Here it is, the final countdown. This is going to be a sidebar heavy post, so forgive me, but there's a lot of info I need to cram in. It's been a nightmare writing these, so I hope at least one person is reading them. If you're out there, enjoy, you magnificent bastard, you! (Also, a lot of you that get this in your e-mail have said you can't see the pictures. Here's a solution: go to the website. http://www.diminishingskills.blogspot.com Bookmark it.)
120-101
100-76
75-51
50-26
25. NC State (9-3)
Yes, Russell Wilson transferred to Wisconsin, but that just opens the door for Mike Glennon, who was a highly-touted recruit and is built like former Wolfpack great Philip Rivers. Eight starters return on defense that allowed 21.3 points per game last season, and head coach Tom O'Brien always seems to find a way to scrape out successful seasons. Despite the loss of Wilson, this is O'Brien's most talented team since he came to Raleigh.
Key Game: at Florida State, October 29
The Wolfpack should be 7-0 coming into this game, so it could be a matchup of highly ranked opponents. Obviously, a lot will be on the line in terms of the ACC Atlantic division race.
24. Pittsburgh (9-3)
Dave Wannstedt probably didn't deserve to get fired last season, but his loss is new coach Todd Graham's game, as Wannstedt left the cupboard pretty well-stocked before his dismissal. Graham will bring his high-powered attack from Tulsa to hopefully inject life into a lifeless offense that often failed to support a stellar defense (19.0 points per game allowed last year). That defense has 8 starters returning, which should mean the Panthers are neck-and-neck for the Big East crown all season.
Key Game: at West Virginia, November 25
This game will likely decide the Big East championship.
23. Penn State (9-3)
Last year's 7-6 mark was Joe Paterno's worst showing since going 4-7 in 2004, and I like the Nittany Lions to bounce back this year. Last season was marred by inconsistency and uncertainty at the quarterback position, but I think the much more talented Rob Bolden will eventually emerge over Matt McGloin and stabilize the situation. All-time PSU rushing leader Evan Royster is also gone, but he says his replacement, Silas Redd, will break his record. Penn State seems to always produce excellent (college) backs, so I don't doubt Royster's prediction.
Key Game: at Ohio State, November 19
Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has only won once in Columbus (2008). If the Lions can buck that trend this year, they could set up a showdown for the division crown in the season finale at Wisconsin.
22. West Virginia (10-2)
Here's a shocking development: when I Google Image searched "West Virginia Mountaineers," not a single image of a hot girl wearing Mountaineers gear came up. I do believe that was the first time that happened after image searching for 98 schools. Impressive, WVU. Like the rest of the Big East last season, West Virginia had surprising trouble scoring, which continued a trend that has persisted for all three of ex-coach Bill Stewart's seasons at the helm. Enter new coach Dana Holgorsen, who in his previous stops as offensive coordinator in Texas Tech, Houston, and Oklahoma State engineered three of the most potent attacks in the nation. Quarterback Geno Smith should emerge as a sleeper Heisman candidate in Hogorsen's offensive scheme.
Key Game: at USF, December 1
West Virginia has only won once in Tampa, but a win may be necessary this year to seal a Big East champion (assuming they escape Pittsburgh's visit to Morgantown the previous week unscathed).
*SIDEBAR #8: Heisman Preview*
SLEEPERS
- Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan: People seem to forget that Robinson was a one man top 20 offense last season before his diminutive size got the best of him and he was slowed down in the latter part of the year. If new coach Brady Hoke can do a better job of protecting his QB, Robinson could run away with the award (as he seemed like he would for the first month of the season last year).
- Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina: Lattimore was a beast last year as a true freshman, and the Gamecocks may need to rely on him even more this year with Stephen Garcia being his most Stephen Garcia-like coming into the season. If Lattimore can withstand an even heavier workload, he could put up eye-popping numbers in the SEC that would be hard for Heisman voters to ignore.
- Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia: Murray was pretty good last year, and should be even better with one full year of starting experience under his belt. If Georgia is in the BCS championship conversation at the end of the year, Murray will be a huge reason why and will surely be deserving of Heisman love.
- E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State and Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech: Each of these guys could be at the helm of undefeated teams coming out of the ACC, and by all accounts, Thomas is Cam Newton v. 2.0, which is a pretty daunting package.
- Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska: Martinez was moving himself into the conversation last year before an ankle injury derailed his campaign. If he can pick where he left off and lead the Cornhuskers to a Big Ten title in their first season of membership, he could be getting that invite to New York.
