks to a 75-yard Maurice Jones-Drew screen pass (an f-ing SCREEN PASS!) with 2:27 left. For three weeks, though, it actually looked like Cleveland may have had an actual NFL team.<br />
<br />
<b>Who The Browns Could've (Should've) Hired:</b> Rex Ryan (NY Jets)...and that's it. It was an awful coaching carousel that year (other hires: Todd Haley, Tom Cable, Mike Singletary, Steve Spagnuolo, Raheem Morris, Jim Schwartz, Josh McDaniels, Jim Caldwell, & Jim Mora).<br />
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<h3>
2. Romeo Crennel, 2005-08, 24-40</h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKrbJMUanszB42CgoBWwbudEiol8F8bfgwkabCv9R-JJMF8fOL5xZsNvB7qvgcRopCiMvj3cfll9ti-p2wkcf4Mm54tz_gGx-cM4G2QVx7NS6f8b95Xd4gf3aPA1j8Vdum6s8Q/s1600/romeo-crennel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKrbJMUanszB42CgoBWwbudEiol8F8bfgwkabCv9R-JJMF8fOL5xZsNvB7qvgcRopCiMvj3cfll9ti-p2wkcf4Mm54tz_gGx-cM4G2QVx7NS6f8b95Xd4gf3aPA1j8Vdum6s8Q/s320/romeo-crennel.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">He is #1 on my Huggable Coaches rankings.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
<b>How Bad Was It?</b> Save for the flukiest of fluke years, just as bad as it's always been. You would never know it from watching good old Romeo, though. Whether Phil Dawson was drilling a 53-yard game-winner in the snow, or Charlie Frye was scrambling right into the arms of pass-rushers in a 30-point blowout loss, Romeo held steady, staring intently at some unknown object just past the opposite side of the field. If you were to play a drinking game where you took a shot every time Romeo talked to one of his players on the sideline, you would have finished up Romeo's four seasons as sober as a Mormon.<br />
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<b>Lowlight:</b> The 2008 season had fans the most hopeful they had been since the Browns had made their return. There were four Pro-Bowlers on the offensive side of the ball, and while the highest drafted rookie wasn't selected until the 4th round (the Slowest Man Alive, Beau Bell), Shaun Rodgers was brought in to shore up what had been a porous defense in 2007. Things started off shaky, as the Browns entered the bye only 1-3 and Romeo's seat got hot. The team responded with possibly their best performance since their return, a 35-14 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants on Monday Night Football. It would be the last flicker of hope, though, as the season quickly derailed. Derek Anderson was ineffective, and then hurt, and Brady Quinn proved to be an enormous bust. Not only was the season a disappointment, but the promising future built around Anderson or Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow went up in smoke.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcmlTT9IfmfP75tzWTmORJKfSIIZ3TnBNfjip-KZLpenSOp7Iz9GYLnJzgnlJEgopG5vss_AM-RBFxfA0W7oepyjL0Lf2M6WMjYxU29ZaeqP5pjhdVD8ZXhdzwHExuCGb0hjx/s1600/romeostare.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcmlTT9IfmfP75tzWTmORJKfSIIZ3TnBNfjip-KZLpenSOp7Iz9GYLnJzgnlJEgopG5vss_AM-RBFxfA0W7oepyjL0Lf2M6WMjYxU29ZaeqP5pjhdVD8ZXhdzwHExuCGb0hjx/s320/romeostare.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">...and Romeo kept staring the whole time.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Highlight:</b> The 2007 season is still shocking even though I already know what happened. The Steelers, as they're known to do from time-to-time, embarrassed the Browns in the opener 34-7. The wheels already seemed to have come off the season as starting QB Charlie Frye was traded (given) to Seattle seemingly immediately after the game. That left Derek Anderson--recently signed off the Ravens practice squad--as the starting QB. 328 yards and 5 TD passes in an insane 51-45 win over Cincinnati the following week set the stage for an explosive season no one saw coming. In classic Cleveland sports fashion, the year the Browns finally win 10 games is the year 10 wins isn't an automatic playoff berth, but it was a fun season fueled by exciting young players. Although it ultimately proved to be fleeting, it was nice to finally have some legitimate hope about the Browns.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcmlTT9IfmfP75tzWTmORJKfSIIZ3TnBNfjip-KZLpenSOp7Iz9GYLnJzgnlJEgopG5vss_AM-RBFxfA0W7oepyjL0Lf2M6WMjYxU29ZaeqP5pjhdVD8ZXhdzwHExuCGb0hjx/s1600/romeostare.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcmlTT9IfmfP75tzWTmORJKfSIIZ3TnBNfjip-KZLpenSOp7Iz9GYLnJzgnlJEgopG5vss_AM-RBFxfA0W7oepyjL0Lf2M6WMjYxU29ZaeqP5pjhdVD8ZXhdzwHExuCGb0hjx/s320/romeostare.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">...and Romeo kept staring the whole time.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Who The Browns Could've (Should've) Hired:</b> The Browns actually made the best hire of the 2005 off-season. The Dolphins hired Nick Saban, who could have been a good hire if he hadn't bolted for Alabama (or crippled the franchise by choosing to sign Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees), while the 49ers hired Mike Nolan. <br />
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<br />
<h3>
1. Butch Davis, 2001-04, 24-34</h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj21V82gRM9UJXovssFvsv4w1fKUKiH9rRNiJO5TuKE-s1xPCcAG5HDE-oyWan_TWhEI56HBvYJ4HceehIbW0mW8i9OiG-8_MDH3Qw2h_P2WhYF7f1bYUKx7TntzaBAr2nMHHDW/s1600/butchdavis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj21V82gRM9UJXovssFvsv4w1fKUKiH9rRNiJO5TuKE-s1xPCcAG5HDE-oyWan_TWhEI56HBvYJ4HceehIbW0mW8i9OiG-8_MDH3Qw2h_P2WhYF7f1bYUKx7TntzaBAr2nMHHDW/s320/butchdavis.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Not his son.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>How Bad Was It?</b> In a macro sense, things are pretty awful if Butch Davis is the best coach the new Browns have had. But he is, and things are indeed that awful. He finished 7-9 in his first season with many of the same players that had won a combined 5 games the previous two seasons. The Browns made their only playoff appearance since the return the following season, and they should have had their first playoff win, too, if Davis didn't get ultra-conservative in the second half of their Wild Card match-up with the Steelers. Butch then proceeded to shove his head up his own ass the next two seasons, but there's no doubt the man coached his ass off those first two years. <br />
<br />
The success of Butch Davis the coach affected Butch Davis the GM, as the second half of his tenure was marked by moves that make sense only if you believe your head coach is more important than his personnel (which can be said about Bill Belichick and...Bill Parcells?). Following the playoff appearance, the entire starting linebacker corps was sent packing to make room for 2002 draftees Andra Davis, Ben Taylor, and Kevin Bentley. Tim Couch's development was undermined by the constant pressure being applied by Kelly Holcomb's presence, and Davis did nearly nothing to alleviate the situation. Couch would ultimately be cut, Holcomb would be alienated, and their replacement--Jeff Garcia--would clash horrifically with a-now-out-of-control Davis. <br />
<br />
It's often said Butch Davis the GM was Butch Davis the coach's worst enemy, and while many of the personnel decisions made by Davis hamstrung his efforts on the sidelines (Gerard Warren over Ladainian Tomlinson and Richard Seymour in the 2002 draft, for instance), his ego and hubris were a far larger factor in his demise. <br />
<br />
<b>Lowlight:</b> The Holcomb/Couch controversy was a distraction up until Couch's release, and kept the team from ever building sustained momentum following their playoff appearance. In 2003, Davis should have either named Couch his unquestioned starter, or traded Couch and ridden the hot hand of Holcomb. Either Couch continues his (admittedly modest) development into a (possible) franchise quarterback, or the assets acquired in exchange for him could be used to accelerate the youth movement Davis obviously was trying to undertake (see: starting all 2nd year players at linebacker). Davis's final season was a soap opera, but nothing damaged the long-term health of the franchise as much as his inability to pick a quarterback and move forward.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/s74eTr8VOxM" width="420"></iframe><br />
<br />
<b>Highlight:</b> The 2001 7-9 team is my favorite team of the new era, a scrappy bunch that was actually 6-4 at one point. For most Browns fans, though, the unquestionable highlight of the past 15 years has to be the "Run, William, run!" game vs. the Falcons on the last day of the 2002 season. It sent the Browns to the playoffs, William Green looked like he was about to break out, and it looked like things were on the rise in Cleveland.<br />
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<b>Who The Browns Could've (Should've) Hired:</b> Dick Vermeil (Kansas City), Herm Edwards (NY Jets) <br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-50368078467514864482013-06-30T12:41:00.000-04:002013-06-30T12:45:02.981-04:002013 Cavs Off-Season Preview Part 2: Current Roster<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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My Cavs Off-Season preview continues today with a look at what the Cavs should do with players on their current roster. Here's <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2013/06/2013-cavs-off-season-preview-part-1.html">Part 1</a> if you missed it.<br />
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<h4>
Free Agents</h4>
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<h3>
<u><strike>Restricted</strike></u></h3>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Wayne Ellington: <i>(2012-13 Salary: $2,083,042)</i>: </b>I felt Ellington had earned himself at least a qualifying offer with his play after coming to Cleveland from Memphis in February, but the $3.1 million cap hit must have been too rich for Chris Grant's tastes. There is a sentiment that Ellington can be retained for a 1-year deal that will be cheaper than the qualifying offer, but if I were Indiana or Memphis, I would jump all over him. Playing the most minutes per game of his career with the Cavs, Ellington shot 37.1 % on his 3's (55.6% True Shooting) and averaged 10.4 points per game while emerging as the Cavs premiere perimeter defender (which is pretty faint praise, but still). Using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/09/explaining-the-nba-cap-and-the-value-of-a-win/">Wages of Wins' $1.47 million figure</a> as the worth of one win, Ellington's play with the Cavs last season was worth about $4.26 million, so I didn't think the one-year qualifying offer was out-of-line. With the drafting of Sergey Karasev and Carrick Felix, though, there are plenty of wings on the roster, and a more significant one may be coming soon via free agency. If Ellington does come back, I would not be disappointed (assuming, of course, the commitment does not extend past this season). If he moves onto a contender such as Indiana or Memphis, I wish him nothing but the best.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Omri Casspi <i>($2,277,306)</i>:</b> The Cavs also declined to extend a qualifying offer to Casspi, which should shock no one. Acquired in the summer of 2011 for J.J. Hickson (along with a Sacramento 1st round pick that will likely never make it to Cleveland due to pretty strict protections), Casspi was supposed to step in as the starting SF for the forseeable future. Entering his age 23 season at the time of the trade, Casspi was coming off a disappointing sophomore campaign in Sac-town. There was hope, however, that a change of scenery would allow him to recapture the promise he showed during his rookie season (10.3 points per game). Never happened. Casspi found himself in Byron Scott's doghouse early and often, and even when he did play, he sucked. In two seasons in Cleveland, he produced a total of 3.2 Wins, failing to reach even 50% True Shooting either season. Some NBA team may take a flier on the still-only-25-year old Casspi, but my money says he returns to Israel to be a star.<br />
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<br />
<br />
<h3>
<u>Unrestricted</u></h3>
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<b>Shaun Livingston <i>($806,323)</i>: </b>Livingston was a bit of a revelation last season, providing a steady backup to Kyrie Irving, filling in for Irving ably when the star was beset by injuries, and even allowing Byron Scott to employ tricky small ball lineups due to his unique length at the point guard position. Livingston's 3.7 Wins he produced in Cleveland are worth approximately $5.43 million, making him one of the better bargains in the league last season. I hope no other teams noticed, and that Livingston will be back in the fold for a reasonable deal this season. Of all of the Cavs' free agents, Livingston is the only one whose resigning I would deem critical (to a point; if some team offers him 4 years, $16 million, it was nice knowing you Shaun). <br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Marreesse Speights <i>($4,200,000)</i>:</b> Speights provided (inefficient) scoring off the bench, as well as above average rebounding, but the fact that he opted out of his deal tells me he is not long for the Cavs. There are several cheaper, younger big man options available in this year's free agent class, so I wish Marreesse the best. I highly doubt he will get a deal that will pay him as much as he made last year, but that's probably for the better since he wasn't really worth $4 million+ anyway.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Luke Walton <i>($6,091,363)</i>:</b> Walton went from being a joke to becoming a fan favorite, and even put in some of the more memorable moments of a pretty forgettable 2012-13 Cavaliers season. This brings an end to the 6-year, $30 million deal the Lakers doled out in 2007, arguably one of the worst under-the-radar contracts ever. Over those 6 years, Walton produced 9.7 Wins, which is worth about $14.26 million. 7.3 of those Wins came in the 1st two years of the deal, meaning that for 4 years, Walton was getting paid for doing just about nothing. I know back issues played a big role in his ineffectiveness, and he seems like a great guy, but it may be time to trade in the jersey for a clipboard and move to somebody's bench as an assistant coach. Also, use some of that money to remove your <a href="http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/KjbaatLQF9YuOsu5F0E46A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD00NzM7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2013-05-22/c254f40b-e0b0-4067-8305-b1511a3917d6_luke-walton.jpg">awful, awful tattoo</a>, Luke.<br />
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<b>Daniel Gibson <i>($4,792,332)</i>:</b> Remember that magical Game 6 in 2007 when Boobie went 5-5 from deep and propelled the Cavs into their first NBA Finals appearance? Dan Gilbert definitely does, because <strike>he spent</strike> for the past 5 seasons, the Cavs' <strike>ownder</strike> owner has been paying Gibson for that one amazing performance. 5.4 Wins is all the Cavs received for Boobie's $21 million deal signed in 2008. Like Walton, injuries played a role in Gibson's suckiness, and he seems like a great guy, but I have a feeling the next big basketball moment for Boobie will be taking place in front of a non-English-speaking crowd.<br />
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<h4>
Under Contract</h4>
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<b>Kyrie Irving <i>(2013-14 $5,915,880; 2014-15 $7,459,924 [T]; 2015-16 $9,697,901 [Q])</i>:</b> Kyrie Irving is a franchise player. Kyrie Irving is a superstar. Kyrie Irving is <a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9261768/nba-trade-value-part-3">one of the ten best players in the league to build around</a>. These are things I've heard all season, and every time I've heard them, my response has been "Is he?"<br />
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Let me get what's great about Kyrie out of the way before I nitpick him to death. He is one of the most aesthetically-pleasing players I have ever watched. His bag of tricks for scoring around the rim may already be the deepest in the league, and how he goes about getting inside is a delight as well (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mr_WjR6iaj4">unless you are Brandon Knight</a>). His shooting stroke is about as pure as it gets, and his knack for <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XcQmOQO78Q">dramatic shots</a> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUhWC6IeWic">down the stretch</a> is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj66SuIg6tg">already the stuff of legends</a> (which is remarkable, considering how few wins the Cavs have since drafting him). If I had to pick just one player to watch for the an entire season (non-LeBron edition), Kyrie would be number one.<br />
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While the scoring is breath-taking, and his clutch play is inspiring, and he certainly <i>looks</i> the part of a franchise player, why don't the Cavs win more with Irving leading the way? It probably starts on defense, where there may not be a more indifferent player in the league. Other than a game against Boston last season where he had a late steal on Rondo, I cannot remember a single positive play Kyrie has made on the defensive end in his entire career. Irving also does not seem to be the great floor general you would expect from a franchise point guard, as often times it was the off-guard bringing the ball up and setting up the offense while Irving coasted on the wing, spotting up for a shot. He coasts through most games, saving himself for the 4th quarter (where he is admittedly awesome), which points to a lack of conditioning. His injury history is also troubling, as it seems any ding or bump is going to knock him out for at least 2 weeks. He does not seem to be a great leader yet, and there is an unsettling air of entitlement about him (seen in his non-support for Byron Scott late last season). Granted, he is very young, and the fact that he is such a polished scorer probably makes his lack of development in other areas more glaring than they should be for a player entering his 3rd season. But if the Cavs really are going to leap into the playoffs next year, Kyrie needs to grow beyond being just an entertaining sideshow to the real games being played by big boys like Chris Paul and Tony Parker. He needs to start being accountable for every single loss, and molding himself into the general this team needs. <br />
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<b>Anderson Varejao (Remaining contract: 2013-14 $9,100,000; 2014-15 $9,800,000 [T]):</b> Varejao was the best center in the league at the time of his (annual) injury last season. Had he found a way to appear in 70 games last season (something he has done only 3 times in his 9-year career) and continued his pace, he would have finished with 16.4 WP, which would have been 4th best in the NBA (behind Kevin Durant, LeBron Jame, and Chris Paul). Varejao has proven he is an elite player when healthy, but the "healthy" part of that equation is occurring less and less. To ensure Andy makes it through a full season, the Cavs have to add another starting-capable big man this off-season. The 36 minutes per game Varejao played last season are just too much for his playing style and history. If that number can be reduced to around 30, perhaps Wild Thing will be in the starting lineup for the playoffs for the 1st time since 2011.<br />
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<b>Tristan Thompson (2013-14 $4,285,560; 2014-15 $5,421,233 [T]; 2015-16 $7,150,606 [Q]): </b>Thompson quietly was the Cavs' most productive player last year, posting 8.5 WP and looking like a legitimate piece of a winning basketball team. The fact that his production soared after Andy was lost for the year is yet another reason the Cavs would be well-served to bring in another starting center, if only to maximize TT's and Wild Thing's respective production by keeping them out of each other's way on the glass. The Cavs seem pleased with Thompson, which is yet another reason the drafting of Anthony Bennett was so shocking.<br />
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<b>Dion Waiters (2013-14: $3,894,240; 2014-15 $4,062,000 [T]; 2015-16 $5,138,430 [T]; 2016-17 $6,777,589 [Q]:</b> Waiters went from looking like a disaster to showing the potential to be a super-sub combo guard. Just as Thompson was much better without Andy around, Waiters's best rookie moments came when Kyrie was sidelined. Although it probably won't happen this year, the Cavs are eventually going to have to split their young backcourt up, bringing Waiters off the bench to control the ball while Kyrie sits. Dion certainly doesn't seem like he's going to bust out as I feared, but I'm still not convinced he can co-exist with Irving.<br />
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<b>Tyler Zeller (2013-14: $1,663,440; 2014-15: $1,703,760 [T]; 2015-16: $2,616,975 [T]; 2016-17: $3,695,168): </b>Zeller is a big stiff, but that's not a horrible thing to have for those nights when the Dwight Howard's of the world come to town. His numbers were below-average across the board for a center, and he is in love with a mid-range jumper that is unfortunately horribly inaccurate. Zeller needs to live in the weight room this summer so that the ample putback opportunities a player of his ilk gets will turn into and-one's instead of blocked shots.<br />
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<b>Alonzo Gee (2013-14: $3,250,000; 2014-15 $3,250,000 [T]): </b>Gee is a solid role player who would be perfectly acceptable getting 10 minutes per night off the bench. Unfortunately, he is still the Cavs' starting small forward, which makes Gee look worse than he actually is. Once Cleveland brings in a legitimate starting 3, Gee will be able to be fully appreciated for what he is instead of mocked for what he is not (which is an NBA starter).<br />
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<b>C.J. Miles (2013-14: $2,225,000 [T]): </b>For much of the first few months of last season, Miles was the worst player in the NBA. He bounced back to put above-average scoring and shooting numbers, but he still isn't anything I get too excited about. The Cavs are likely going to pickup his team option for this season, although I would rather see them let him walk and give Felix and Karasev his minutes.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">2013-14 Approximate Salary Obligations (with rookie salaries): $36.5 million </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2013-14 Projected Salary Cap: $58.5 million</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2013-14 Cap Space: $22 million</span></b><br />
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<u><i>NEXT: Free Agency Preview</i></u><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-5032903559443095722013-06-29T16:51:00.000-04:002013-06-29T16:51:33.364-04:002013 NBA Draft Quick (haha, yeah right!) Thoughts<br />
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Cavs Draft Thoughts</h4>
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<u>Anthony Bennett</u></h3>
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I was just as shocked as everyone else when the Cavs took Anthony Bennett*. The problem isn't that there was a more overwhelmingly-obvious choice (there wasn't) or that Bennett doesn't have the talent to live up to #1 pick hype (he does). The issue I have with the selection is where does Bennett play? Tristan Thompson developed into the Cavs' 2nd-best player last season (he led the team with 8.48 WP, 9th among all NBA power forwards), and I'm not sure how Bennett fits alongside him in the front court. Neither player is big enough to man center for any significant amount of time, and if the plan is to stick 6-8, 240 lbs. Bennett at the 3, Cleveland's defensive woes from last season will be exacerbated.</div>
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<i>*Except Terry Pluto, who seemed adamant the choice would not be Nerlens Noel. While Pluto leaned heavily towards Alex Len as the top pick, Bennett was also a prospect he consistently mentioned as a very real possibility.</i></div>
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Another thing that concerns me regarding Bennett is I just don't see where a player of his profile fits in today's NBA. Think back to the epic Game 6 & Game 7 battles of the Finals. Would Bennett have been a part of either Gregg Popovich's or Eric Spoelstra's rotations? I don't think so. The number one NBA comp I've seen for Bennett is Larry Johnson. This of course may just be due to journalistic laziness (Bennett is about Johnson's size, they both went to UNLV, they both went #1 overall, etc.), but let's run with it.</div>
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Before back injuries and a petty, stupid feud with Alonzo Mourning derailed his career*, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thbUkBW_ftM">Grandmama</a> was a force of nature. Over the first 5 seasons of his career, he put up per game averages of 19.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. His True Shooting % was a solid 55.8% over that time, and the 41.1 Win Shares he produced is the 18th most over that span. He played in 2 All-Star games, and was widely considered one of the 20 best players in the league (give or take 5 players depending on the season). But would Johnson be valuable at all in today's league?</div>
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He thrived in an era built in the shadow of the Bad Boys Pistons title runs, where games were 80-76 slug fests. Instead of worrying about chasing the Stephen Curry's of the world off the 3-point line or attempting to somehow handle LeBron James in a pick-and-roll switch (or any situation, really), defenses back then were more concerned about clogging the paint and inflicting as much pain on the opponent as was legally allowed. Johnson was talented enough that he could probably find a niche in today's game as an energy spark supreme off the bench, but I find it very hard to see him ever getting crunch time minutes for any team of consequence. I have the same worries about Bennett, but I hope to the spectre LeBron's 2014 free agency that I am wrong.</div>
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<i><u>*1990's NBA Feuds that ruined potentially great teams:</u></i></div>
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<i>1. Chris Webber and Don Nelson in Golden State</i></div>
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<i>2. Zo and Johnson in Charlotte</i></div>
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<i>3. Jason Kidd, Jamal Mashburn, and Jim Jackson (featuring Toni Braxton) in Dallas.</i></div>
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<i>4. Derrick Coleman and Kenny Anderson vs. the world in New Jersey (with a tragic assist from Drazen Petrovic's car wreck and the drafting of Yinka Dare [which, ironically enough, is <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=g&c1comp=gt&c1val=110&c2stat=ast&c2comp=lt&c2val=5&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws">one of the only assists</a> of Dare's career, RIP]).</i></div>
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<u>Sergey Karasev</u></h3>
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Sergey Karasev, besides being an amazing interview (see above), is a nice snag for the Cavs at 19. Right now, all he can do is shoot, but he isn't even 20 yet, so there is plenty of room to grow. If he can add a little more bulk to his 6-8 frame, Karasev could become what Omri Casspi was supposed to be for Cleveland. All indications are Sergey will be in the NBA this season, which is a shame since I don't think he's going to see much playing time this year. Another year in Russia would be beneficial to all parties.<div>
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<u>Second Round Fun</u></h3>
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In the 2nd round, the Cavs drafted Alan Crabbe out of Cal at 31, then immediately traded him to Portland for two future 2nd round picks. Anytime you can parlay one of the highest-value positions in the draft (the 1st pick of the 2nd round, where you can get a 1st Round without having to dole out guaranteed money) into two picks that may or may not ever be worth that much, you have to do it. Sarcasm aside, I don't mind moving Crabbe. He's a good shooter who may have mitigated any pressure to bring back Wayne Ellington with an impressive summer, but--assuming Ellington comes back and Karasev does indeed come stateside--there would have been a logjam behind (or in front of; stay tuned!) Dion Waiters.</div>
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That logjam would have been really, um, jammed after the Cavs added Carick Felix at #33. I assumed Felix was foreign since I had never heard of him, but, nope, he played 4 years at Arizona State. <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Carrick-Felix-19622/">DraftExpress's breakdown</a> describes Felix as an athlete with good finishing skills, excellent rebounding for his position (8.1 rebounds per game last year), and tremendous effort and ability on the defensive end. This all sounds great for a team in desperate need of a 3-and-D small forward, but DraftExpress also lists his likely position as shooting guard while also pointing out that he struggles to create his own offense of the dribble (ouch). The Cavs must be looking for the next Danny Green, because that scouting report sounds very familiar (and let's hope they actually hold onto this Danny Green if Felix does pan out).</div>
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I'm no draft or college basketball expert, so I'm not going to pretend that I know anything about Felix other than what I just paraphrased from DraftExpress. But what disturbs me about his selection is that the Cavs appear to have passed up the better version of Felix in the form of San Diego State's Jamaal Franklin (who was snagged at #41 by Memphis). DX had Franklin ranked as the 23rd best prospect in this draft (with Felix sitting at #69), and they weren't alone in their love for Franklin. <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/results/top100/_/year/2013">ESPN's Chad Ford</a> had Franklin at 19 (I have no idea where Felix is since getting past #20 on Ford's Big Board costs money, even though the draft is over, which is brilliant); <a href="http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard">NBADraft.net</a> was Franklin #32, Felix #55; <a href="http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=1039">Hoops Analyst</a> had Franklin #16, Felix unranked; and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2013/06/27/2013-nba-draft-extravaganza-rev-3-eliminating-the-big-man-bias-the-euro-numbers-and-the-cheat-sheet/">Wages of Wins</a>' model actually has Felix at #18, but Franklin still higher at #8 (with both higher than Anthony Bennett at #23, which doesn't surprise me, since Wins Produced loves rebounds, and both Felix and Franklin are monster rebounders for wings). </div>
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This pre-draft love for Franklin of course does not guarantee that he will be good or even better than Felix; it just means that a college b-ball know-nothing like myself can't help but wonder what Chris Grant & Co. see in Felix that they don't see in Franklin. I hope they (and Wages of Wins) are right, because getting 3.5 Wins Produced (Felix's projected 2000 minute production) out of the #33 pick would be a coup for a team looking to take a big step forward this season.</div>
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One Non-Cavs Thought</h4>
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<u>Philadelphia's Terrible, Awful, No-Good Rebuilding Plan</u></h3>
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Following the Sixers big trade of Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a top-5 protected 2014 1st-round pick from New Orleans, I have seen nothing but overwhelming praise heaped onto Philly, to which I say "FART NOISE." </div>
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Travel back with me to late last summer and the conclusion of the Dwight Howard trade. Philadelphia slipped into the proceedings by agreeing to deal their best player--Andre Iguodala, shipped to Denver--in exchange for Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson. Two young players--rookie Moe Harkless and 2nd-year big man Nikola Vucevic--also went from Philly to Orlando. At the time, the Sixers were applauded for taking a leap-of-faith in hopes of contention, trading the face of a solid team that had peaked for the kind of potential low-post force that can be ridden to a championship. I didn't love it at the time--Bynum's injury history and, more specifically, expiring contract made me question his high cost--but I completely understood the logic behind the move. </div>
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Flashing back forward (paradox!) to present-day, we know of course that Bynum never played a second for the Sixers, and will now likely leave via free agency. Richardson played only 33 games, and despite the ascent of Holiday to All-Star status, the season ended disappointingly for a team expecting to build on 2012's surprise playoff run. Doug Collins was booted off the sideline, and Sam Hinkie was plucked from Houston's front office to oversee a massive rebuild, kicking off with the Holiday-Noel trade. If a rebuild awaited only one season removed from that 2012 run, though, why go for a championship at all last season? </div>
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Let's say Philadelphia stays out of whatever Howard deal ends up happening without Iguodala going to Denver. Iggy plays out his contract in Philly, and Harkless and Vucevic are buried on Doug Collins's bench. Even though the 10.4 Wins Iguodala produced last season would have likely pushed the Sixers back into the playoffs, let's assume they finish with an identical 34-48 record, Collins is let go, Hinkie comes in, and they still decide a rebuild is necessary. Which of the two following scenarios looks most enticing to you?</div>
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<u>SCENARIO A (REALITY)</u></div>
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PG Michael Carter-Williams 1.5 WP</div>
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SG Jason Richardson 3.6 WP</div>
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SF Evan Turner 2.0 WP</div>
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PF Thaddeus Young 8.1 WP</div>
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C Spencer Hawes 2.3 WP</div>
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C LaVoy Allen 1.0 WP</div>
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C Nerlens Noel 4.2 WP</div>
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PF Arnett Moultrie 2.9 WP</div>
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<b>Total Wins: 25.6 plus New Orleans's 2014 1st Round pick</b></div>
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<u>SCENARIO B (ALTERNATE REALITY)</u></div>
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PG Jrue Holiday 4.0 WP</div>
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SG Jason Richards 3.6 WP</div>
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SF Maurice Harless 5.0 WP</div>
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PF Thaddeus Young 8.1 WP</div>
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C Nikola Vucevic 8.1 WP</div>
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F Spencer Hawes 2.3 WP</div>
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F Evan Turner 2.0 WP</div>
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F Arnett Moultrie 2.9 WP</div>
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<b>Total Wins: 36 + whoever they took at #12 without trading Holiday</b></div>
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Personally, I'll take the proven production of Vucevic over the potential production of Noel (even though I am a fan of Nerlens; the other crappy part of that trade is that it robbed us of saying "Nerlens in N'Awlins"), and Harkless looks like he very much has a future in the league as a starting 3. I realize Hinkie wasn't the one who made the Bynum trade, and that he is just trying to make the best of what was handed to him, but this just illustrates how the lack of a consistent voice with a strong vision for where a team is heading can hurt a franchise long-term (as all Cleveland Browns fans nod sadly in agreement).</div>
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As for New Orleans, it looks like Austin Rivers's time in the league is over before it began. Coming off one of the worst rookie seasons a top-10 pick has ever turned, minutes for the Rivers will be hard to come by with Holiday, Greivas Vasquez, and 2nd round selection Pierre Jackson on board. Boo to the Pelicans for taking Rivers at #10 last year, but kudos to them for realizing their error and quickly turning the page.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-68138130206292831152013-06-23T17:37:00.000-04:002013-06-30T09:35:46.108-04:002013 Cavs Off-Season Preview Part 1: The Draft<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The 2013 NBA season is in the books, and I didn't write a single word about it. This likely disappoints no one but me, but, just in case you actually did miss my thoughts on the season, I'd like to make it up to you with a mega-post previewing the Cavs' upcoming off-season. I'm going to start with an overview of their options, then conclude with my thoughts on what they should do. It's a long one, but since I probably won't post anything until next fall, you should have ample time to get through it. Enjoy.<br />
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DRAFT NIGHT</h2>
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1. With the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers select...</h3>
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<li><b>Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucy:</b> When the Cavs won the lottery, Noel was the no-brainer selection. Although his offense is pretty strictly limited to dunking the ball, Noel's defensive stats leap off the screen: 9.5 rbg, 4.4 bpg, 2.1 spg (making him the only player from 1997 to present to average at least 4 blocks and 2 steals). Unfortunately, these numbers were put up in a season truncated by a torn ACL in Noel's right knee, the same knee that had been operated on only 2 years earlier for fractures to his growth plates. These injury flags have coupled with the 206 pounds Noel weighed at the NBA Combine to cause very serious doubt to emerge about who the #1 pick actually will be. Will Noel's knee make him Greg Oden v.2.0? Will his frame prevent him from every becoming more than a better version of Keon Clark, a pogo-stick shot blocker and dunker who simply was outmuscled in nearly all matchups in the post? I don't think so, but the Cavs might, so it may not be so shocking to hear one of the next few names called first Thursday night.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Alex Len, C, Maryland: </b>Len's stock has been helped the most by Noel's (perceived) tumble, as Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Terry Pluto talked about Len as if he were the favorite to go number one in his <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2013/06/terry_plutos_talkin_about_the_8.html#incart_river">Sunday morning column</a>. Len possesses a far more polished offensive game than Noel, as well as a much sturdier 7'1", 255 lb. frame. For his supposedly superior offensive acumen, though, Len only average 1.4 points per game more than Noel (11.9 to 10.5), and Len's defensive stats are far inferior (7.8 rpg, 0.2 spg, 2.1 bpg). More troubling than the production, however, is the fact that Len has a stress fracture in his foot. As the Cavs surely know, history has not been kind to 7-footers with feet issues (as Bill Walton, Yao Ming, and Cleveland's own Zydrunas Ilgauskas can attest). Of the possible choices being floated out leading up to the draft, Len would probably be the pick that disappoints me most. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Ben McLemore:</b> A 6-5 super athlete who can shoot (42% 3PT, 69% TS%), McLemore looks the part of an NBA superstar. Digging deeper, though, questions emerge. For someone so athletically superior to nearly everyone he plays agains, why did McLemore only shoot 3.7 free throws per game (hitting an impressive 87%, but still)? And for someone who clearly should be the best player on his college team, why did he only take 24 shots total in three Big-12 tourney games (hitting 58%, but still)? I tend to hate analysis that cherry-picks certain games and calls guys out for non-measurable things like "lack of aggression" or "choking," but McLemore just rubs me as a guy who will fade when things get tight. The fact that the Cavs have used 2 high lottery picks on guards the past two seasons (Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, obviously) also has me scratching my head as to why McLemore should be the number one pick. I'm not sold on Waiters as the answer at 2-guard, but I'm not sure I'm that much more confident McLemore is the answer, either.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Otto Porter:</b> Considered the safest pick in the draft, Porter is a consistent, heady player who would probably step in as the Cavs starting SF immediately. So why isn't he a slam dunk to step into the role vacated by the emaciated, injured Noel as the top dog of the 2013 draft? Because there isn't much room for Porter to grow. Whatever production you get from him in year one is likely the same production you're going to get from him in year 6, and while there is definitely a benefit to that kind of certainty, the #1 pick is often about changing the course of your franchise. Finding a player who can produce like Porter will is relatively easy when compared to finding a player who can become what Noel, McLemore, and even Len have the capacity to become. I also can't help but get Wesley Johnson vibes everytime I think of Porter, and I hope for his sake and the sake of whoever drafts him, I am way off-base.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>OR...</b></li>
</ul>
<h3>
2. We have a trade to announce...</h3>
<div>