- Case Keenum, QB, Houston: I mention him only because he will put up eye-popping numbers, will likely be college football's all-time leading passer, and will be at the helm of a legitimate BCS Buster possibility. Unfortunately, the "stigma" associated with being a Houston quarterback (i.e., the system puts up the numbers, not the player) will keep Keenum from getting any serious consideration.
- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia: If the Mountaineers can somehow run the table and Smith is putting up the numbers QBs did at Holgorsen's previous stops, Smith could become a very tempting choice for Heisman glory.
FINALISTS
5. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: Moore will break Colt McCoy's record for most wins by a quarterback, and will put up the same excellent numbers he has his entire career. Unfortunately, I think voter fatigue will set in and he will be passed over simply because he has been so good for too long.
4. La Michael James, RB, Oregon: James will come up short in his second invite to New York, but he will still put together another stellar season for a very good Oregon team.
3. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: Luck will get an invite simply because he will the number one pick in the draft, but his game is more efficiency than eye-popping stats. Unless he leads the Cardinal to a PAC-12 championship, I don't see Luck winning the trophy in his likely final college season.
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: Richardson is an absurd runner, with 5 times the talent of the man he replaces, Mark Ingram (who was no slouch himself). With uncertainty at quarterback and wide receiver, Richardson is going to be counted on to carry a large load for the Crimson Tide, and he should be more than up to the challenge.
1. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: An undefeated Oklahoma team led by a QB putting up video game numbers? Hmmmm, where have I seen that before? Oh yeah, Sam Bradford and Jason White. Jones isn't the best player in college football, but the Sooners' success and the stats their system allows their quarterbacks to produce should again combine to give Oklahoma their third Heisman-winning quarterback in the past 9 years.
*END SIDEBAR #8*
21. Florida (8-4)
Pictured above, a young Tim Tebow during the 10 minutes a day he wasn't praying. It's kind of creepy that he's staring at a picture of Steve Spurrier. This could be another uneven year for the Gators as Will Mushchamp takes over for Urban Meyer and new offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss tries to straighten out quarterback John Brantley. If Brantley cannot be salvaged (which I think he will be; Weiss made Matt Cassel look pretty good last year in Kansas City, and Brantley is more talented than Cassel), superfrosh Jeff Driskel awaits in the wings. Despite the transitional state of the program, there is still enough talent on hand that the Gators should be playing in a New Year's Day Bowl (although there are no bowls on New Year's Day this year, since it's the last day of the NFL regular season).
Key Game: at Auburn, October 15
Florida hasn't won in Auburn since 1999, but they will have to win this year to avoid a likely three-game losing streak (previous two games vs. Alabama and at LSU).
20. Wisconsin (9-3)
This will border on blasphemy, but I almost like Bucky Badger more than Brutus Buckeye. Bucky is such a cocky little street tough. I think Brutus could use some of that attitude. The Badgers return two of the three heads of their three-headed running back monster from last season (James White and Monte Ball; John Clay is gone), and add in Russell Wilson at quarterback to give them one of the best backfields in the country. The line does lose two All-Americans, but Wisconsin seems to grow stud linemen on trees so they should be fine. The smart money says Wisconsin should at least be in the Big Ten Championship game, and could be in the national title picture depending on how they fare in East Lansing and Columbus.
Key Game: Nebraska, October 1
This will be the Cornhuskers first Big Ten game, so they will probably be looking to make a statement. Madison is an extremely difficult place to win, but it's not impossible (Iowa won there 20-10 in 2009).
19. Arkansas (9-3)
Yes, RB Kniles Davis is out for the year after putting up an impressive 1322 yards and 13 TDs last year, but Davis didn't have his first 100 yard game until game 6, so Arkansas can succeed without a stellar ground attack. Bobby Petrino also has experience losing stellar running backs early in the year, as he lost Michael Bush in the first game of the 2006 season at Louisville, and all that team did was go 12-1 and win the Orange Bowl. Of course, coping with the loss of Davis would be easier with Ryan Mallet at quarterback, but Tyler Wilson should be an adequate replacement as he was pretty good against Auburn last year before throwing two interceptions in the 4th quarter.
Key Game: South Carolina, November 5
A BCS at-large berth could be on the line in this game. Arkansas killed the Gamecocks 41-20 last year in a game that wasn't even that close, so South Carolina should come into Little Rock angry.
*SIDEBAR#9: Mountain West Preview*
STANDINGS
1. Boise State 12-0 (7-0)
2. TCU 11-1 (6-1)
3. Air Force 9-3 (5-2)
4. San Diego State 7-5 (4-3)
5. Colorado State 7-5 (3-4)
6. Wyoming 6-6 (2-5)
7. New Mexico 3-9 (1-6)
8. UNLV 1-11 (0-7)
BOWLS
If you're wondering where Boise State is, I'm saving my BCS bowl preview for another sidebar. Will the Broncos finally get their shot at the national title? Read on, friend! The answer is only a few thousand words and ridiculous pictures away!
New Mexico Bowl, December 17, Albuquerque, NM: Louisiana Tech (8-5) over Colorado State (7-6)
A loss here would make the Rams 0-5 against teams with winning records.
Poinsettia Bowl, December 21, San Diego, CA: Air Force (10-3) over Nevada (8-5)
Nevada isn't nearly as good as they were last season, while Air Force is primed to have one of their best seasons in recent memory.
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, December 22, Las Vegas, NV: TCU (12-1) over California (7-6)
California has an inflated record due to an easy schedule, so the Horned Frogs should dominate.
Independence Bowl, December 26, Shreveport, LA: North Carolina (7-6) over San Diego State (7-6)
This is assuming, of course, that North Carolina is allowed to appear in a bowl this season.
*END SIDEBAR#9*
18. Notre Dame (10-2)
At 10-2, the Irish will have a strong case for a BCS bowl bid, and would have back-to-back seasons for the first time since Brady Quinn's last two seasons in South Bend. While Brian Kelly is rightfully known for his offensive acumen, what is really impressive is the improvement he made on the defensive side of the ball. The 20.2 points per game the Irish allowed last year were the fewest since they gave up a paltry 16.7 in 2002. Eight starters return on defense, with nine back on offense, so Notre Dame should be in prime position to jump back up into the national conversation after four seasons of existing at the fringes.
Key Game: USC, October 22
The last time Notre Dame beat the Trojans in consecutive seasons was a three-year stretch from 1999-2001. Last year ended an 8-game USC winning streak, and with the Trojans again ineligible for post-season play, this game becomes their bowl game.
17. USC (10-2)
Reason #800,000,000,000,000 the Song Girls are awesome: the picture above. While the talent isn't where it was during the Trojans (illegal) heyday of the mid-aughts, quarterback Matt Barkley is still under center and there is still enough talent elsewhere that USC should dominate their weaker division-mates. I have them sitting at 10-0 when they travel to Oregon November 19.
Key Game: Stanford, October 29
Stanford has beaten the Trojans two years in a row (and 3 or the last 4), including a last second win in Palo Alto last year.
*SIDEBAR #10: Big East Preview*
STANDINGS
1. West Virginia 10-2 (6-1)
2. Pittsburgh 9-3 (6-1)
3. Cincinnati 8-4 (5-2)
4. South Florida 7-5 (4-3)
5. Connecticut 7-5 (2-5)
6. Rutgers 6-6 (2-5)
7. Syracuse 6-6 (2-5)
8. Louisville 4-8 (1-6)
BOWLS
Beef O' Brady Bowl, December 20, St. Petersburg, FL: Boston College (7-6) over Connecticut (7-6)
UConn and BC were only in the Big East together for one season, with Boston College winning 27-7 in their matchup that year. I see a lower score and a closer game here, but the end result will be the same.
Belk Bowl, December 27, Charlotte, NC: Miami, FL (10-3) over Cincinnati (8-5)
Similar to North Carolina in the Independence Bowl, this is assuming that Miami is able to play in a bowl, as well as their entire team not getting suspended for the season.
Champs Sports Bowl, December 29, Orlando, FL: Pittsburgh (10-3) over Clemson (8-5)
This would mark the Panthers third straight bowl win.
Pinstripe Bowl, December 30, New York, NY: Kansas State (7-6) over Syracuse (6-7)
This game is played in Yankee Stadium, which should give the Orange a homefield advantage, but I can't imagine that many people will want to sit outside in Yankee Stadium to watch two mediocre schools try to out-bore each other.
BBVA Compass Bowl, January 7, Birmingham, AL: Mississippi State (7-6) over South Florida (7-6)
South Florida has won a bowl game each of the last three years, while the Bulldogs have won 4 straight bowl appearances (in non-consecutive years). Something has to give, and I believe it will be the team with Big East talent instead of the team with SEC talent.