With so much uncertainty even at the very top of this year's draft, a trade seemed more likely than most years. The likelihood of such a deal seems to have dwindled considerably since the Cavs initially won the lottery, but here's a breakdown of some of the more viable options being floated around, sorted from most implausible to plausable:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Package #1 for more picks.</b> This would be one of the dumber decisions in history. When you aren't even certain there is a player you want at #1 overall, why in the world would you want to acquire <i>more</i> picks to throw at what could be a collection of garbage players? <i>Chance of happening: 0%</i></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade #1 for Kevin Love or DeMarcus Aldridge.</b> While either of these players would be a huge addition to the Cavs starting five (Love especially), I don't see Minnesota or Portland trading established NBA big men for a lottery ticket that Noel does indeed turn into the second coming of Dikembe Mutumbo. <i>Chance of happening: 0.5%</i> </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade for Pau Gasol.</b> This seems to have lost momentum in the past few weeks, but this trade still makes sense to me. Gasol's salary clears off the Lakers' books, Gasol gets a year away from LA to get his mind right before he hits free agency, and the Cavs get an All-Star big man to team with Kyrie and to show Tristan and Zeller how to get things done down low. I wonder if Kobe's recent comments about the Lakers needing to add some youth will rekindle the fire for this deal. Probably not. <i>Chance of happening:</i> <i>15%</i></li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>
3. Picks #19, #31, & #33</h3>
<div>
Yuck. Draft Express currently has the Cavs taking Reggie Bullock (a 3 & D specialist from North Carolina), Erick Green (a senior combo guard from Virginia Tech), and Mike Muscala (a center from Bucknell) with these three picks, and, although I am certainly no draft or college b-ball expert, I do not see any of these guys being impactful NBA players. Rather than add more young players to a roster overflowing with youth, the prevalent theory seems to be that the Cavs are trying to move any and all of these picks. Here are some options that are being floated around:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade #31 & #33 for Paul Pierce.</b> This was originally thrown out by Bill Simmons on his podcast, but it apparently might be a real thing (although I doubt it). Getting Pierce for two lottery tickets would be a boon for the Cavs, even if he left after this season. Despite the bewildering narrative of last season that has emerged painting Pierce as washed-up, he still produced 7.8 WP, leading the Celtics and finishing 11th among SFs, and his toughness and experience would be invaluable to a team that is sorely lacking both. I think I have a better chance of getting selected at one of these picks than this trade has of happening, but if it does, happy days.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade #19 & #31 for Shawn Marion.</b> First off, it's crazy to me that Marion would cost the Cavs more than Pierce. While he was more productive from a Wins standpoint (10.7 to 7.8), I feel like Marion is one of those players over-valued by statistical analysis. His game fits very well surrounded by shooters, which is definitely not what would happen in Cleveland. I feel like a repeat of The Matrix's dark days in Toronto and Miami might be in store if this trade were to happen. That said, I would do it in a heartbeat, because even Toronto Shawn Marion is better than Reggie Bullock. (This trade will never happen, though, since the Mavs are desperately trying to unload their own picks.)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade for future picks.</b> I haven't actually heard this being proposed by anyone, but why not just pull a Bill Belichick and unload a 1st this year for a 1st in a year when the talent pool will likely be deeper (which is very likely, since this draft doesn't even seem to go one player deep)? The same could be done with the 2nd rounders, too.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Draft & stash Euros.</b> Every year, there seems to be some international player who all the draft experts say would be a top 10 pick if his contract wasn't such an issue. I have no idea if such a player exists this year, but if he does, this is the time to snatch him up. Perhaps the next Manu will fall into Cleveland's lap at #33 (but probably not).</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<i>Well, I lied at the top. I'm going to break this mega post up into a few different parts. Hopefully the rest will actually follow. Stay tuned!</i>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-73351433474060891522013-04-25T00:15:00.000-04:002013-06-30T09:35:24.406-04:002013 NFL Mock DraftUnlike past years, I know nearly nothing about this upcoming NFL Draft. Therefore, this year's mock will serve only to the best possible outcome for the Cleveland Browns (at least in my eyes).<br />
<br />
<u>1st Round</u><br />
<br />
1. Kansas City Chiefs-Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M<br />
2. Jacksonville Jaguars-Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah<br />
3. Oakland Raiders-Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida<br />
4. Philadelphia Eagles-Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon<br />
5. Detroit Lions-Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan<br />
6. Arizona Cardinals (via Cleveland for #7 & # #38)-Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma<br />
7. Miami Dolphins (via Arizona through Cleveland for #12, #77, & #111)-Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama<br />
8. Buffalo Bills-Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia<br />
9. NY Jets-Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama<br />
10. Tennessee Titans-Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU<br />
11. San Diego Chargers-Jonathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia<br />
12. Chicago Bears (via Miami with # 139 & #175 through Cleveland for # 20 & #50)-Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina<br />
13. NY Jets (via Tampa Bay)-Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina<br />
14. Carolina Panthers-Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri<br />
15. New Orleans Saints-Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU<br />
16. St. Louis Rams-Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia<br />
17. Pittsburgh Steelers-Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee<br />
18. Dallas Cowboys-Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas<br />
19. NY Giants-Margus Hunt, DE, SMU<br />
20. Cleveland Browns (via Chicago)-Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame<br />
21. Cincinnati Bengals-Alex Ogletree, ILB, Georgia<br />
22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington)-Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama<br />
23. Minnesota Vikings-D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston<br />
24. Indianapolis Colts-Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State<br />
25. Minnesota Vikings (via Seattle)-DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson<br />
26. Green Bay Packers-Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State<br />
27. Houston Texans-Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee<br />
28. Denver Broncos-Datone Jones, DE, UCLA<br />
29. New England Patriots-Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington<br />
30. Atlanta Falcons-Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia<br />
31. San Francisco 49ers-Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford<br />
32. Baltimore Ravens-Keenan Allen, WR, Cal<br />
<br />
<u>DREAM DRAFT FOR BROWNS</u><br />
<br />
1 (20). Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame<br />
2 (38). Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State<br />
2 (50). Damontre Moore, OLB, Texas A&M<br />
3 (68). Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky<br />
3 (77). EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State<br />
4 (104). Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State<br />
5 (164). Kevin Reddick, ILB, North Carolina<br />
7 (227). Jasper Collins, WR, Mount Union<br />
<br />
Eifert gives Brandon Weeden a dangerous underneath target to complement Josh Gordon and Greg Little on the outside, while Rhodes provides a physical defensive backfield partner for Joe Haden. Moore has consistency issues, but his tremendous upside is worth a shot at #50. Warford fills a need, as does Thomas (I honestly have never heard of either of them). Reddick is the kind of athletic underachiever UNC has been producing for years, while Collins is a local boy who will have a chance to work his way onto the field as a possession receiver. EJ Manuel in the 3rd round would be neat, especially since Coach Chud seems pumped about him. I would be happy with this haul. What do you guys think?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-56114985413164883322012-11-05T15:00:00.000-05:002012-11-05T22:18:15.169-05:002012-13 NBA Preview Wrap-Up<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ6VVQwUJ_Q9GXsCZaUaqA-W8I-WN2pTUzOK11r5LcPdkg78gglTfADdK_Vdx_71Ea79gneeLyxKhg9MWQnazafJhh3mvZhCObAFphUP_CLqiPGsMImuPoDno7e27R7IaUe8jt/s1600/heatspurs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ6VVQwUJ_Q9GXsCZaUaqA-W8I-WN2pTUzOK11r5LcPdkg78gglTfADdK_Vdx_71Ea79gneeLyxKhg9MWQnazafJhh3mvZhCObAFphUP_CLqiPGsMImuPoDno7e27R7IaUe8jt/s320/heatspurs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Before we get into the playoffs and awards, here's a quick recap of how each division should play out:<br />
<br />
<u><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-preview-atlantic-division.html"><span style="font-size: large;">Atlantic</span></a></u><br />
<div>
1. y-New York 57-25</div>
<div>
2. x-Boston 46-36</div>
<div>
3. x-Toronto 46-36</div>
<div>
4. Brooklyn 37-45</div>
<div>
5. Philadelphia 39-43</div>
<div>
<br />
<u><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/11/2012-13-nba-preview-central-division.html"><span style="font-size: large;">Central</span></a></u><br />
1. y-Indiana 48-34<br />
2. x-Milwaukee 47-35<br />
3. x-Chicago 45-37<br />
4. Cleveland 26-56<br />
5. Detroit 19-63<br />
<div>
<br />
<u><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/11/2012-13-nba-preview-southeast-division.html"><span style="font-size: large;">Southeast</span></a></u><br />
1. z-Miami 65-17<br />
2. x-Atlanta 52-30<br />
3. Washington 43-39<br />
4. Orlando 30-52<br />
5. Charlotte 18-64<br />
<br />
<u><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/11/2012-13-nba-preview-southwest-division.html"><span style="font-size: large;">Southwest</span></a></u><br />
1. y-San Antonio 53-29<br />
2. x-Dallas 50-29<br />
3. Memphis 43-39<br />
4. Houston 38-44<br />
5. New Orleans 37-45<br />
<br />
<u><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/11/best-caseworst-case-2012-13-nba-preview_5.html">Northwest</a></span></u><br />
1. w-Denver 56-26<br />
<div>
2. x-Oklahoma City 53-29<br />
3. x-Minnesota 53-29<br />
4. x-Utah 49-33<br />
5. Portland 33-49<br />
<br />
<u><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/11/best-caseworst-case-2012-13-nba-preview.html">Pacific</a></span></u></div>
<div>
1. y-LA Clippers 55-27<br />
2. x-LA Lakers 49-33<br />
3. Phoenix 29-53<br />
4. Sacramento 29-53<br />
5. Golden State 23-59<br />
<u><br /></u>
<u></u><br />
<a name='more'></a><u><br /></u>
<u><br /></u>
<u><span style="font-size: large;">Playoffs</span></u><br />
<u><br /><b>
EAST</b></u><br />
<u>1st Round:</u> Miami over Chicago; New York over Toronto; Boston over Atlanta; Indiana over Milwaukee<br />
<u>2nd Round:</u> Miami over Indiana; Boston over New York<br />
<u>Conference Finals:</u> Miami over Boston<br />
<br />
A healthy Derrick Rose makes Heat v. Bulls one of the more intriguing 1 vs. 8 series ever, but the Rose proves too rusty and the Heat prove too much for Chicago to handle. The Knicks easily handle the up-and-coming Raptors, while Boston endures through yet another slog of a series against the Hawks. Indiana and Milwaukee should be the most evenly matched first round series in the East, with the Pacers' experience carrying them to a close series win. The following round, however, sees the Pacers get smoked by a Miami team looking to prove last year's series was a fluke, while Boston handles New York with surprising ease. It probably won't go seven again, but Miami will again have to play to the last minute in every game to gut out a win over the stubborn Celtics and make their third straight Finals appearance.<br />
<br />
<u><b>WEST</b></u><br />
<u>1st Round:</u> Denver over Utah; LA Lakers over LA Clippers; Oklahoma City over Dallas; San Antonio over Minnesota<br />
<u>2nd Round:</u> San Antonio over Denver; Oklahoma City over LA Lakers<br />
<u>Conference Finals:</u> San Antonio over Oklahoma City<br />
In a battle of speed and athleticism vs. size, the Nuggets run past the Jazz. Despite being the lower seed, the Lakers handle the Clippers, while OKC beats Dallas for the second straight year. San Antonio provides a rude postseason welcoming to the young Timberwolves, and then is equally dominant against the young Nuggets. Oklahoma City proves too much for the new-look Lakers even without James Harden, but San Antonio picks up where they left off in Game 2 of last year's Western Conference Finals and advances to what could be Tim Duncan's NBA Finals swan song.<br />
<u><br /></u>
<u><b>NBA FINALS:</b></u> Miami Heat over San Antonio Spurs<br />
San Antonio swept LeBron's Cavs in his first Finals appearance; this season, James returns the favor.<br />
<u><br /></u>
<u><span style="font-size: large;">Awards</span></u><br />
<br />
<u>MVP:</u> LeBron James, Miami<br />
Other contenders: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant<br />
<br />
<br />
<u>All-NBA 1st Team</u><br />
G Chris Paul, LA Clippers<br />
G Andre Iguodala, Denver<br />
F LeBron James, Miami<br />
F Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City<br />
C Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
<u>All-NBA 2nd Team</u><br />
<div>
G Rajon Rondo, Boston<br />
G Dwyane Wade, Miami<br />
F Kevin Love, Minnesota<br />
F Blake Griffin, LA Clippers<br />
C Tyson Chandler, New York<br />
<br />
<u>All-NBA 3rd Team</u><br />
G Ty Lawson, Denver<br />
G James Harden, Houston<br />
F Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City<br />
F Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio<br />
C Joakim Noah, Chicago<br />
<br />
In reality, there is no way Ty Lawson, Serge Ibaka, or Kawhi Leonard make any of these teams. Instead, expect to find more "name" players such as Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, or Andrew Bynum, with Kyrie Irving being a dark horse candidate.<br />
<br />
<u>DPOY:</u> Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
Howard should return to his throne as the NBA's defensive king as he distances himself from his Orlando drama. Andre Iguodala, Tyson Chandler, Serge Ibaka, LeBron James, and Josh Smith will all be strong contenders, as well.<br />
<br />
<u>All-Defense 1st Team</u><br />
C Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
F Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City<br />
F Josh Smith, Atlanta<br />
G Andre Iguodala, Denver<br />
G John Wall, Washington<br />
<br />
<u>All-Defense 2nd Team</u><br />
C Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia<br />
F LeBron James, Miami<br />
F Kevin Garnett, Boston<br />
G Dwyane Wade, Miami<br />
G Mike Conley, Memphis<br />
<br />
John Wall is probably the craziest pick on these teams, but the Wizards really picked it up on defense at the end of last season, and Wall was a huge reason why. His strength, size, and athleticism allow him to defend both backcourt positions, and he plays passing lanes as well as any other NBA player.<br />
<br />
<u>ROY:</u> Anthony Davis, New Orleans<br />
Davis is so far ahead of the other rookies coming into this season that he would have to play pretty badly to not come away with the award. His biggest challenge may come from Damian Lillard, especially if the Blazers somehow find their way into the playoffs.<br />
<br />
<u>All-Rookie 1st Team</u><br />
C Anthony Davis, New Orleans<br />
G Bradley Beal, Washington<br />
F Jae Crowder, Dallas<br />
G Damian Lillard, Portland<br />
F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte<br />
<br />
<u>All-Rookie 2nd Team</u><br />
G Terrence Ross, Toronto<br />
G Jeremy Lamb, Houston<br />
G Dion Waiters, Cleveland<br />
F Thomas Robinson, Sacramento<br />
F John Henson, Milwaukee<br />
<br />
Highly drafted players who shouldn't sniff these teams: Harrison Barnes, Meyers Leonard, Austin Rivers, Kendall Marshall. Marshall, in particular, has been shockingly quiet coming into the season, and through the Suns' first two games the former Tar Heel hasn't seen one minute of floor time despite a clean bill of health.<br />
<br />
<u>6th Man:</u> Jose Calderon, Toronto<br />
Calderon is perfect off the bench. He doesn't turn the ball over, he can shoot, and he knows how to get a team into an offense. He isn't a flashy pick, but after James Harden went from 6th man to centerpiece in Houston, there aren't any slam dunk choices, so I went with the guy who will produce the most. <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Most Improved:</u> Gordon Hayward, Utah<br />
Hayward was fantastic by the end of last season, and with all of the attention the Jazz's young bigs will draw, he should find himself with plenty of room to maneuver on the wings. Other candidates include Greg Monroe, Paul George, and Evan Turner.<br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Coach of the Year:</u> Rick Adelman, Minnesota<br />
Adelman is already one of the more respected coaches in the league, and if the Timberwolves win over 50 games without Kevin Love for a large chunk of time, he is a shoo-in for the award. <br />
<br />
<u>LVP:</u> DeMar DeRozan, Toronto<br />
DeRozan was the pick even before the Raptors signed him to his absurd extension, the reasons for which have already been discussed in my <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-preview-toronto-raptors.html">Raptors preview</a>.<br />
<br />
<u>All-Andrea Bargnani Team</u><br />
G Aaron Brooks, Sacramento<br />
G Nick Young, Philadelphia<br />
F Antawn Jamison, LA Lakers<br />
F Andray Blatche, Brooklyn<br />
C Chris Kaman, Dallas<br />
<br />
These guys all suck, and you know it. <br />
<br />
<u>Bust of the Year:</u> Harrison Barnes, Golden State<br />
<br />
Barnes is a scorer who can't shoot or get to the hole, is a high-usage player who rarely passes, and is a decent-sized player who doesn't rebound. Other than that, he should work out great for the Warriors.<br />
<br />
<u>All-Adam Morrison Team</u><br />
F Harrison Barnes, Golden State<br />
G Austin Rivers, New Orleans<br />
C Meyers Leonard, Portland<br />
G Marquis Teague, Chicago<br />
F Perry Jones III, Oklahoma City<br />
<br />
Jones III is probably the most gifted player in this year's draft class; too bad motivation, desire, or heart aren't part of that gift package. <br />
<br />
<u>Matador of the Year:</u> Antawn Jamison, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
<u>All-Matador Team</u><br />
G Goran Dragic, Phoenix<br />
G Jameer Nelson, Orlando<br />
F Luis Scola, Phoenix<br />
F Antawn Jamison, LA Lakers<br />
C Ryan Hollins, LA Clippers<br />
<br />
The Suns should have a tremendous defensive squad this season.</div>
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-92176652719808427932012-11-05T12:00:00.000-05:002012-11-05T19:40:46.867-05:002012-13 NBA Preview: Pacific Division<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibM7pEbJ9VYvDrUrdDtUrEAlleeg7Iv3tdGgEwXlUVMi0USKEY6X0FgWmqm3SmUNblJpT5qjfltH5MediHGKZrelZNL_oU1J1nyWM155Z_AVQlF2IHqfUg4Ww35ej-KHtnVTu4/s1600/clippers_lakers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibM7pEbJ9VYvDrUrdDtUrEAlleeg7Iv3tdGgEwXlUVMi0USKEY6X0FgWmqm3SmUNblJpT5qjfltH5MediHGKZrelZNL_oU1J1nyWM155Z_AVQlF2IHqfUg4Ww35ej-KHtnVTu4/s320/clippers_lakers.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<u>Wins Produced Order of Finish</u><br />
<div>
1. LA Clippers 55-27<br />
2. LA Lakers 49-33<br />
3. Phoenix 29-53<br />
4. Sacramento 29-53<br />
5. Golden State 23-59<br />
<br />
I feel like the world will almost certainly end if things do in fact play out this way, but the Clippers project as the stronger LA team on the strength of a still-improving Blake Griffin (and DeAndre Jordan, for that matter), a full training camp and off-season of Chris Paul, and an upgraded backcourt rotation that will include Jamal Crawford and Chauncey Billups instead of Randy Foye, Nick Young, and Mo Williams. The backcourt will also be bolstered by expanded minutes for Eric Bledsoe, and Matt Barnes and Grant Hill will be an upgrade over Bobby Simmons and Ryan Gomes behind Caron Butler. The x-factor will be if Lamar Odom can approach his 6th Man of the Year performance in 2010-11, or if his putrid showing in Dallas is a sign his career may be done. Oh, and Vinny Del Negro could always screw things up completely. <br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<br />