*END SIDEBAR #10*
16. South Carolina (10-2)
Steve Spurrier has amassed an impressive collection of talent in Columbia, including last year's freshman stud RB Marcus Lattimore and this year's freshman stud DE Jadeveon Clowney. Too bad he couldn't find anybody better to play quarterback than Stephen Garcia. Garcia's inconsistent play, and Spurrier's poor reactions to it (Spurrier pulled his QB in the 4th quarter of the Auburn game following Garcia's 2 fumbles, only to watch backup Connor Shaw throw two picks in the 27-35 loss), will ultimately prevent the Gamecocks from appearing in their first BCS bowl game.
Key Game: at Georgia, September 10
The SEC East could be decided early, as these are the two clear front-runners in the division. South Carolina won last year 17-6 in Columbia, but lost 37-41 the last time they went to Athens.
15. Oklahoma State (9-3)
OK State's offense was awesome last year, averaging 44.2 points per game, scoring 65 in a game twice, and failing to eclipse 30 points only once (a 24-14 win over Kansas State). Nine starters return to that side of the ball, including quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who may be the best wide out in the nation. The defense was good enough, but returns only 5 starters, so the offense may need to score even more points. In a conference where Oklahoma and Texas A&M have nearly as good offenses with much better defenses, and Texas simply has more talent, Oklahoma State will be a long shot to emerge with their first conference title since 1976.
Key Game: at Texas A&M, September 24
Oklahoma State has beaten the Aggies three straight, and a fourth would put them in the driver's seat for a BCS at-large bid (assuming Oklahoma gets the Big 12's automatic bid).
*SIDEBAR #11: PAC-12 Preview*
STANDINGS
North
1. Oregon 11-1 (8-1)
2. Stanford 10-2 (7-2)
3. Oregon State 8-4 (6-3)
4. Washington 6-6 (4-5)
5. California 7-5 (3-6)
6. Washington State 4-8 (1-8)
South
1. USC 10-2 (7-2)*
2. Arizona State 8-4 (6-3)
3. Utah 7-5 (5-4)
4. Arizona 5-7 (3-6)
5. UCLA 5-7 (3-6)
6. Colorado 1-12 (0-8)
*USC, of course, is ineligible for post-season play, so while they can claim the division title, they cannot appear in the PAC-12 Championship game.
Championship Game: Oregon (12-1) over Arizona State (8-5)
BOWLS
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, December 22, Las Vegas, NV: TCU (12-1) over California (7-6)
California has an inflated record due to an easy schedule, so the Horned Frogs should dominate.
Holiday Bowl, December 28, San Diego, CA: Utah (8-5) over Missouri (6-7)
Last year's Las Vegas Bowl loss to Boise State was Utah's first bowl loss since 1996 (snapping a 9-game winning streak). The Utes get back on their grind against Missouri.
Alamo Bowl, December 29, San Antonio, TX: Texas A&M (11-2) over Oregon State (8-5)
The only chance the Beavers have is if the Aggies are too distraught over being passed over for not only a BCS bowl, but also the Cotton Bowl. I think they'll get over it and handle Oregon State.
Sun Bowl, December 31, El Paso, TX: North Carolina State (10-4) over Arizona State (8-6)
Arizona State is probably the fifth or sixth best team in the PAC-12, while North Carolina State could make a case for being the third best ACC school following all of the turmoil in Miami and Chapel Hill.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Dec. 31, San Francisco, CA: Notre Dame (11-2) over Washington (6-7)
This game is played in PacBell (AT&T, technically, but PacBell sounds cooler) Park. There will be controversy if things play out this way, as Notre Dame should be in line for a BCS bid all season heading into their season finale against Stanford. Whoever wins that game will probably snag the bid, and obviously, I have the Cardinal prevailing.
*END SIDEBAR #11*
14. TCU (11-1)
The last time Texas played TCU was 1995, and it will probably stay that unless they meet in a bowl or Texas (unlikely) or TCU (more likely) fall off drastically in quality. I'm sure TCU would love to play the Longhorns, but for UT, a game against TCU is a lose-lose. If Texas wins, they were supposed to, but if Texas loses, they lose face in their home state. It's similar to how Ohio State paid Cincinnati to drop them from their schedule when Cincinnati started getting good (I couldn't find a link to corroborate that story, but I know I heard it from a credible source). Also, do you think the Horned Frogs are kicking themselves for agreeing to go to the Big East prior to the Big 12 falling apart and scrambling for members? Of course, because of pressure from Texas, many insiders believe that an invite to the Big 12 would have never come TCU's way. As for this year's squad, they lose a lot of talent, especially on offense (only 3 returning starters). The defense should be as it usually is (TCU hasn't allowed more than 18.7 points per game since 2004), which should carry the Horned Frogs through their early schedule until the offense can get their legs under them. Travelling to Colorado Springs to play Air Force in only the second week of the season will be a scary proposition, but if they can survive that, TCU should head into Boise on November 12 undefeated.