The Lakers are a bonafide super team on paper, boasting sure-fire Hall-of-Famers at both backcourt spots and center, a possible Hall-of-Famer at power forward, and a small forward who at times looked like he could have been a Hall-of-Famer (if only he weren't so crazy). Unfortunately, all of these Hall-of-Fame players are old and/or somewhat broken down by injury, and there is very little backing them up. Steve Blake is probably the best option off of Mike Brown's bench, and that is saying much more about the Lakers' lack of depth than it does about Blake's ability. Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Metta World Peace, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard should be good enough to carry Blake, Antawn Jamison, and Jodie Meeks to the playoffs; the key will be if the big five have enough left once they get there. I see injuries and strategy forcing each of the starters out for at least 10 games a piece, which will lead to a lower win total but potentially fresher legs for a playoff push.<br />
<br />
Phoenix, Sacramento, and Golden State round out what could be the worst division top-to-bottom in the NBA, as I see only Golden State having a chance to out-perform their projection. Phoenix threw a lot of money after a lot of bad players (Wes Johnson, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O'Neal, a seemingly-washed up Luis Scola), and all that bad outweighs any good Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, and Goran Dragic may provide. Sacramento is a mish-mash of talented, flawed players who all want to shoot, shoot, shoot (except for Chuck Hayes), and adding Aaron Brooks to the mix is only going to make matters worse. If the Kings could shed some of their perimeter gunners (Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, or even Marcus Thornton) for a Kawhi Leonard-type player, they may actually have a nice nucleus of Isiah Thomas, Jason Thompson, and Kawhi Leonard-type player X to surround burgeoning superstar DeMarcus Cousins. Golden State, meanwhile, will probably once again have the league's most talented injured list, highlighted by Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut. David Lee will most likely also battle injuries, and last year's breakout star Brandon Rush is already out for the year with a torn ACL. I feel like Klay Thompson is overrated, and Harrison Barnes will be a bust. A healthy Curry, Bogut, and Lee should be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but at this point in their careers, healthy versions of that triumvirate may simply cease to exist.<br />
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<div>
<u>Wins Produced All-Pacific Team</u></div>
<div>
PG Chris Paul, LA Clippers</div>
<div>
SG Brandon Rush, Golden State</div>
<div>
SF Jared Dudley, Phoenix</div>
<div>
PF Blake Griffin, LA Clippers</div>
<div>
C Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
<u>Eyeball Test All-Pacific Team</u><br />
PG Paul, LA Clippers<br />
SG Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers<br />
SF Dudley, Phoenix<br />
PF Griffin, LA Clippers<br />
C Howard, LA Lakers</div>
<div>
<br />
Paul, Griffin, and Howard are slam dunk choices, with only Pau Gasol challenging Blake Griffin. Brandon Rush is obviously a shocking choice over Kobe Bryant, Tyreke Evans, or even his own teammate Klay Thompson, and he certainly won't outperform any of them now that he is out for the year. While Jared Dudley is a very solid player who I personally like, you don't think All-anything team when his name comes up. The spate of quality 3's (Metta World Peace? Caron Butler? Harrison Barnes?), though, gives Dudley a spot on the team by default.<br />
<br />
<u>Wins Produced Anti-Pacific Team</u><br />
PG Aaron Brooks, Sacramento<br />
SG John Salmons, Sacramento<br />
SF Lamar Odom, LA Clippers<br />
PF Antawn Jamison, LA Lakers<br />
C Ryan Hollins, LA Clippers<br />
<br />
Brooks and Salmons are older, much less-promising versions of the young chuckers making up the majority of the Kings' rotation. Jamison is perhaps the worst defender in the league, and his 17 ppg in Cleveland last year came on an absurd amount of shots. Ryan Hollins has never been good, and his continued NBA employment is a testament to how many chances 7 feet of height can get you. Everyone hopes Odom will get back to his normal production levels now that he's back in LA, but early returns are not promising.<br />
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<div>
<u>Wins Produced Pacific MVP:</u> Chris Paul, LA Clippers</div>
<div>
<u>Canaan's Pacific MVP:</u> Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
Paul is awesome, and if the Clippers meet their projections, he probably will finish in the top 3-5 in MVP voting. My vote goes to Howard, though, who should get back to his superstar levels now that he is in a more settled situation. Upgrading from Jameer Nelson to Steve Nash should up Howard's scoring, while the complete lack of defenders and rebounders around him should allow Howard's block and board totals soar.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Pacific LVP:</u> Aaron Brooks, Sacramento<br />
<br />
If you haven't gotten the point yet, the Kings signing Brooks may be the most baffling move of the off-season. Brooks wouldn't bring much to the table for any team, but on <i>this</i> team, he is so redundant and adds so much volatility to an already chaotic situation that it is reasonable to speculate if this is the first ever free agent signing made with tanking in mind.<br />
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<div>
<u>Pacific DPOY:</u> Dwight Howard, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
If Howard is healthy, he's the best defender in the league.<br />
<br />
<u>Pacific Matador of the Year:</u> Antawn Jamison, LA Lakers<br />
<br />
Jamison will have some stiff competition from Luis Scola, but his utter indifference for even making a show of defending is unmatched by few players in the league.</div>
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<div>
<u>Wins Produced Pacific ROY:</u> Thomas Robinson, Sacramento<br />
<u>Canaan's Pacific ROY:</u> Harrison Barnes, Golden State</div>
<div>
<br />
If we were just going off of efficiency and per minute production, Robinson would be my pick, too. Unfortunately, Robinson is going to have to split minutes with Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins, so the opportunity for big numbers will not be there. Barnes, on the other hand, is already the starting SF on the Warriors, and with Brandon Rush already out and Stephen Curry likely to battle an injury at some point, Barnes could find himself as the number 2 scoring option behind Klay Thompson. I'm not saying it will be efficient or even effective, but Barnes will put up high point totals, which will make him seem like the best rookie in the division.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Pacific Rookie Bust:</u> Harrison Barnes, Golden State<br />
As stated above, Barnes is not very efficient as a scorer, and he brings literally nothing else to the table. His teammate Fesutus Ezeli actually projects to be the worst player in the division this year, and without Andrew Bogut he's going to get a frightening amount of minutes.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-47924428350063405642012-11-05T09:00:00.000-05:002012-11-05T19:41:00.033-05:002012-13 NBA Preview: Northwest Division<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXZj6v0WKXk1yvQ1VExbL42CMlfnW1V6Y6vjhyphenhyphenhOH_e3YKho6HXt-wYLQrvt0QpOf97hfdeUKRxDvyDR2blgC5NeUE4pdSm8sSa0LRkPXvy2LV29FrFs1aoUCHXzIDGsBOJ-m/s1600/knucklepushups.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXZj6v0WKXk1yvQ1VExbL42CMlfnW1V6Y6vjhyphenhyphenhOH_e3YKho6HXt-wYLQrvt0QpOf97hfdeUKRxDvyDR2blgC5NeUE4pdSm8sSa0LRkPXvy2LV29FrFs1aoUCHXzIDGsBOJ-m/s1600/knucklepushups.jpg" /></a></div>
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<u>Wins Produced Order of Finish</u><br />
<div>
1. Denver 56-26<br />
2. Oklahoma City 53-29<br />
3. Minnesota <strike>56-26</strike> 53-29<br />
4. Utah 49-33<br />
5. Portland 33-49<br />
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This division is stacked, as even last place Portland has enough young talent to exceed their projection by a pretty good margin. Denver has a fantastic collection of young athletes, and the addition of Andre Iguodala gives them a defensive presence that has been missing. Oklahoma City probably cost themselves a title shot by trading James Harden, but Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb should make up enough of Harden's production that they won't completely fall off a cliff (Kevin Durant will have a lot to do with keep the Thunder afloat, as well). Minnesota will be without Kevin Love for close to two months following his knuckle pushups injury, but there schedule is weak enough and their supporting cast is improved enough that Rick Adelman should be able to keep things hovering around the .500 mark until Love returns. Utah's collection of young big men is unparalleled in the NBA, and if Enes Kanter or Derrick Favors bust out, the Jazz could end up stealing this division. Mo Williams isn't a pure point guard, but neither was Devin Harris, and Mo and the also-newly-acquired Marvin Williams will give Utah better spacing than they had last season. Portland has a fine young nucleus of LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum, and if Damian Lillard is anywhere near as good as he projects to be (and early returns are very promising) the Blazers will have one of the better young cores in the NBA. The problem is, the Blazers still might have the 5th best core in their own division, meaning that the Northwest should be the class of the NBA divisions for the next few seasons.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced All-Northwest Team</u></div>
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PG Ty Lawson, Denver</div>
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SG Andre Iguodala, Denver</div>
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SF Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City</div>
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PF Kevin Love, Minnesota</div>
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C Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota<br />
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<u>Canaan's All-NorthwestTeam</u><br />
PG Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City<br />
SG Iguodala, Denver<br />
SF Durant, Oklahoma City<br />
PF Love, Minnesota<br />
C Al Jefferson, Utah</div>
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<br />
For a comprehensive breakdown of Lawson vs. Westbrook, go <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/11/01/the-truth-behind-russell-westbrooks-greatness/">here</a>. I love Ty Lawson, and do think Westbrook is overrated, but if I had to choose one to build my team around, I would still take the greater upside Westbrook brings. Iguodala, Durant, and Love could find themselves on the 1st Team All-NBA, so their inclusion here is a no-brainer. The numbers like Nikola Pekovic quite a bit, and while he is a perfect compliment to Kevin Love, I'll take Al Jefferson's rebounding and myriad of post moves over Pekovic's superior defense and toughness.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Anti-Northwest Team</u><br />
PG Eric Maynor, Oklahoma City<br />
SG Raja Bell, Utah<br />
SF Wilson Chandler, Denver<br />
PF Anthony Randolph, Denver<br />
C Hasheem Thabeet, Oklahoma City<br />
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Eric Maynor is not the worst point guard in the division; Nolan Smith and Maynor's own teammate Reggie Jackson rate much worse. Maynor is coming off an injury,though, and so must re-establish himself as one of the better backup point guards in the NBA. Raja Bell is quickly nearing the end of his career, if he isn't already there, and all of the young talent amassed in Salt Lake City will hopefully have Bell dressed in a suit most game nights. Anthony Randolph is the worst-case scenario for Thunder rookie Perry Jones III, an absolutely salivating talent that has never been able to turn that talent into anything useful on a basketball court. Thabeet is one of the more famous busts in draft history, but he should see a decent amount of playing time now that Cole Aldrich is in Houston, which can't help the Thunder's title chances. Wilson Chandler isn't this bad, but he also isn't as good as most people think (Tas Melas from The Basketball Jones, for example, famously--and hilariously--claimed that Chandler was a star), and with so much talent on the Nuggets, he shouldn't see more than 20 minutes a night. <br />
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<u>Wins Produced Northwest MVP:</u> Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City</div>
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<u>Canaan's Northwest MVP:</u> Durant, Oklahoma City<br />
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If everyone gets tired of voting for LeBron, Durant will be first in line to take over as league MVP. A fourth straight scoring title would put Durant in rare company, and his improving defensive play, rebounding, and play-making proves KD is no one-trick pony. The Thunder will still be near the top of the West even without James Harden, and Durant is the number one reason why.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Northwest LVP:</u> Wilson Chandler, Denver<br />
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Again, Chandler isn't this bad, but the threat that he will take minutes away from Iguodala, Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried scares me. His contract is also ridiculous (5 years, $31.72 million), but the Nuggets seem to only sign players so they can use them in trades (Nene, Arron Afflalo), so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on Chandler's deal.<br />
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<u>Northwest DPOY:</u> Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City<br />
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Iguodala will give Serge a run for his money, but Ibaka's shot-blocking will be enough to hold off Iggy, even considering how Ibaka still doesn't quite have positioning and help defense down quite yet.<br />
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<u>Northwest Matador of the Year:</u> Raja Bell, Utah<br />
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At this point in his career, the former "Kobe Killer" is a statue, and if he ever even sees the floor for the Jazz this year, he will almost certainly be torched.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Northwest ROY:</u> Damian Lillard, Portland<br />
<u>Canaan's Northwest ROY:</u> Lillard, Portland</div>
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Lillard put up monster stats at Weber State, and it looks like he's going to pick up right where he left off in Portland. The two-man game between Lillard and LaMarcus Alldridge should be giving opponents nightmares for years to come.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Northwest Rookie Bust:</u> Meyers Leonard, Portland<br />
Leonard is a project whose ceiling cannot be much higher than Tyler Zeller's, Andrew Nicholson's, or Jared Sullinger's, who were all taken well after Leonard was snagged at #11. Why the Blazers would essentially punt on production from such a high pick this year when they have enough young talent in place to challenge for a playoff spot is beyond me. If Leonard is still on Portland's roster in 3 years, I will be shocked. </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-31619627739097399252012-11-03T09:00:00.000-04:002012-11-03T09:00:07.897-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Southwest Division<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdNoNGJfH-IPCAkquhlQWnY5hib7BWmKKJIoo3vPfW8U6kHb3fXg0k6v9Ry6Oz-QtmRcbHFzDFjwgLh6X1MEoo3JSRd3Xd0LCzwzNIATmKxGuBQLv2E3uQCqxwD52yh9woYkS8/s1600/Tim-Duncan1-436x656.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdNoNGJfH-IPCAkquhlQWnY5hib7BWmKKJIoo3vPfW8U6kHb3fXg0k6v9Ry6Oz-QtmRcbHFzDFjwgLh6X1MEoo3JSRd3Xd0LCzwzNIATmKxGuBQLv2E3uQCqxwD52yh9woYkS8/s320/Tim-Duncan1-436x656.jpg" width="212" /></a></div>
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<u>Wins Produced Order of Finish</u><br />
<div>
1. San Antonio 53-29<br />
2. Dallas <strike>53-29</strike> 50-32<br />
3. Memphis 43-39<br />
4. Houston 38-44<br />
5. New Orleans 37-45<br />
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As boring as it is to say, the Spurs are once again the team to beat in the Southwest, as Tim Duncan looks like he has at least one more season of borderline All-Star level play in him and Kawhi Leonard looks like he may be able to help Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili shoulder more of the load than any other supporting member San Antonio's Big Three has ever played with. Dallas will continue to chug along behind the coaching of Rick Carlisle and an underrated roster (if 2012 Diminishing Skills Most Improved Player Brandan Wright continues to hit 12 of every 13 shots, he's going to make me look like a genius) around a wounded Dirk Nowitzki (which is the reason I sliced 3 wins off their win total). Memphis seems like a team in need of a change, but there's enough talent that a deep playoff run isn't out of the question (given the Grizzlies can make the playoffs in the first place). Houston GM Daryl Morey finally got the superstar he had been seeking in James Harden, but all of the talent he shedded in stockpiling assets to chase a star has ironically left the Rockets in the exact same position they've found themselves in the past three seasons. The difference this year, of course, is that the future looks brighter in Houston with super young role players in place to support Harden's ascension into the league's elite. New Orleans had an up-and-down off-season. They have a new owner, a franchise player in Anthony Davis, and some fine supporting pieces in Ryan Anderson and Greivas Vasquez. Unfortunately, they also threw nearly $60 million over four years at Eric Gordon, who probably isn't worth that even when he isn't dealing with injury drama (which is almost never), and wasted the 10th pick in a reasonably deep draft on Austin Rivers. Rivers didn't have a position in college; I don't know what Monty Williams is going to do with him in the NBA.</div>
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<u>Wins Produced All-Southwest Team</u></div>
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PG Mike Conley, Memphis</div>
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SG James Harden, Houston</div>
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SF Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio</div>
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PF Ryan Anderson, New Orleans</div>
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C Anthony Davis, New Orleans<br />
<br />
<u>Eyeball Test All-Southwest Team</u><br />
PG Tony Parker, San Antonio<br />
SG Harden, Houston<br />
SF Leonard, San Antonio<br />
PF Tim Duncan, PF, San Antonio<br />
C Davis, New Orleans</div>
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<br />
Harden would have made these teams even before his dazzling first two games in Houston, but they certainly do not hurt the argument that he is better than Manu Ginobili, Eric Gordon, and Tony Allen. Anthony Davis looks like he's going to be a superstar from Day One, while Kawhi Leonard looks like he's going to build on his own stellar debut season. I feel like Ryan Anderson may find life a little harder without Dwight Howard drawing so much attention inside, so I'll take the creaky but steady Tim Duncan in his place. A healthy Zach Randolph has a case to be mentioned, as well. Mike Conley has turned into a very solid point guard, but there is no doubt in my mind that Tony Parker is the class of the Southwest point guard crop.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Anti-Southwest Team</u><br />
PG Jerryd Bayless, Memphis<br />
SG Toney Douglas, Houston<br />
SF Hakim Warrick, New Orleans<br />
PF Patrick Patterson, Houston<br />
C Chris Kaman, Dallas<br />
<br />
Jerryd Bayless is a scoring point guard who can't really score and doesn't really play the point, and who also has one of the dumbest spellings of a first name I've ever seen. Toney Douglas may be done after only four years in the league, as his shooting fell off a cliff last season and he finds himself in a bit of a logjam in Houston. Hakim Warrick has never been able to harness the athleticism that keeps getting him shots in NBA starting lineups, while Patrick Patterson followed up a solid rookie season with an atrocious sophomore campaign last season. In a division absolutely loaded at the power forward position, the Rockets need Patterson (or one of their 18 other young 4's) to step up. Chris Kaman hasn't had an above-average season since 2007-08, and he hasn't played more than 56 games in four of the past five seasons.<br />
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<div>
<u>Wins Produced Southwest MVP:</u> Anthony Davis, New Orleans</div>
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<u>Canaan's Southwest MVP:</u> Tim Duncan, San Antonio<br />
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Davis definitely will be an impact player out of the gate, but it's hard for me to give him the nod over the wily vet in San Antonio. James Harden may make himself heard here, as well.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Southwest LVP:</u> Toney Douglas, Houston<br />
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It's amazing that during Douglas's rookie season, Knicks fans were convinced he was a crucial part of their future. <br />
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<div>
<u>Southwest DPOY:</u> Anthony Davis, New Orleans<br />
<br />