Key Game: at Boise State, November 12
Another drawback about going to the Big East is that the Mountain West decided to screw the Horned Frogs, moving this game from Forth Worth to Boise. The winner should be in line for a BCS at-large bid, which would be TCU's 3rd straight BCS appearance.
13. Georgia (10-2)
The Bulldogs return the SEC's best quarterback in Aaron Murray and seven starters on a fairly stout defense (22.1 points per game allowed last year). A.J. Green won't be catching Murray's passes anymore, but Tavarres King is ready to step up as the #1 receiver. Georgia hasn't been in the SEC title game since they won it in 2005, but that changes this year as they squeak past South Carolina for a trip to Atlanta.
Key Game: at Tennessee, October 8
The Bulldogs have lost their last two trips to Knoxville 45-19 in 2009 and 35-14 in 2007. A similar result this season would be a disaster, and may have Mark Richt sitting on the hot seat.
*SIDEBAR #12: ACC Preview*
STANDINGS
Atlantic
1. Florida State 11-1 (8-0)
2. Clemson 8-4 (6-2)
3. North Carolina State 9-3 (5-3)
4. Maryland 5-7 (3-5)
5. Boston College 6-6 (3-5)
6. Wake Forest 2-10 (1-7)
Coastal
1. Virginia Tech 12-0 (8-0)
2. Miami 9-3 (6-2)
3. Georgia Tech 6-6 (3-5)
4. North Carolina 6-6 (2-6)
5. Virginia 6-6 (2-6)
6. Duke 4-8 (1-7)
Championship Game: Florida State (12-1) over Virginia Tech (12-1)
BOWLS
Beef O' Brady Bowl, December 20, St. Petersburg, FL: Boston College (7-6) over Connecticut (7-6)
UConn and BC were only in the Big East together for one season, with Boston College winning 27-7 in their matchup that year. I see a lower score and a closer game here, but the end result will be the same.
Independence Bowl, December 26, Shreveport, LA: North Carolina (7-6) over San Diego State (7-6)
This is assuming, of course, that North Carolina is allowed to appear in a bowl this season.
Belk Bowl, December 27, Charlotte, NC: Miami, FL (10-3) over Cincinnati (8-5)
Similar to North Carolina in the Independence Bowl, this is assuming that Miami is able to play in a bowl, as well as their entire team not getting suspended for the season.
Military Bowl, December 28, Washington, DC: Navy (9-4) over Virginia (6-7)
Despite their streak of nine straight bowl appearances (including this one), this would only be Navy's fourth bowl win since 2003.
Champs Sports Bowl, December 29, Orlando, FL: Pittsburgh (10-3) over Clemson (8-5)
This would mark the Panthers third straight bowl win.
Music City Bowl, December 30, Nashville, TN: Tennessee (8-5) over Georgia Tech (6-7)
In their second straight Music City Bowl appearance, the Vols will get the win the they thought they had last year over North Carolina.
Sun Bowl, December 31, El Paso, TX: North Carolina State (10-4) over Arizona State (8-6)
Arizona State is probably the fifth or sixth best team in the PAC-12, while North Carolina State could make a case for being the third best ACC school following all of the turmoil in Miami and Chapel Hill.
Chick-fil-A Bowl, December 31, Atlanta, GA: Virginia Tech (13-1) over Auburn (6-7)
The Hokies are doomed by their ACC Championship game loss to Florida State, as despite their lone loss, their weak schedule and bad timing cost them a BCS bid. The ACC has never received an at-large BCS berth.
*END SIDEBAR #12*
12. Texas A&M (10-2)
Remember when A&M used to set this big bonfire, but then everyone on their campus caught on fire (or something similarly horrific)? That sucked. The Aggies are a chic sleeper pick (thus, rendering them not a sleeper at all), and with good reason. They bring back 18 starters, 10 on an offense that really took off after Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB. Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael (that sounds very much like a super model's name) form a tremendous running back duo, and they are backed up by a guy named Mister Jones (I'm guessing his parents were big Counting Crows fans). With 8 starters back on a defense that allowed only 21.9 points per game (3rd in the Big 12), A&M is very much a threat to Oklahoma.
Key Game: Missouri, October 29
The Tigers dominated Texas A&M in College Station last year 30-9. Another loss to the Tigers would sink any of A&M's BCS hopes.