Tim Duncan or Kawhi Leonard could make a case for themselves here, but Davis should be among the league leaders in blocks, and his ability to defend the rim while also jumping out to contest jumpers is unmatched.<br />
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<u>Southwest Matador of the Year:</u> Boris Diaw, San Antonio<br />
Diaw is a the fattest sieve ever, but thankfully, the rest of the Spurs are there to clean up his mess.<br />
<br />
<u>Wins Produced Southwest ROY:</u> Anthony Davis, New Orleans</div>
<div>
<u>Canaan's Southwest ROY:</u> Davis, New Orleans</div>
<div>
<br />
Davis is pretty much a lock for NBA ROY, and there really isn't much of a challenge within the Soutwest.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Southwest Rookie Bust:</u> Austin Rivers, New Orleans<br />
Rivers models his game after Kobe Bryant, but the problem with that is Bryant has nearly 5 inches and quite a few pounds of muscle on Doc's kid, as well as unbelievable athleticism (or at least he did early in his career). Rivers is undersized, only an average athlete, and overconfident in his abilities. This all points to a player who barely qualifies as a team's 7th option off the bench playing like he is the second coming of [insert Hall-of-Fame scorer], which is a surefire recipe for a disaster of a player. </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-28361796995620208442012-11-02T22:55:00.001-04:002012-11-02T22:55:31.858-04:00Chicago 115 Cavs 86: Dog PoopThe Cavs were so thoroughly outplayed tonight, there is no need for any kind of breakdown. Just dog poop.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGB1GI_93Mb05889muG6QoDdZtKmR_EMjbArqIPYE1QbGEhP0-2WizMaVF8rtrjUA32aUe_SfoKbvXuuVAFRZC62m5YBaMWSgS5BLrTCfDpuGxlPs2zQvlNWRXHmVL5YvbXreg/s1600/oldpoop.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGB1GI_93Mb05889muG6QoDdZtKmR_EMjbArqIPYE1QbGEhP0-2WizMaVF8rtrjUA32aUe_SfoKbvXuuVAFRZC62m5YBaMWSgS5BLrTCfDpuGxlPs2zQvlNWRXHmVL5YvbXreg/s1600/oldpoop.jpg" /></a></div>
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-24065128752039992952012-11-02T09:00:00.000-04:002012-11-02T09:00:09.683-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Southeast Division<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0S_n3CgMs9m6Igu1mc0geO7HnVFIOOiQnUroBapFTc-C5984fugf1ykQWk0I5EW1saFav_PaP6CINxw_JST7efrGqzfExE57FR4D0sk4uSgNPbvnBJkDsqO80diHeQ7uYyCNu/s1600/lebron-celebrates.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0S_n3CgMs9m6Igu1mc0geO7HnVFIOOiQnUroBapFTc-C5984fugf1ykQWk0I5EW1saFav_PaP6CINxw_JST7efrGqzfExE57FR4D0sk4uSgNPbvnBJkDsqO80diHeQ7uYyCNu/s320/lebron-celebrates.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Note: My plan was to do a fairly lengthy write-up on each team, as I have done for the teams of the Atlantic and Central divisions. Unfortunately, I'm out of time. Instead, I'm just going to do a quick wrap-up of each division.</i><br />
<br />
<u>Wins Produced Order of Finish</u><br />
<div>
1. Miami 65-17<br />
2. Atlanta 52-30<br />
3. Washington 43-39<br />
4. Orlando 30-52<br />
5. Charlotte 18-64<br />
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Spoiler alert: Miami is going to repeat as champions (as long as LeBron stays healthy). Atlanta will surprise some by achieving the exact same results they have the past four seasons or so in an entirely different matter. Instead of the iso-heavy attack of the Joe Johnson years, Danny Ferry has constructed a team of sharpshooters (Kyle Korver, rookie John Jenkins, Lou Williams) surrounding Al Horford. And I'm in the camp that says Josh Smith has a monster contract year. Washington will probably fall short with John Wall and Nene already out. The lineup they threw out opening night in Cleveland did not look like a contender for the NCAA tourney, let alone the NBA playoffs. Orlando continues to do it wrong, as the train wreck return they received for Dwight Howard still leaves them with too much talent to truly bottom out. Charlotte will be better than last year's historically awful team, but they will still be the worst team in the league. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist looks like he's going to prove me wrong and put together a solid rookie season, but there's only so much one man (child?) can do. <br />
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<u>Wins Produced All-Southeast Team</u></div>
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PG Jeff Teague, Atlanta</div>
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SG Dwyane Wade, Miami</div>
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SF LeBron James, Miami</div>
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PF Josh Smith, Atlanta</div>
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C Al Horford, Atlanta<br />
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<u>Eye-Bal Test All-Southeast Team</u><br />
PG John Wall, Washington<br />
SG Wade, Miami<br />
SF James, Miami<br />
PF Smith, Atlanta<br />
C Horford, Atlanta</div>
<div>
<br />
John Wall is still somewhat of an enigma, but--when healthy--he should be the class of this division. His playmaking still leaves a little to desire, but his defense really picked up at the end of last season. Teague has a chance to step up into a bigger role now that Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams are gone from Atlanta, and he should build on a promising first season as a starter. Wade, James, Smith, and Horford are perhaps the most slam dunk choices at their positions in the league.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Anti-Southeast Team</u><br />
PG A.J. Price, Washington<br />
SG Matt Carroll, Charlotte<br />
SF Tyrus Thomas, Charlotte<br />
PF Glen Davis, Orlando<br />
C Byron Mullens, Charlotte<br />
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Between Norris Cole, Corey Higgins, and Byron Mullins, the Southeast is home to the three worst players in the league by Wins Produced. Fortunately for Cole and Higgins, I am discounting rookies (as well as 2nd-year players). Higgins, in particular, was horrible, somehow accumulating -2.3 WP in only 423 minutes. But I digress. Mullens, despite decent point totals, was awful, especially at making baskets. Despite his seven feet of height, the former B.J. shot only 47.3% True Shooting (the average center is over 51%). Thomas was atrocious at nearly every facet of the game last season, and he is at the point in his career where his lack of production has begun to outweigh his potential. Big Baby is somehow both undersized and overweight and can't shoot, but at least he shoots a lot. Trading Brandon Bass for him would be bad enough, but when you add the four-year, $25.6 million contract the Magic gave Davis, it is little wonder this organization completely fumbled the Howard trade. Matt Carroll turned one season of hot shooting into a contract that has allowed him to stay in the league seemingly forever despite never approaching that shooting performance again. It seems fitting that both Caroll's and Desagana Diop's contracts expire the same year. Price really isn't that bad, but with Norris Cole being ineligible, Price is the point guard by default. <br />
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<u>Wins Produced Southeast MVP:</u> LeBron James, Miami<br />
<u>Canaan's Southeast MVP:</u> LeBron James, Miami</div>
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Give me King James by a hair over J.J. Reddick.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Southeast LVP:</u> Byron Mullens, Charlotte<br />
Shockingly, Mullins shot a better percentage on threes than Matt Carroll (23.5% to 18.6%) and finished 6th on the team in three point attempts (51). It is little wonder the Bobcats were ungodly at basketball last season.<br />
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<u>Southeast DPOY:</u> Josh Smith, Atlanta<br />
You could argue LeBron here, and I couldn't argue, but 3.1 combined blocks and steals, nearly 10 rebounds a game, and athleticism and length that makes Smith nearly as versatile as James on the defensive end is pretty damn impressive.<br />
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<u>Southeast Matador of the Year:</u> Ben Gordon, Charlotte<br />
I'm not sure I've ever even seen Gordon pass half-court when his team didn't have the ball, let alone actually try to check an opposing player.</div>
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<u>Wins Produced Southeast ROY:</u> Bradley Beal, Washington<br />
<u>Canaan's Southeast ROY:</u> Beal, Washington</div>
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Beal has a sweet stroke, and once John Wall and Nene get back on the floor, he should find himself open more often than not. Beal also can distribute, and he is a pretty good rebounder for a guard. If Charlotte makes any sort of push towards respectability, MKG may make some noise in this category, as well.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Southeast Rookie Bust:</u> Jeff Taylor, Charlotte<br />
It's hard to call a 2nd round pick a bust, but Taylor was projected as a first rounder heading into the draft, and he should see first rounder minutes on the Bobcats. Honestly, there aren't really any sure-fire stinkbomb rookies in this division. Great job, GMs!</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-85858635180200237072012-11-01T09:00:00.000-04:002012-11-01T09:00:07.773-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Central Division Wrap-Up<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<u>Wins Produced Projected Order of Finish</u><br />
1. <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-season-preview-indiana.html">Indiana 48-34</a><br />
2. <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-season-preview-milwaukee.html">Milwaukee 47-35</a><br />
3. <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-season-preview-chicago-bulls.html">Chicago 45-37</a><br />
4. <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-nba-season-preview-cleveland.html">Cleveland 26-56</a><br />
5. <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-preview-detroit-pistons.html">Detroit 19-63</a><br />
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<u>Wins Produced All-Central Team</u></div>
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PG George Hill, Indiana</div>
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SG Paul George, Indiana</div>
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SF Luol Deng, Chicago</div>
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PF Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee</div>
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C Joakim Noah, Chicago<br />
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<u>Eye-Ball Test All-Central Team</u><br />
PG Kyrie Irving, Cleveland<br />
SG George, Indiana<br />
SF Deng, Chicago<br />
PF Greg Monroe, Detroit<br />
C Noah, Chicago</div>
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Wins Produced and the Eye-Ball Test match up pretty well in the Central, with the obvious exception of George Hill over Kyrie Irving. (Of course, Derrick Rose would make the team over both of them if he were healthy.) I personally think Monroe is in for a monster year, but I don't think Ilyasova is necessarily a slouch. Carlos Boozer is hated by even Bulls fans, but he is still a productive player who could find himself in the running for this team with a heavier scoring load this year. Deng beats out a weak crop of small forwards (Danny Granger is his only legitimate competition), while Joakim Noah edges out Anderson Varejao and Roy Hibbert. As I touched on in my Pacers preview, Paul George has the potential to be a major star, and he shouldn't have much competition at his position from his division-mates.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
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<u>Wins Produced Anti-Central Team</u><br />
PG Jeremey Pargo, Cleveland<br />
SG Lance Stephenson, Indiana<br />
SF Kyle Singler, Detroit<br />
PF Austin Daye, Detroit<br />
C Slava Krastov, Detroit<br />
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Remember in my Pistons preview when I said Detroit's roster was littered with terrible players? I wasn't pulling your leg. Jeremy Pargo is so bad he couldn't even beat out David Sloan (who?) as Kyrie's backup, while Lance Stephenson inexplicably has a cult following among NBA nerds despite not really doing much of anything at any point in his young career.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Central MVP:</u> Joakim Noah, Chicago<br />
<u>Canaan's Central MVP:</u> Kyrie Irving, Cleveland</div>
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Noah is the backbone of the Bulls' stellar defense, a great rebounder, and an absolute pest to every opponent and their fans in the league. He's done nothing but win ever since his Florida days, and he will be a big reason why the Bulls won't fall off as much without their superstar as almost any other team in the league would. But Irving <i>is</i> one of those superstars, and he could very conceivably single-handedly make me look stupid by carrying a four-man (at best) Cavs team into the postseason.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Central LVP:</u> Austin Daye, Detroit<br />
Some players drafted after the Pistons took Daye--who has contributed 0.6 WP in his three years, highlighted by a stellar -2.2 WP last season--#15 overall in 2009: Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, Taj Gibson, DeJuan Blair, Marcus Thornton, Jodie Meeks, Chase Budinger,<br />
Danny Green, and A.J. Price. To be fair, you could probably come up with a similar list for any draft pick who hasn't panned out (for instance, I could make the exact same list with the same implications for James Johnson, who went one pick after Daye to Chicago), but Daye has somehow found a way to underwhelm even Charlie Villanueva. Ouch.<br />
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<u>Central DPOY:</u> Joakim Noah, Chicago<br />
Noah has some stiff competition from Anderson Varejao, Roy Hibbert, Samuel Dalembert, and teammates Luol Deng and Taj Gibson, but Noah has to be the pick for (nearly) match Varejao's activity and rebounding while also providing much stouter one-on-one post defense.<br />
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<u>Central Matador of the Year:</u> Charile Villanueva, PF, Detroit<br />
Villanueva actually had a career-high rebounding rate last season (12.8 per 48 minutes), but a below-average block rate and an astronomical personal foul rate of 6.7 fouls per 48. This points to laziness on defense, but really it could be laziness anywhere when it comes to Villanueva.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Central ROY:</u> Dion Waiters, SG, Cleveland<br />
<u>Canaan's Central ROY:</u> John Henson, PF, Milwaukee</div>
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Waiters certainly looked like a rookie of the year candidate in the Cavs debut, but I'd like to see him put similar numbers up for a month before I become a believer. Henson's biggest strengths--blocks and rebounding--translate well to the NBA, and he should be a big-time contributor off of Scott Skiles's bench from Day One.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Central Rookie Bust:</u> Marquis Teague, PG, Chicago<br />
Teague wasn't much of a distributor at Kentucky (4.8 apg, vs. 2.7 TO/G), but he didn't really score all that well, either (10.0 ppg on 49% True Shooting). He apparently has tremendous physical tools, but a guy who struggles running the point alongside four other draft picks and under the tutelage of John Calipari (who the Bulls know first-hand knows how to develop NBA point guards) may, just maybe, struggle to find a niche in the NBA. If everything breaks right, Teague may match C.J. Watson's meager contributions last season.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-24396123622803510812012-10-30T22:16:00.001-04:002012-10-30T22:18:40.454-04:00Cavs 94 Washington 84: Quick Thoughts <br />
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<ul>
<li>Holy mother, Anderson Varerjao. For proof of how scoring is an overrated component of winning basketball, Varejao dominated this game despite only 9 points. Two blocks is good, 22 rebounds is amazing, but not surprising (although it is a new career-high for Andy), but 9 assists is unreal. I don't know if running the offense through Andy in the high post is a new, permanent wrinkle of Byron Scott's offense or if Andy was just taking advantage of poor weakside help by the Wizards, but it was a joy to watch.</li>
<li>Kyrie Irving had the kind of quietly dominant games superstars tend to have throughout a season. I felt like Irving was saving himself for the 4th quarter a little until Fox Sports Ohio flashed the 24 points he had near the end of the 3rd quarter. A final line of 29 points and 6 rebounds on 55 percent shooting would be welcome nightly, although you'd have to hope he finishes with more assists than turnovers from here on out (3 assist to 4 turnovers tonight). Another sign Irving is quickly ascending to Superstar status is the call he got in the 4th when he obviously tripped over himself. The Cavs were trailing at that point, and a turnover there may have swung the game.</li>
<li>In the battle of #3 pick against #4 pick, Dion Waiters came out well-ahead, putting up a solid 17 points and 3 steals versus Bradley Beal's 8 points on 2-8 shooting. Waiters was active, and attacked the hole throughout the evening. He hit the three of the game in the 4th, and was much better than I gave him credit for in my Cavs preview, as well as exponentially more impressive than he his performances in Summer League and preseason suggested he could be. Hopefully, he keeps it up.</li>
<li>Alonzo Gee had a rough game. Four points on 2-9 shooting, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and three turnovers aren't good numbers, and it felt like he fouled out of this game 3 times (even though he finished with only 5 fouls). Fortunately for Gee (but unfortunately for the Cavs), C.J. Miles was even worse, shooting 1-5 with 3 turnovers and a bad decision nearly every time he touched the ball. Omri Casspi must be horrible to not see a second of action behind these two.</li>
<li>The bench bunch as a whole is a reason for real concern, as the combination of Miles, Donald Sloan, Boobie Gibson, Tyler Zeller, and Luke Walton surrendered most of a 12-point Cleveland lead entering the 4th in seemingly 2 minutes. If Gibson's shot isn't falling like it was in the 1st half (10 points, 7 in the 2nd quarter), this unit simply cannot score (Cleveland didn't score until there were 7 minutes left in the game). Zeller looked like a rookie big man, Sloan had one nice move negated by one of the worst calls I've ever seen (have you ever heard of a player pushing off with his knee?) but not much else to contribute, and when Walton checked in I seriously thought an assistant coach had suited up as a goof. I find it hard to believe Samardo Samuels or Jon Leuer couldn't provide more than Walton's bloated corpse did (2 points, 1 rebound, 2 turnovers), and I hope we see 100% more of the two young bigs in the (very) near future.</li>
<li>A win is nice, but it comes with a grain of salt. The Wizards are missing John Wall and Nene, and they were leaning heavily on Jordan Crawford and Earl Barron to carry them down the stretch. You can justifiably wonder why Crawford and Barron were in the game over A.J. Price and Emeka Okafor to begin with (if Okafor were in, for instance, i find it hard to believe Tristan Thompson would have gotten three straight wide open dunks from the exact same spot on the right block), but it also shows how thin the Wizards are. \The Cavs will have a better gauge of where the stand early on after Friday's game vs. Chicago.</li>
<li>Here's hoping Wizards' assistant coach Sam Cassell takes over for Randy Wittman before the end of the season, if for no other reason than to see him do his Big Balls dance as Washington jogs towards the huddle after a timeout. Of course, I suppose he could do that as an assistant, too. </li>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-66199252538547719232012-10-30T20:43:00.003-04:002012-10-30T20:43:42.836-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Detroit Pistons<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja5fUXHlaMb0nHma4pg-lLT-oXfgBSSD7TPf9gJUBBQMxTKtQNnOB1njff31mWfqydUrD_UXtGXenhL4VYuvvjIRW9S0Mu6Deh3X_JhJcaTEGfzD-zijyAOWnafUN00mIcmteN/s1600/gregmonroe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja5fUXHlaMb0nHma4pg-lLT-oXfgBSSD7TPf9gJUBBQMxTKtQNnOB1njff31mWfqydUrD_UXtGXenhL4VYuvvjIRW9S0Mu6Deh3X_JhJcaTEGfzD-zijyAOWnafUN00mIcmteN/s320/gregmonroe.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">With the NBA season <strike>fast approaching</strike> here, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="background-color: white; color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Arturo Galletti</a><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the depressing Detroit Pistons. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><u><span style="font-family: inherit;">Detroit Pistons 19-63 (5th Central)</span></u></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)</span></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Brandon Knight</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Rodney Stuckey</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Tayshaun Prince</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF Jonas Jerebko</td>
<td align="right">4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Greg Monroe</td>
<td align="right">8.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Corey Maggette</td>
<td align="right">-0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G Will Bynum</td>
<td align="right">-1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Charlie Villanueva</td>
<td align="right">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Andre Drummond*</td>
<td align="right">0.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">*Projected</span></i><br />
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Poor Greg Monroe. According to Wins Produced, he was the 19th best player in the league last year, but it was hard to tell among the wreckage that was the Detroit Pistons. And now, the key to the Pistons having a chance of making an impact on the league and getting eyeballs on Monroe is Andre Drummond, another big who's immense physical gifts threaten to completely overshadow Monroe's steady excellence. Even if Drummond and Monroe become the 2nd coming of Duncan and Robinson, however, the Pistons will struggle to win more than they lose with a roster overloaded with mediocre combo guards and tweener forwards. And if Drummond's pre-season flash proves to be a mirage and he is as raw as he seemed coming out of UConn, then Monroe will be on an island, a tall, proud Moai head surrounded by burning piles of feces.<br />
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Things aren't that bad, I suppose. Jonas Jerbko may be the first good Joe Dumars signing since, um, Chauncey Billups? Rodney Stuckey is servicable, and Brandon Knight has an excellent chance to become Rodney Stuckey. Tayshaun Prince probably has at least half a season left as an intriguing trade chip for a contender (although Dumars's often misplaced loyalty will probably keep him from ever cashing that chip in). Will Bynum remains one of my favorite bad players in the league, while Corey Maggette will bully his way to a boring, ugly 14-16 points per game. In fact, even Monroe is boring, despite his tremendous production. There's nothing that fun about watching a near-7-footer hitting 15 footers and finding back-door cutters from the high post, which is why Drummond is the only hope anyone outside Detroit bothers glancing the Pistons' way. While I think the former Huskie will have an awesome YouTube mix by the end of the season, I don't think he's quite ready to contribute on a consistent basis. It would not surprise me to see him put up a 15 point, 16 rebound, 4 block game followed by a month where he struggles to stay on the floor for more than 10 minutes a game. <br />
<br />
The Pistons finished strong under Lawrence Frank last season, following up a 4-19 start with a 21-22 finish. The off-season narrative would have you believe this late-season spurt toward mediocrity was based on vast defensive improvements, but Detroit's points allowed per game held steady around 95-96. The offense, however, improved by around 8 points per game over the last 43 games, boosted by Monroe becoming the focal point and Knight going from bust to alright. The problem is, beyond Monroe, Knight, Stuckey, and Jerebko (and maybe Drummond), the Pistons have a lot of <i>terrible </i>players. Unless Lawrence Frank is going to go with the rare six man rotation, Detroit will once again find themselves among the dregs of the league. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-59028508033631177772012-10-30T09:00:00.000-04:002012-10-30T09:00:11.228-04:002012 NBA Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2kZNB4lcbdwea4LhgnGXMxSNspZ2tLWzNxLNAFpPwIMHECvb1d3vP4DQnp1Rpu5AbgZ2dsRfd5pjTbrVL31xAfSt-7d-O7GmEs-P9yBBgQOWDeTNgMYpDYTlZC0VtdL7d9rGM/s1600/kyrie_irving_cavs_pistons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2kZNB4lcbdwea4LhgnGXMxSNspZ2tLWzNxLNAFpPwIMHECvb1d3vP4DQnp1Rpu5AbgZ2dsRfd5pjTbrVL31xAfSt-7d-O7GmEs-P9yBBgQOWDeTNgMYpDYTlZC0VtdL7d9rGM/s320/kyrie_irving_cavs_pistons.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="background-color: white; color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Arturo Galletti</a><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the still-a-year-away Cleveland Cavaliers. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><u><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cleveland Cavaliers 26-56 (4th Central)</span></u></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><u><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></u></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)</span></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182"><span style="font-family: inherit;">PG Kyrie Irving</span></td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: inherit;">3.9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">SG Dion Waiters*</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">2.5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">SF Alonzo Gee</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">5.1</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">PF Tristan Thompson</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">2.2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">C Anderson Varejao</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">4.2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">C Tyler Zeller*</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">1.6</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">G Boobie Gibson</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">0.5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">F C.J. Miles</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">-0.9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">F Omri Casspi</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: inherit;">1.8</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>*Projected</i></span><br />
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I don't know about you, but I am shocked Alonzo Gee led the Cavs in WP last season. That will happen, though, when a team's two best players combine to miss 56 games, as Anderson Varejao and Kyrie Irving did last season. On a per 48 minute basis, however, Varejao led the team with 0.257 WP48, which was 4th highest among NBA centers. Surprisingly, Gee still outperformed Irving, finishing 2nd on the team with 0.133 WP48, edging out Irving's 3rd place 0.119. While Irving certainly shot like a superstar (49.1% 2FG, 39.9% 3FG, 87.2% FT), and showed a knack for taking a game over late like few other rookies ever have, a poor turnover rate sank his production. That turnover rate isn't likely to improve much this year, either, as Kyrie finds himself surrounded by an even younger collection of teammates, none of whom project to help all that much on the scoring front.<br />
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Rookie Dion Waiters certainly should be able to put up eye-catching point totals, as he will almost certainly be the number 2 option behind Irving. Unfortunately, Waiters came to camp out-of-shape, and has done little to disprove all of the draftniks who scoffed when the Cavs took him 4th overall. While I personally like Waiters more than Harrison Barnes or Austin Rivers, I would have been much more satisfied if Chris Grant would have just taken Thomas Robinson and tried to figure out what to do with Tristan Thompson later. Either one would have been an asset off a currently weak bench, and--as hinted at above--it's pretty much a given that Varejao will miss some time with an injury. <br />
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In the event that does come to pass, Cavs fans should get an extended look at Tyler Zeller, who I was higher on than most entering the draft. Zeller was far from a stiff at North Carolina, and his ability to knock down a mid-range jumper should play nicely in the pick-and-roll with Kyrie. That being said, the price the Cavs paid to move up and get Zeller was steep, as it cost them the 24th pick and two high 2nd round picks. While the Mavericks essentially punted the first two picks on Jared Cunningham and Bernard James, they used the last selection to snag Jae Crowder, who projects as the 2nd best member of this year's rookie class. Zeller at best will be a Kosta Koufas-type, while Crowder could have been the running-mate Kyrie still lacks.<br />
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So is another dismal season in the cards for the Cavs? Dismal may be too strong a word, but it won't be successful, at least not in terms of wins. For the 50 or so odd games Andy and Irving are on the floor together (and, yes, I do see them each missing a decent chunk of time, as they probably will for the rest of their careers), the Cavs will float around respectable, posting maybe a 20-30 record in those games, pulling a few upsets, and generally looking like an actual NBA club. For the 32 games one or both of the Big Two are missing, though, look out below. <br />
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Without Irving, the Cavs will struggle to score 80 points, as Waiters looks very much like he would struggle to score 20 on 30 shots, and no one else on the roster seems capable of 25 on the best night of their lives, let alone putting up those numbers on a consistent basis. And without Varejao, opponents will hit triple digits by the end of the 3rd quarter, as only Gee has any defensive acumen right now. Thompson is a willing shot-blocker, but that willingness often takes him out of position to help his teammates or pull down rebounds (which partly explains how a guy who can be such a monster on the offensive boards--6.3 per 48, nearly double what an average power forward pulls down--can also be so putrid on the defensive glass--6.8 per 48, nearly a full rebound less than the average NBA power forward pulls down). Zeller will take up space in the middle, but to expect a game but slow-footed rookie to serve as the team's defensive backbone is asking too much. The rest of the roster is seriously lacking on the defensive end, including Irving, who (perhaps understandably) often takes it easy on defense to save up for the yeoman's work required of him on offense.<br />
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The Cavs currently have one potential superstar, one other legit NBA starter, a very nice role player in Alonzo Gee, a serviceable backup big who's head is already scraping against his ceiling in Tyler Zeller, a couple of promising young unknown's in Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters, and a bunch of roster filler. The presence of Irving and Varejao means one more piece could push the Cavs into playoff contention, but that piece either isn't ready yet (Waiters and/or Thompson), or isn't on the roster yet (one of the 12 potential draft picks Cleveland has over the next 3 drafts). In the meantime, it will still be fun to watch <a href="http://youtu.be/UgpXwCiRxgg">Kyrie</a>. <br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-76965865162526130342012-10-29T21:49:00.000-04:002012-10-29T21:49:07.140-04:002012-13 NBA Season Preview: Milwaukee Bucks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCowvd3AEgWIenJxIQP8jyP-9jYfaFTT4_im6Yr6uaM3pUvZBN4NQVbXE6qEfZo8YfvNkLR8G4yy8PGXAfjytRADD74K3qcpS4X8Ylv_lND13hDZq_iV6Z96V96iR2hDfN-Jdc/s1600/fan_g_ilyasova_sy_576.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCowvd3AEgWIenJxIQP8jyP-9jYfaFTT4_im6Yr6uaM3pUvZBN4NQVbXE6qEfZo8YfvNkLR8G4yy8PGXAfjytRADD74K3qcpS4X8Ylv_lND13hDZq_iV6Z96V96iR2hDfN-Jdc/s320/fan_g_ilyasova_sy_576.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="background-color: white; color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Arturo Galletti</a><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the intriguing Milwaukee Bucks. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><u>Milwaukee Bucks 47-35 (2nd Central)</u></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><u><br /></u></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)</span></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Brandon Jennings</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Monta Ellis</td>
<td align="right">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Mike Dunleavy</td>
<td align="right">5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF Drew Gooden</td>
<td align="right">1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Samuel Dalembert</td>
<td align="right">5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Ersan Ilyasova</td>
<td align="right">8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Luc Richard Mbah a Moute</td>
<td align="right">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G Beno Udrih</td>
<td align="right">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F/C John Henson*</td>
<td align="right">2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>*Projected</i></span><br />
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Can a team win with a tiny backcourt, one legitimate center, and seemingly 47 power forwards? The Milwaukee Bucks are going to try and find out this season. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis will team up to form the smallest backcourt in the league (although I suppose that would be true of any team that starts Ellis at the 2). Both are inefficient shooters, and one (probably Jennings) will have to sacrifice shots and become more of a playmaker for this crazy experiment to work. Beno Udrih and rookie Doron Lamb are the only other two guards on the roster, so expect Ellis and Jennings to pile up big minute totals.<br />
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Mike Dunleavy proved a sneaky good signing last season, making nearly 53% of his two-point shots and nearly 40% of his threes. His floor game suffered, though, and his drooping steal, block, and foul rates all point to inactivity on the defensive end of the floor. Drew Gooden continues to have terrible hair and be a serviceable four, but he should see his minutes eaten into by Ersan Ilyasova and rookie John Henson. Ilyasova is coming off a monster year, and at only 25 years old, there's reason to believe it wasn't just a contract push. Henson will help Samuel Dalembert protect the rim, as will Epke Udoh. Larry Sanders actually had a ridiculous 5.7 blocks per 48 minutes last season, but Sanders finds himself buried even further on Scott Skiles's bench, and his time in Milwaukee may be drawing to a close, as his recent suspension alludes to. Similarly, Tobias Harris had a tough time finding the floor last season, but the departure of Carlos Delfino may open up some minutes for the former Tennessee Vol. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute rounds out the endless stream of forwards, and he should provide his usual top-notch defense when he's healthy enough to play.<br />
<br />
Looking this roster over, it seems the idea is to have the starting line-up run up big point totals, and then have the subs come in and hold those leads. With the exception of Dalembert, none of the Bucks' starters are even average defenders (although Jennings does generate an above-average amount of steals), so first quarters may often be ending with 39-36 scores in Milwaukee. Other than Ilyasova, though, no one off the bench is much of a scorer (although Harris, Henson, or Lamb have potential to put up decent point totals), instead garnering their value from defense and rebounding. One has to think if Scott Skiles had his druthers, the bench unit would be seeing the heavy minutes while his free-wheeling starters came in for clean-up duty. Considering the investment made in Ellis and the likely investment about to be made in Jennings, though, it seems Skiles is stuck with the current setup. Which--assuming Jennings becomes more of a playmaker, Ilyasova gets more minutes than Gooden, and Henson, Udoh, Mbah a Moute, and Dalembert provide enough defense to keep things within striking distance for the Bucks' scorers--should result in a return trip to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. <br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-80712096389962351112012-10-29T12:00:00.000-04:002012-10-29T12:00:04.260-04:002012-13 NBA Season Preview: Chicago Bulls<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihN5yzSgb_g1fkaBxyzCBq6X_y3MeCiXb0zzhlP1g_Fz4VgWePQEKExmfK9Q9tUNsCAX-vDe7VIAqjxuHZSN4zXbsDmZJ7xiIRowpHVeQMIxX8kDZf-3mLfaogyVjQaOyS9eC6/s1600/Luol+Deng+Chicago+Bulls.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihN5yzSgb_g1fkaBxyzCBq6X_y3MeCiXb0zzhlP1g_Fz4VgWePQEKExmfK9Q9tUNsCAX-vDe7VIAqjxuHZSN4zXbsDmZJ7xiIRowpHVeQMIxX8kDZf-3mLfaogyVjQaOyS9eC6/s320/Luol+Deng+Chicago+Bulls.jpg" width="213" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></i>
<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="background-color: white; color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Arturo Galletti</a><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the scrappy Chicago Bulls. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><u>Chicago Bulls 45-37 (3rd Central)*</u></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)</span></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Kirk Hinrich</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Rip Hamilton</td>
<td align="right">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Luol Deng </td>
<td align="right">5.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF Carlos Boozer</td>
<td align="right">6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Joakim Noah</td>
<td align="right">11.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Taj Gibson</td>
<td align="right">4.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G Marco Belinelli</td>
<td align="right">2.1</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Vladimir Radmanovic</td>
<td align="right">1.4</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Nazr Mohammed</td>
<td align="right">0.6</td>
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<i>*With a miraculous Derrick Rose recovery, the Bulls actually project to win 50 games. This preview assumes, however, that Rose will miss most of the season.</i><br />
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With only 39 games of the reigning MVP at their disposal, the Bulls last year somehow scraped their way to 50 wins, one of only two teams to reach that plateau in the lockout-shortened season (the Spurs also won 50). The most productive frontcourt rotation in the NBA carried a backcourt that got below-average play from each of its members not named Derrick Rose or Ronnie Brewer, and head coach Tom Thibodeau once again coaxed maximum effort out of each and every one of his players. The Bulls' relentlessness and unwavering discipline overwhelmed opponents frazzled and stretched thin by a condensed schedule, but that advantage was negated come playoff time, and--once Rose was lost--Chicago's charge was stopped in the first round by the Sixers. Faced with a majority of the season without Rose, and with several key members of the NBA's wins leader over the past two seasons due for new contracts, the Bulls entered the off-season at a crossroads.<br />
<br />
One route available to the Bulls was to hope Rose followed the footsteps of athletes like Adrian Peterson and returned much faster than anyone thought possible from an ACL tear and keep the band together to make another run at the #1 seed. Of course, that would have meant matching Houston's $25 million offer sheet to Omer Asik, guaranteeing Kyle Korver's $5 million salary for 2012-13, and picking up Ronnie Brewer's $4.37 million team option. Assuming the Bulls would have foregone adding Marco Belinelli, Vladimir Radmonovic, and Nazr Mohammed, the obligations to Asik, Korver, and Brewer would have put Chicago's 2012-13 payroll at around $84.3 million. Considering Jerry Reinsdorf has never been a big spender (even in the MJ-Pippen days), and that the success of the season would still be resting on a medical miracle, it is not surprising the Bulls let Asik, Korver, and Brewer walk.<br />
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Another path that could have been taken would be to follow the blueprint of the 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs. Like the Bulls, those Spurs were in the midst of a stretch of gaudy regular season win totals followed by disappointing playoff exits. The Spurs had one super-duper star in David Robinson, and a collection of solid, steady scrappers surrounding him. When Robinson went down 6 games into the season with a balky back, the Spurs went into shutdown mode, getting an average of 57 starts from their other four starters. San Antonio skidded to a 20-62 record, won the lottery that May, and selected Tim Duncan that June, sparking a decade-and-a-half of dominance. With the advanced knowledge that their own super-duper star would be limited to a handful of games in 2012-13, should the Bulls have similarly tanked their season in the hope of teaming Rose with Shabazz Muhammed?<br />
<br />
Based on the moves made by the Bulls front office, it seems they are thinking more of the latter than the former. While they would have been expensive, Asik, Korver, and Brewer were productive (a combined 15.67 WP last season). Asik teamed with Taj Gibson to form the most formidable defensive bench tandem in the league, while Brewer and Korver solved the shooting guard problem the Bulls and their fans always seem to think they have. The drop-off from those three to Mohammed, Belinelli, and Radmonovic will be stark, and Chicago will go from having one of the best benches in the NBA to having a real depth problem. Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson should be able to provide the same level of production C.J. Watson and John Lucas III provided in Rose's absence last year, which won't be that good, but also won't be the disaster the new bench bunch will be, either. Rip Hamilton is probably done as a player, which actually won't hurt that much since I don't think he'll be healthy enough to play all that often. What does hurt is his $5 million salary, which could have been used to bring back useful players like Brewer or Korver. <br />