11. Texas (10-2)
This picture is definitely on the wall in the Austin Applebee's. It seems everybody expects Texas to continue to scuffle as bad as they did last year (5-7), but the Longhorns were adjusting not only to the loss of Colt McCoy, but also to a switch from a spread offense to a more traditional ground-based attack. If Garrett Gilbert can quit throwing picks (17 last year) and just get out of the way of the rest of the talent on this team, the Longhorns should be back where they've been for the past decade, winning double-digit games and competing for the Big 12 title.
Key Game: BYU, September 10
How the Longhorns fare against another traditional power hoping to bounce back from a down year will give a good indication on how the much Mack Brown has brought his team back or how much further they still need to go. The Longhorns of even two seasons ago would never lose this game in Austin.
*SIDEBAR #13: Big 12 Preview*
1. Oklahoma 12-0 (9-0)
2. Texas 10-2 (7-2)
3. Texas A&M 10-2 (7-2)
4. Oklahoma State 9-3 (6-3)
5. Missouri 6-6 (4-5)
6. Texas Tech 7-5 (4-5)
7. Kansas State 6-6 (4-5)
8. Baylor 5-7 (3-6)
9. Iowa State 2-10 (1-8)
10. Kansas 2-10 (0-9)
BOWLS
Holiday Bowl, December 28, San Diego, CA: Utah (8-5) over Missouri (6-7)
Last year's Las Vegas Bowl loss to Boise State was Utah's first bowl loss since 1996 (snapping a 9-game winning streak). The Utes get back on their grind against Missouri.
Alamo Bowl, December 29, San Antonio, TX: Texas A&M (11-2) over Oregon State (8-5)
The only chance the Beavers have is if the Aggies are too distraught over being passed over for not only a BCS bowl, but also the Cotton Bowl. I think they'll get over it and handle Oregon State.
Pinstripe Bowl, December 30, New York, NY: Kansas State (7-6) over Syracuse (6-7)
This game is played in Yankee Stadium, which should give the Orange a homefield advantage, but I can't imagine that many people will want to sit outside in Yankee Stadium to watch two mediocre schools try to out-bore each other.
Insight Bowl, December 30, Tempe, AZ: Oklahoma State (10-3) over Northwestern (8-5)
Assuming Northwestern QB Dan Persa is healthy (which is assuming a lot), this should be one of the more entertaining bowls of the year, since OK State is perhaps the most explosive offense in the nation and Northwestern always seems to bring it in bowl games (over the last 3 seasons, the Wildcats have lost three bowls by a touchdown or less, with two of the three going into overtime).
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, December 31, Houston, TX: Illinois (9-4) over Texas Tech (7-6)
Bowl of Texas? What the hell does that even mean? This should be a good matchup, but I'm going to boycott watching if only to get the name changed back to Texas Bowl.
Cotton Bowl, January 6, Dallas, TX: LSU (10-3) over Texas (10-3)
There hasn't been a good Cotton Bowl game since Auburn over Nebraska in 2006. I am confident Les Miles will find a way to make this one entertaining.
*END SIDEBAR #13*
You can get this shirt here. I would, but it's 27 bucks. I could own 10 copies of Tecmo Bowl for that much. Despite all of the turmoil surrounding the Buckeyes, they're still the most talented team in the Big Ten. They may struggle a little early in the conference schedule (they open in Columbus against Michigan State and then travel to Lincoln for the first time ever), but by the end of the year superfrosh Braxton Miller should be at quarterback and the suspended players should be back in the groove they were in their non-existent Sugar Bowl win last year. Or, Luke Fickell will be a disaster as a coach, lose the team and limp to a 4-8 finish. Really, it could go either way.
Key Game: Wisconsin, October 29, at night
If there were two things Jim Tressel teams struggled with (besides beating SEC teams actually in the Southeast [so not Arkansas]), it was beating Wisconsin and winning night games. Considering the Bucks will probably lose in Lincoln, this game becomes a must-win. I will be attending, so I expect a heartbreaking loss that will lead to me getting a DUI on my way home.
9. Virginia Tech (12-0)
I know those are baseball players, but holy shit. Those are some hideous uniforms. The Hokies have a ridiculously easy schedule that avoids Florida State and NC State from the Atlantic and has been made all the easier by the trouble at Miami and North Carolina. If Va Tech isn't undefeated going into the ACC Championship game, something has gone horribly wrong.