<br />
The draft was another head-scratcher, as the Bulls used the 29th pick to select Marquis Teague, who looked unprepared to run the point at Kentucky, let alone orchestrate an NBA offense. If he sees more than 10 minutes a night, I will be shocked. Instead of taking a raw project who probably won't be ready to contribute for another two seasons, the Bulls would have been better served snagging a more polished player such as Jeff Taylor, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, or even Quincy Acy. The Bulls have been one of the best drafting teams in the league in recent years, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt on Teague, but my initial take-away is that he will prove to be a wasted pick.<br />
<br />
So we can expect to see the Bulls sitting in on the lottery next spring, right? Nope. Despite the front office's best efforts, a high lottery pick does not appear to be in the Bulls' future. The frontcourt trio of Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah should still provide enough to carry the Bulls to victory against most teams, while Tom Thibodeau has proven he can coax nightly excellence from nearly any roster. Instead of embracing either path laid out above, the Bulls instead are toeing the line, cutting salary and drafting projects while also hoping their coach and front line can keep the cheap scraps collected this offseason afloat until Rose's return. The sad truth is, though, that even with the gang back together and a full season of Rose, the Bulls would probably have the fourth best shot at winning a title, well behind Miami, Oklahoma City, and the Lakers. If Bulls fans truly want to return to championship glory, they should pray Rose takes his time coming back, Noah, Deng, and/or Boozer miss boatloads of time, and Thibodeau burns out and quits. Only then will Chicago find themselves in position to give Rose the running mate he truly needs. Until then, expect another overachieving regular season followed by a first round flameout. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-3787669719911858842012-10-26T09:00:00.000-04:002012-10-26T09:00:10.731-04:002012-13 NBA Season Preview: Indiana Pacers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnUfCqKr1Xq2JKHhyphenhyphen80WoBvR47H6c8ySMAye4Gk2nBul5LwZHwOOzAyN0HuKA99y4HmSf-4E3ZJ790sGSAH4gqbBTX32bnHue4hUu_sXKpZ7Z3NIPtjE7JFzo3X2ZDbV2toPnE/s1600/paul-george.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnUfCqKr1Xq2JKHhyphenhyphen80WoBvR47H6c8ySMAye4Gk2nBul5LwZHwOOzAyN0HuKA99y4HmSf-4E3ZJ790sGSAH4gqbBTX32bnHue4hUu_sXKpZ7Z3NIPtjE7JFzo3X2ZDbV2toPnE/s320/paul-george.jpg" width="214" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/" style="color: #4d469c; text-decoration: none;">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="background-color: white; color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Arturo Galletti</a><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the maxed-out Indiana Pacers. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<span style="color: #444444; font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><u>Indiana Pacers 48-34 (1st Central)</u></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)</span></span><br />
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG George Hill</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">4.5</td>
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<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Paul George</td>
<td align="right">7.9</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Danny Granger</td>
<td align="right">4.9</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF David West</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Roy Hibbert</td>
<td align="right">6.5</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Tyler Hansbrough</td>
<td align="right">1.4</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F/C Ian Mahinmi</td>
<td align="right">2.4</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G D.J. Augustin</td>
<td align="right">1.1</td>
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<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F/G Gerald Green</td>
<td align="right">0.9</td>
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<br />The Pacers are in the odd position of being young (average age of 25.4, tied with Charlotte for and Sacramento for 9th youngest in the league) yet also of being exactly what they will likely be for the foreseeable future. Following the wild Stephen Jackson-Jamal Tinsley days, Larry Bird set out to remake the Pacers as a team that kept its nose clean and maximized every ounce of talent it had. To his credit, Bird accomplished that goal, and his vision nearly exceeded all expectations last spring when it briefly looked like Indiana would discard the Heat from the playoffs. However, precisely because this team plays as hard as it can at all times, the almost-upset of Miami may be as good as it gets in Indianapolis. Even at their best, none of the current Pacers are good enough to rise above the upper-2nd tier of the Eastern Conference, where the Pacers may reside for the next few seasons following the off-season extensions doled out to George Hill and Roy Hibbert.<br />
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Not that there's anything wrong with consistently making the playoffs with home court advantage in the 1st round. Nor is it the worst thing in the world to have a collection of likable players who will never dog it. What is frustrating, however, is when you punt on two seasons putting the pieces in place for a post-Reggie Miller contender and come away instead with the next...the next...um, well the next what I'm not exactly sure. <br />
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When searching for a team comparable to this current Pacers squad, I come up empty. The Hawks of the past few seasons had the same not-quite-far-enough postseason runs as these Pacers, but the ceiling was always higher in Atlanta due to the presence of Al Horford and Josh Smith, who are the deluxe versions of Roy Hibbert and Danny Granger, respectively. The Tracy McGrady-Yao Ming Rockets similarly could never quite make the leap into true "contender" status, but, again, Houston's upward trajectory was stunted by injuries, not by a talent-cap on their best players. The late-90's/early-2000's Jazz consistently made the playoffs without scaring a soul, but those teams were age-ed remnants of a powerhouse dragging themselves into the postseason year-after-year on the still-potent fumes of Stockton-and-Malone's Hall-of-Fame careers. As mentioned above, these Pacers are young, and most of them should have at least a decade of a career ahead of them. <br />
<br />
To find the most apt comparison, I must leave the sport of basketball, and turn instead to the 2007 Cleveland Indians. Like these Pacers, those Indians were built from the rubble of a 90's powerhouse that could never quite get over the hump. The Tribe was young, and they advanced to the second round of the playoffs, where they nearly upset the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox before blowing a 3-1 series lead. Despite their youth, the Indians would never reach such heights again, as they haven't even really sniffed postseason contention since then. While the Pacers should be playoff-mainstays the next few seasons, the similarities are striking. Several players on the Tribe became "what they are" that season, and the same could be said for several Pacers in 2011-12. <br />
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(A closer look, of course, reveals those Indians aren't a great comparison, either, since they had legitimate superstars in C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee in the minors, and a healthy Grady Sizemore at the height of his powers, but we can just ignore that for the sake of this analogy.)<br />
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In his fourth NBA season, Roy Hibbert exploded his way onto the All-Star team, improving from 1.0 WP in 2010-11 to 6.5 WP in 2011-12. While I don't see him regressing too much (he is still only going to be 26 this year), I also don't see him getting much better. While Hibbert does not seem the type to get paid and then mail it in, it also seems completely unrealistic to expect another 5-Win jump in production into the MVP-level. Furthermore, if the league truly is gravitating toward more small ball lineups similar to what the Heat whipped out following Chris Bosh's injury (which I am skeptical of, since 29 teams do not have LeBron James to plug into any position), Hibbert will find himself pinned to the bench, either in foul trouble or because Frank Vogel justifiably cannot match Hibbert up with anyone on the opposition. A 5-7 Win center is a fine commodity to have in today's NBA, but to expect Hibbert to suddenly become a franchise center is asking too much.<br />
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Danny Granger, meanwhile, has failed to earn the max contract he was handed in 2008, but due to the economics of the league, it was a deal the Pacers had to offer. Granger--like many of his teammates--has consistently hovered around the 5.0 WP range for his entire career, which, again, is solid, but is also never going to win a player an MVP (unless his name is <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/players?q=iverson&season=2000&utf8=%E2%9C%93">Allen Iverson</a>) nor his team a championship. The former Lobo is essentially an average NBA SF, with his below-average rebounding and assist rates offset by his above-average scoring (which is the product of a high volume of shots, not an efficient shooting percentage). There was once a time when Granger was in the discussion as a fringe-top 10 guy, but those days are long gone. Instead, he's another fantastic role player on a team full of role players.<br />
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The one Pacer with the capacity to rise above the role player distinction is Paul George, the 6-10 shooting guard. Aged 22 and still very much a work-in-progress, George is the x-factor that gives Indiana fans a glimmer of hope that a series of 2nd round exits aren't in their future. In his sophomore NBA season, George off-set a slight decrease in his 2pt FG% with a marked improvement from downtown, increasing his scoring average with only a negligible increase in his shot attempts. He is a well-above-average rebounder, a decent passer, and a burgeoning nightmare for the opposition on the defensive end. If he can improve his ball-handling and decrease his turnover rate, while also cutting down on his fouls a bit (which should happen anyway if his elevated play starts garnering respect from refs), George could find himself making the entirety of this post moot. An improvement from Year 2 to 3 similar to what happened from Year 1 to 2 would elevate Granger into the upper echelon of not just shooting guards but of the entire league, and would make the Pacers an even more dangerous foe than the Heat ran into last year. <br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-29236132789218603452012-10-25T09:00:00.000-04:002012-10-25T09:00:06.734-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division Wrap-Up<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<u>Wins Produced Projected Standings</u></div>
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1. New York 57-25</div>
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2. Boston 46-36</div>
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3. Toronto 46-36</div>
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4. Philadelphia 39-43</div>
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5. Brooklyn 37-45</div>
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<u>Wins Produced All-Atlantic Team</u></div>
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PG Rajon Rondo, Boston</div>
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SG Landry Fields, Toronto</div>
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SF Gerald Wallace, Brooklyn</div>
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PF Kris Humphries, Brooklyn</div>
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C Tyson Chandler, New York<br />
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<u>Eyeball Test All-Atlantic Team</u><br />
PG Rondo, Boston<br />
SG Joe Johnson, Brooklyn<br />
SF Carmelo Anthony, New York<br />
PF Kevin Garnett, Boston<br />
C Chandler, New York<br />
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While I have confidence that Wins Produced gets most things right, there are certain things that stats tell us that our eyes have trouble believing. Landry Fields and Gerald Wallace being better than Joe Johnson and Melo, respectively, is one of those things. Most would probably even take Paul Pierce and Jason Richardson over Fields and Wallace, and I could not blame them. Chandler beats out Andrew Bynum as the top pivot man in the division, based on Chandler's edge on the defensive end as well as Bynum's inconsistent behavior, health, and effort. Kevin Garnett is technically a center, but it's tough to leave him off an all-Atlantic team, so there he is. Keeping KG at center, the eyeball test would probably go with Humphries, as well, although I'm sure a few of you misguided souls out there are screaming Amare's name right now.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced All-Bargnani Team</u></div>
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PG Tyshawn Taylor, Brooklyn<br />
SG Nick Young, Philadelphia<br />
SF DeMar DeRozan, Toronto<br />
PF Andray Blatche, Brooklyn<br />
C Fab Melo, Boston<br />
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Named in honor of Andrea Bargnani continued ineptitude in the eyes of Wins Produced (career average of -3.2 WP; twice the lowest rated player by WP), this team is a motley collection of those players Wins Produced sees taking the most away from their teams. Taylor and Melo can be excused since they are rookies, but there isn't much to suggest they will ever be above-average pros (although I have a personal, irrational b-ball crush on Taylor, stats be damned, and believe he can be a poor man's Russell Westbrook). I touched on DeRozan's shortcomings in my <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-13-nba-preview-toronto-raptors.html">Raptors preview</a>, while Nick Young is the deadly double threat of a gunner who can't shoot. Andray Blatche's place on this team should need no explanation, but if you need evidence, <a href="http://funalize.com/andray-blatche-the-man-who-just-wanted-a-triple-double/">here you go</a>. I have no idea why the Wizards struggled so badly when Young and Blatche were two of their building blocks. <br />
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<u>Wins Produced Atlantic MVP:</u> Tyson Chandler, New York</div>
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<u>Canaan's Atlantic MVP:</u> Kevin Garnett, Boston<br />
I love Chandler, and believe he is a true difference-maker in this league, but the truth is that if the Knicks perform at their projected level, there is no way anyone but Melo gets the bulk of the credit. While Garnett is no longer even the player he was when he first came to Boston, his defense, intensity, and ability to still hit midrange jumpers at will make him the most crucial member of his respective team in the division.<br />
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<u>Wins Produced Atlantic LVP:</u> Nick Young, Philadelphia<br />
Just a reminder: the Sixer amnestied Elton Brand, a 6.4 WP player last year, to sign Young, meaning that a player who <i>took away</i> 2.2 wins last year will cost Philly nearly $22.1 million this season. Add in that Young was signed to replace super-sub Lou Williams and the palm cannot hit the face fast enough.<br />
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<u>Atlantic DPOY:</u> Tyson Chandler, New York<br />
It's hard to beat the defending NBA DPOY.<br />
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<u>Atlantic Matador of the Year:</u> Andrea Bargnani, Toronto<br />
Last year, Bargnani had a worse block rate than Anthony Carter and a worse steal rate than Aaron Gray. Bargnani is as active as a bean bag chair on defense, and you would have to think that won't fly with Dwane Casey very much longer.</div>
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<u>Wins Produced Atlantic ROY:</u> Terrence Ross, SG, Toronto<br />
Ross should get the playing time and score enough to get himself at least a mention as a successful rookie (there's really no competition when it comes to who is winning the big prize, is there?). If the Raptors do indeed make the playoffs, it makes his case that much stronger.<br />
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<u>Canaan's Atlantic ROY:</u> Jared Sullinger, PF, Boston<br />
This is probably some hometown bias, but I really believe Sullinger will be a very effective pro on offense if his back is right. He's short, but sturdy, and he has a rare gift for getting himself into the right position every time he is on the block. Late last season, he also started flashing a perimeter post game similar to Dirk's, which would be a potent addition to an already full offensive arsenal. Defensively, things are probably going to be ugly, especially when Sully finds himself switching onto the likes of Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook in the pick-and-roll. Still, I think his offense will outweigh his lack of defense, and also that Doc Rivers and the wily vets on the C's are savvy enough to effectively hide Sullinger on defense.</div>
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<u>Wins Produced Atlantic Rookie Bust:</u> Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto<br />
Wins Produced don't think that highly of Valanciunas, and I think even less of him. This is probably bitter eggs on my part (or whatever that saying is; sour beans? tart grapes?), since I've hated Valanciunas ever since the Cavs passed on him in favor of Tristan Thompson. I don't personally hate him, of course, but my fear that the Cavs passed on the next Zydrunas Ilgauskas drove me to wish the younger Lithuanian nothing but the worst. The fact that he projects to struggle so much has me breathing a sigh of relief (at least for now).<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-84816277619858109412012-10-24T15:00:00.000-04:002012-10-24T15:00:05.434-04:002012-2013 NBA Preview: Brooklyn Nets<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJUYootkhKqqpuiToHSnmo4WeJ_Py3jII-wFCja43t28urk-e-dLYrLU2WW4PvwZW1VUv1iLXjpNMfHyZfzvPHbJJgbZ4cr_E85ky0eXxbfPeEL8D5_D9J4eWPugPInoIlFjOt/s1600/brooklyn-nets-black-00.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJUYootkhKqqpuiToHSnmo4WeJ_Py3jII-wFCja43t28urk-e-dLYrLU2WW4PvwZW1VUv1iLXjpNMfHyZfzvPHbJJgbZ4cr_E85ky0eXxbfPeEL8D5_D9J4eWPugPInoIlFjOt/s320/brooklyn-nets-black-00.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i>, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="font-style: italic;">Arturo Galletti</a><i>. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the disappointing Brooklyn Nets. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<a name='more'></a><i><br /></i>
<u>Brooklyn Nets 37-45 (5th Atlantic)</u><br />
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TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Deron Williams</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Joe Johnson</td>
<td align="right">5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Gerald Wallace</td>
<td align="right">7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF Kris Humphries</td>
<td align="right">8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Brook Lopez</td>
<td align="right">-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Josh Childress</td>
<td align="right">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F/C Reggie Evans</td>
<td align="right">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G MarShon Brooks</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G C.J. Watson</td>
<td align="right">0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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I touched on this in a <a href="http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2012/07/best-caseworst-case-brooklyn-nets.html">previous post</a>, but all of the big-name moves the Nets made this off-season are probably for naught. While Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, Reggie Evans, and C.J. Watson are certainly improvements over the players they are replacing, going from bad to average is not a crucial step toward contention. The crux of many arguments for the success of this wild, expensive experiment is that Deron Williams will finally return to his MVP-level Utah self, but I'm not so sure that happens.<br />