Key Game: Clemson, October 1
Virginia Tech has beaten the Tigers 5 straight times by 23 points per game, and I don't expect that streak ending this year. Seriously, though, that is the Hokies' toughest game. Unless Appalachian State has another shocker in the on September 3.
8. Florida State (11-1)
For the record, this girl is way hotter than Jenn Sterger. Get Brett Favre her cell phone number, stat! Also, does the university make shirts like that? And whatever company makes them, I'd like to know if they've even bother making them for schools north of Kentucky. I seriously doubt there is a single shirt cut like that that says Minnesota on it. Florida State should make their long-awaited return to the country's elite after a six-year absence from the BCS (and really, they weren't that good in 2005, either; for their last "elite" season, you'd probably have to go back to 2000). Quarterback EJ Manuel is a Heisman sleeper, and the defense should be just as good as last year (19.6 points per game allowed) with 8 starters returning.
Key Game: Oklahoma, September 17
The Sooners blitzed FSU last year in Norman 47-17. If the Seminoles really want to make their return to the upper crust of college football official, they need to at least be competitive. A win would put them in the driver's seat for a spot in the national title game.
*SIDEBAR #14: Big Ten Preview*
Leaders
1. Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)
2. Penn State 9-3 (5-3)
3. Wisconsin 9-3 (5-3)
4. Illinois 8-4 (4-4)
5. Purdue 6-6 (3-5)
6. Indiana 3-9 (0-8)
Legends
1. Nebraska 11-1 (7-1)
2. Michigan State 8-4 (5-3)
3. Northwestern 8-4 (4-4)
4. Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
5. Michigan 6-6 (3-5)
6. Minnesota 3-9 (0-8)
BOWLS
Little Caesar's Bowl, December 27, Detroit, MI: Iowa (8-5) over Toledo (7-6)
Toledo may be able to pull an upset playing so close to home against a disappointed Hawkeyes team, but the talent and size difference will most likely prove too large to overcome.
Insight Bowl, December 30, Tempe, AZ: Oklahoma State (10-3) over Northwestern (8-5)
Assuming Northwestern QB Dan Persa is healthy (which is assuming a lot), this should be one of the more entertaining bowls of the year, since OK State is perhaps the most explosive offense in the nation and Northwestern always seems to bring it in bowl games (over the last 3 seasons, the Wildcats have lost three bowls by a touchdown or less, with two of the three going into overtime).
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, December 31, Houston, TX: Illinois (9-4) over Texas Tech (7-6)
Bowl of Texas? What the hell does that even mean? This should be a good matchup, but I'm going to boycott watching if only to get the name changed back to Texas Bowl.
Ticket City Bowl, January 2, Dallas, TX: Michigan (7-6) over Tulsa (7-6)
I hope Brady Hoke doesn't rain Denard Robinson in too much, because Robinson versus the wide-open Tulsa attack may produce a 65-62 final score.
Capital One Bowl, January 2, Orlando, FL: Arkansas (10-3) over Penn State (9-4)
Penn State played Florida close last year before a late pick 6 made the score look worse than it was, but Arkansas this year is better than Florida was last year. Still, it's always a dicey proposition to go against Joe Pa in a bowl game.
Gator Bowl, January 2, Jacksonville, FL: Florida (9-4) over Michigan State (8-5)
Last year, Alabama completely undressed Michigan State 49-7 in the Capital One Bowl, and the same might happen here as Florida will essentially be playing a home game.
Outback Bowl, January 2, Tampa, FL: Wisconsin (10-3) over South Carolina (10-3)
The Badgers come to the rescue and salvage what could have been a disastrous day in Florida for the Big Ten. Wisconsin's defense should be able to contain Marcus Lattimore, while their running game vs. South Carolina's loaded defensive line will be one of the better unit-on-unit battles of the bowl season.
*END SIDEBAR #14*
7. LSU (9-3)
LSU was set to be a nice sleeper pick for the national title, and then their starting QB decided to stomp on the head of a Marine in a bar fight. Whoops. Jordan Jefferson has always been a disappointment to Tigers fans anyway, but Jarrett Lee may make them cringe even more. There is still an embarrassment of talent on defense and at the other skill positions, but I'm not so sure Les Miles is the best guy to ask to lead a team through off-field diversity. The Tigers will be awesome despite themselves yet again.
Key Game: Arkansas, November 25
Arkansas always seems to throw a monkey wrench into LSU's season, but this year the Razorbacks may actually have the better record coming into the game. The winner may be in line for a BCS at-large bid, or at the very least an invite to the Cotton Bowl, which is inching closer and closer every year to becoming part of the BCS.