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While a member of the Jazz, Williams was an attacking menace of a point guard, using his size and quickness to bully his way into the lane. At his zenith, Williams was shooting nearly 5 shots per game at the rim and converting on over 60% of those attempts. He was at the top of the league among points guards at converting and-1's, and his True Shooting % was consistently in the upper 50's. From 2007-10, he averaged 11.8 WP per season, and there was a strong argument to be made that he was the best point guard in the league.<br />
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Since becoming a Net, however, Williams has transformed into a completely different player. His attempts at the rim have dipped below 4 per game, while his 3 point attempts have soared to over 6 per game (which isn't exactly appropriate when only 1 in 3 of those jacks is going in). He's turned the ball over more than he ever had since coming to the East Coast, and his defense--while never his strong suit--has become a liability. Granted, all of these things can be attributed to the lack of talent around him, but I'm not so sure the talent that is now present is going to change things all that much. <br />
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Johnson, the centerpiece of the Nets new acquisitions and reportedly the reason Williams chose to re-up in Brooklyn, is hardly the elixir Williams needs. A Ray Allen-type drawing defenses out of the paint would be ideal to returning Williams to his previous heights, and, while Johnson has good range beyond the arc, he is also a notorious iso-hog who is going to turn <i>Williams</i> into the spot-up shooter. Instead of either opening up shots for his backcourt-mate, I instead envision the two taking turns dribbling the shot clock down at the top of the key while their teammates stand around.<br />
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Kris Humphries and--to a lesser extent--Gerald Wallace don't really even want the ball on offense, instead contenting themselves with garbage points off offensive rebounds and slashes to the hoop. Both of these qualities are admirable, but, again, they don't really lend themselves to helping Williams return to elite status. Brook Lopez, on the other hand, needs to score to have any value what-so-ever, since he rebounds at a pathetic rate and is a sink hole on defense. Whether or not the Nets will find time to look for Lopez on the block between Williams and Johnson going 5-on-1 and Wallace knifing through the lane is up for debate. The max deal doled out to Lopez just, I don't know, because makes Johnson's albatross deal look like a bargain. What Lopez has done to garner a 4 year contract attached to any dollar amount eludes me, let alone such a commitment worth nearly $61 million. <br />
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The low-end signings the Nets brought in are a mixed bag. Reggie Evans will provide 15-20 minutes of bruising efficiency (stemming largely from the fact that we knows he can't shoot and so will not shoot), while Josh Childress was sneaky productive in Phoenix last year. Childress will be hard-pressed to match that production as he now finds himself behind Johnson and Wallace, who both typically play heavy minutes. C.J. Watson is barely passable as an NBA player, and the Nets probably would have been better served giving rookie Tyshawn Taylor a shot as Williams's backup (although, to be fair, Taylor does project as one of the worst rookies this season). European big man Mirza Teletovic was lured over to perhaps provide Ryan Anderson-like production off the bench, but the projections see Brian Skinner-like production instead. Andray Blatche was brought in for the NBA hipsters in Brooklyn to blog about, I guess, since he has no business on an NBA roster. MarShon Brooks will probably see his raw numbers drop as actual NBA players are on the roster to take shots, but his efficiency should continue to hover just below league average. <br />
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Add it all up, and you have an unusual roster with a style that is hard to pin down. The Nets find themselves sort of in-between on offense, too old to run, and too bad at shooting to be a dynamite half-court team. That leaves defense to carry Brooklyn to the post-season in their inaugural season in their new home, but with Lopez providing a fat zero in the middle, Humphries struggling with knowing where he is on the court, and Williams saving himself for his chuck-a-thon vs. Johnson on the other end, I don't see an elite defense here, despite the best efforts of Gerald Wallace. In the first year of a four-year commitment to this collection, the Nets find themselves outside of the playoffs, with little hope for significant improvement down the line.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-75208947429739550022012-10-24T12:00:00.000-04:002012-10-24T12:00:11.146-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Philadelphia 76ers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiWNIxJ13Pf_RlCg6c4qgmbqpwcxf9ltgrSQhdf3E-dBU5YpVfoQM4ME_QFd5oELUChF0v8nNwI06JSHl6yOjaq-0rt0V-R6Ohvk9aETiWMksC4PG1FkL7HH_ZZlBeIWZzt6aE/s1600/fat-76ers-fan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiWNIxJ13Pf_RlCg6c4qgmbqpwcxf9ltgrSQhdf3E-dBU5YpVfoQM4ME_QFd5oELUChF0v8nNwI06JSHl6yOjaq-0rt0V-R6Ohvk9aETiWMksC4PG1FkL7HH_ZZlBeIWZzt6aE/s320/fat-76ers-fan.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i>, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="font-style: italic;">Arturo Galletti</a><i>. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the confusing Philadelphia 76ers. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<i></i><br />
<a name='more'></a><i><br /></i>
<u>Philadelphia 76ers 39-43 (4th Atlantic)</u><br />
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TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6656; mso-width-source: userset; width: 137pt;" width="182"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Jrue Holiday</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SG Jason Richardson</td>
<td align="right">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SF Evan Turner</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">PF Spencer Hawes</td>
<td align="right">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">C Andrew Bynum</td>
<td align="right">9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Thaddeus Young</td>
<td align="right">4.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">G/F Nick Young</td>
<td align="right">-2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Lavoy Allen</td>
<td align="right">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">F Dorell Wright</td>
<td align="right">5.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
This team vexes me. Trading Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bynum is seen by most as a huge upgrade, but I can't decide if I agree or not. On the one hand, both players are similarly productive, and the Sixers' roster is teeming with potential Iguodalas, while nearly no one in the league has an Andrew Bynum. Bynum fills a gaping hole in the middle of both sides of the floor for Philly, and moving Iguodala possibly frees up minutes for Evan Turner to finally start living up to his #2 draft pick status.<br />
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On the other hand, Iguodala was <i>really</i> good, and has been for his entire career. Turner, meanwhile, has gone from slightly below-average to slightly above-average, which is well-and-good, but which also comes nowhere near replacing Iggy. As for Bynum, he played the most minutes of his career last year, which is telling considering it was a lockout-shortened year and that he was suspended for the first four games of the season. To expect him to stay healthy through an entire season is wishful thinking, as the knee problems Bynum is already experiencing portend. <br />
<br />
So with a hobbled Bynum, or even without him at all for any significant amount of time, what exactly are the Sixers other than a (much) worse version of themselves from the past few seasons? In addition to the loss of Iguodala, Philly also (bizarrely) amnestied Elton Brand in the last year of his contract following two productive, relatively healthy seasons so that they could sign Nick Young, consistently one of the worst players in the league. Young was signed to replace Lou Williams and Jodie Meeks, who together only provided some of the most efficient bench scoring in the league. In Brand's absence, coach Doug Collins is going to employ a dreaded Twin Towers lineup with Spencer Hawes lined up next to Bynum, but it is highly likely the duo sees the floor together in more than 30 games. Thaddeus Young has reached the point where he is what he is, which is a tweener forward best served coming off the bench against the certain lineups he can wreak havoc against, while Lavoy Allen proved his defensive mettle in last year's playoffs. Rookie Arnett Moultrie and the unkillable Kwame Brown also will be in the mix up front.<br />
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The starting backcourt should be a unit of strength, with Jrue Holiday settling in as a 2nd tier point guard and trade acquisition Jason Richardson eager to prove he still can be a 2nd tier shooting guard after escaping the Hell that was Orlando last season. Holiday better be well-conditioned, since the only other point guards on the roster are Royal Ivey and undrafted free agent Maalik Wayns (which is to say there really aren't any other point guards on the roster).<br />
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With or without Bynum, this roster is a mess. Everyone except Bynum and Hawes is best-suited to run up and down the floor, while the lack of outside shooting (Richardson and Dorell Wright excepted) will leave the lane congested whenever Bynum tries to go to work down-low. If a Bynum deal was a possibility, why let Meeks and Williams--you're two best shooters--go? This is a team with no identity, and unless Turner can join Bynum as a likely All-Star selection, I see what looked like a promising few years of playoff success following last year's run ending before it even starts.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-76883128934038645352012-10-24T09:00:00.000-04:002012-10-24T09:00:04.455-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Toronto Raptors<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVA3vIucDF9oPJfKhDhUqfLcEMQ_FUYQ2byr-rFb_grZ8iLEWd5HD4y6SOssWl95vu46Zpj4xHagU4Av_tH_GejFulklHWxaYTGbp0EH8EFKyM2jIQbf5yy031SeJMXvwLo3C/s1600/bargnani-pigging-out.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVA3vIucDF9oPJfKhDhUqfLcEMQ_FUYQ2byr-rFb_grZ8iLEWd5HD4y6SOssWl95vu46Zpj4xHagU4Av_tH_GejFulklHWxaYTGbp0EH8EFKyM2jIQbf5yy031SeJMXvwLo3C/s320/bargnani-pigging-out.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<u><br /></u><i>With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/">incoming international players</a> perform</i><i>, I used the amazing projections of </i><a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" style="font-style: italic;">Arturo Galletti</a><i>. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the up-and-coming Toronto Raptors. Enjoy.</i><u><br /></u>
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<a name='more'></a><u><br /></u>
<u>Toronto Raptors 46-36 (3rd Atlantic)</u><br />
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TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are 2011-12 WP)<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 137pt;" width="182"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Kyle Lowry</td><td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">5.9</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">SG Terrence Ross*</td><td align="right">3.3</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">SF DeMar DeRozan</td><td align="right">-1.4</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">PF Andrea Bargnani</td><td align="right">-0.2</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">C Jonas Valanciunas*</td><td align="right">-0.2</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">G Jose Calderon</td><td align="right">4.2</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">G/F Landry Fields</td><td align="right">6.7</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">F Amir Johnson</td><td align="right">6.1</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">F Ed Davis</td><td align="right">6.4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">*Projected </span><br />
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The Raptors certainly appear to be Wins Produced darlings. I doubt any other prognostication has them winning 46 games, especially when that same prognostication has three of the four reasons people might actually think the Raptors could surprise performing at putrid levels.<br />
<br />
Andrea Bargnani, for all of his shortcomings on the glass and defensive end, is widely considered a pretty talented offensive player capable of being the centerpiece of a successful team's attack. Overlooked is the fact, that while it is true Bargnani is a laughably bad rebounder (Ben Uzoh rebounded at a better rate last season), and a passive defensive presence (it seems almost impossible for a 7-footer to block only 15 shots in 31 games), it is also true that the <a href="http://youtu.be/tNIqK9lHFCY">Primo Pasta spokesman</a> is a poor shooter who unfortunately shoots more than anyone else on his team and turns the ball over at an alarming rate for a center. The fact that he has twice been the worst player in the league per Wins Produced should not be surprising.<br />
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DeMar DeRozan continues to be billed as a future star based entirely on his athleticism and size, because his production has progressively gotten worse throughout his career. Last year, DeRozan was below average in every category except FT%, FTA, scoring, and FGA, joining Bargnani as another Raptor who can't shoot but does more than the average player at his position. That is the very definition of inefficiency.<br />
<br />
If DeRozan continues his downward trajectory, it could be exponentially damaging, since his oozing (unrealized) potential garnishes him big-time minutes that come at the expense of widely-and-wrongly-mocked free agent signing Landry Fields and rookie Terrence Ross. Fields has been dismissed as merely the cog in an ill-fated, convoluted attempt by Toronto to lure Steve Nash away from New York (who also didn't get Nash, but whatever), but--while that may indeed have been GM Bryan Colangelo's motivation for signing the former Knick--Toronto has in its possession a player who has been a top 5 shooting guard in terms of Wins Produced both seasons of his career. While he'll never wow you the way DeRozan occasionally may, Fields will make positive contributions across the board while taking nearly nothing away. Ross, meanwhile, projects as a slightly below-average player as a rookie, but slightly below-average is better than downright awful any day.<br />
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The third "key" to the Raptors' season who will fall on his face is hyped Euro big man Jonas Valanciunas. Based largely on the strength of a dominant three week stretch against under-19 players two summers ago, Valanciunas is being hailed as Toronto's savior. Bill Simmons swears the Cavs will rue the day they took Tristan Thompson over Valanciunas, and while Thompson hasn't exactly wowed yet, I highly doubt Valanciunas will outperform the former Longhorn. For one thing, I don't see Valanciunas being able to stay on the floor. Foul trouble and match-up problems will force him to the bench more often than not, and while I think the young Lithuanian does have the skill to be an effective low-block scorer, the necessity for such a player has been greatly diminished. Dominant big men are still a necessity in today's NBA, but dominance on the defensive end rules this day, and Valanciunas has a long way to go before he will even be passable on that end of the floor.<br />
<br />
The fourth "key" to the Raptors' season, by the way, will actually be a difference-maker. I'm talking about Kyle Lowry, of course, who should team with incumbent Jose Calderon to form one of the more productive point guard rotations in the league. Lowry will also bring toughness that should fit right in with what head coach Dwane Casey is trying to establish in Toronto. Combined with Ross, Fields, and the big man bench duo of Amir Johnson and Ed Davis, Lowry and the Raptors should be able to overcome the ineffectiveness of their other three "cornerstones" and find their way back in the postseason for the first time since 2008.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13000425810218943446noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34643462.post-17774736861968011552012-10-23T12:00:00.000-04:002012-10-23T12:00:00.721-04:002012-13 NBA Preview: Boston Celtics<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_lxLIT4awJ1MyzC74AhpE7N01Tec8HjfVHnUgaLYpzlGihrWGQ8ZNdJibbLGHH-uiDiGnFqVAQV2sXbasH86Nx7hKSVnhww5dGdSBsskTta2cx3rXum_vNtINkUcn9FV80Jou/s1600/Rajon-Rondo-Jacket-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_lxLIT4awJ1MyzC74AhpE7N01Tec8HjfVHnUgaLYpzlGihrWGQ8ZNdJibbLGHH-uiDiGnFqVAQV2sXbasH86Nx7hKSVnhww5dGdSBsskTta2cx3rXum_vNtINkUcn9FV80Jou/s320/Rajon-Rondo-Jacket-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<i><br /></i>
<i><br /></i>
<i>With the NBA season a little over a week away, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out. These projections were created using <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced/">Wins Produced</a> (WP) from the <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/">Wages of Wins Journal</a> and <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/">The NBA Geek</a>. To gauge how <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/06/29/2012-wrap-draft-fanservice/">rookies</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/08/03/the-euro-rankings/">incoming international players</a>, I used the amazing projections of <a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti">Arturo Galletti</a>. If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should. I march on with the steady Boston Celtics. Enjoy.</i><br />
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<a name='more'></a><u><br /></u>
<u><br /></u>
<u>Boston Celtics 46-36 (2nd Atlantic)</u> </div>
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TOP NINE PRODUCTION (numbers listed are WP)<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 246px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 137pt;" width="182"></col><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt; width: 137pt;" width="182">PG Rajon Rondo</td><td align="right" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">8.6</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">SG Courtney Lee</td><td align="right">3.7</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">SF Paul Pierce</td><td align="right">6.5</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">PF Brandon Bass</td><td align="right">2.9</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">C Kevin Garnett</td><td align="right">6.5</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">G Jason Terry</td><td align="right">4.1</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">G Avery Bradley</td><td align="right">2</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">F Jeff Green^</td><td align="right">1.6</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15pt;">F/C Jared Sullinger*</td><td align="right">2.6</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">^2010-11 WP</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*Projected</span><br />
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Pushing Miami to seven games convinced Danny Ainge to bring the band back together again for one more run, minus Ray Allen, of course. One has to wonder if subtracting Ray-Ray will ignite the C's to play like a team on fire after hearing how much they all evidently hate him. Courtney Lee will take Allen's spot alongside freak talent Rajon Rondo in the starting backcourt, while Jason Terry will look to replace Allen's late-game shooting off the bench.<br />
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Terry and Lee are part of a comprehensive influx of support both young and old talent. Recent signing Leandro Barbosa falls more on the old side of that ledger, and should provide a different dynamic off the bench than the Celtics have had in the KG era. Jeff Green, while technically not new, will make his full-season debut, and Doc Rivers is hoping he can provide a counter to LeBron in the postseason (spoiler: Green cannot).<br />
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Fab Melo and Kris Joseph were brought in from Syracuse to likely bust hard in Beantown, while fellow rookie Jared Sullinger could be the steal of the draft. If Sullinger's bulky back holds up, he could provide the low-post scoring presence the other Boston bigs cannot. Paul Pierce will be his reliable, sometimes dominant self for at least one more year, while KG will get to see if playing center truly is the fountain of youth it appeared to be late last season. The Celtics may find themselves looking up at New York in the standings, but come playoff time, I'll take them against any team that doesn't start Shane Battier at power forward.</div>
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