6. Nebraska (11-1)
Nebraska hasn't won a conference championship since they won the Big 12 in 1999, but things are shaping up in their favor for their first Big Ten season. They were put in the weaker Legends division, and they play Ohio State at home in the Buckeyes' first game with their returning suspended players. Their defense should still be awesome with Jared Crick anchoring things up front, and a healthy Taylor Martinez makes the offense explosive.
Key Game: Ohio State, October 8
You know how they always say if you're sent to prison, you should pick a fight with the top dog on your first day to establish yourself? This is that fight. Nebraska can take over as the Big Ten's marquee team with a win over the scandal-rocked Buckeyes.
5. Stanford (10-2)
This could probably be its own sidebar, but I felt it was appropriate for the Stanford entry. Here's the performance of the teams of number one overall pick quarterbacks in their final collegiate season (dating back to 1980):
2009 Oklahoma (Sam Bradford): 8-5, Sun Bowl win (Bradford of course was out most of this season with injury.)
2008 Georgia (Matthew Stafford): 10-3, Capital One Bowl win
2006 LSU (JaMarcus Russell): 11-2, Sugar Bowl win
2004 Utah (Alex Smith): 12-0, Fiesta Bowl win
2003 Ole Miss (Eli Manning): 10-3, Cotton Bowl win
2002 USC (Carson Palmer): 11-2, Orange Bowl win
2001 Fresno State (David Carr): 11-3, Silicon Valley Bowl loss
2000 Virginia Tech (Michael Vick): 11-1, Gator Bowl win
1998 Kentucky (Tim Couch): 7-5, Outback Bowl loss
1997 Tennessee (Peyton Manning): 11-2, Orange Bowl loss
1992 Washington State (Drew Bledsoe): 9-3, Copper Bowl win
1989 Illinois (Jeff George): 10-2, Citrus Bowl win
1988 UCLA (Troy Aikman): 10-2, Cotton Bowl win
1986 Miami, FL (Vinny Testaverde): 11-1, Fiesta Bowl loss
1982 Stanford (John Elway): 5-6
So what does this tell us about Andrew Luck and this year's Stanford team? Well, they'll probably win double-digit games (only Tim Couch, Drew Bledsoe, and Stanford's own John Elway failed to break double digits; Elway never had a winning season in college, which is pretty crazy), and they have a decent shot at going to a BCS game.
Key Game: Notre Dame, November 26
I have Stanford sitting at 9-2 coming into this game, with the Fighting Irish at 10-1. If the Irish win, they will clinch a BCS berth, but if Stanford pulls it out, they will make the bowl selection process very interesting. Do they take Stanford and Andrew Luck? Do they still go with Notre Dame? Or does the ACC get two bids for the first time in their history? Stay tuned to find out! (Although you should probably have figured it out by now.)
4. Boise State (12-0)
Is this the year the Broncos finally break through and get their shot at the national title? If they can take care of TCU at home, and if the ACC plays out the way I see it playing out, they will have their most legitimate claim yet.
Key Game: at Georgia, September 3
Of course, if the Broncos lose to a very good Georgia team in Atlanta, the concerns about if they will get a fair shake at a national title will be moot. Boise State should prevail, but expect another nail-biter on par with last season's victory over Virginia Tech.
*SIDEBAR #15: SEC Preview*
STANDINGS
East
1. Georgia 10-2 (7-1)
2. South Carolina 10-2 (6-2)
3. Florida 8-4 (5-3)
4. Kentucky 7-5 (3-5)
5. Tennessee 7-5 (3-5)
6. Vanderbilt 3-9 (0-8)
West
1. Alabama 11-1 (7-1)
2. Arkansas 9-3 (6-2)
3. LSU 9-3 (6-2)
4. Auburn 6-6 (2-6)
5. Mississippi State 6-6 (2-6)
6. Ole Miss 4-8 (1-7)
BOWLS
Music City Bowl, December 30, Nashville, TN: Tennessee (8-5) over Georgia Tech (6-7)
In their second straight Music City Bowl appearance, the Vols will get the win the they thought they had last year over North Carolina.
Liberty Bowl, December 31, Memphis, TN: Houston (12-2) over Kentucky (7-6)
Kentucky is always more dangerous than their record (since they get beat up by the big boys in the SEC), but I like to think that Case Keenum and his teammates will make sure they don't lose his final college football game (unless the NCAA grant him John Navarre status and he is granted a 10th year of eligibility).
Chick-fil-A Bowl, December 31, Atlanta, GA: Virginia Tech (13-1) over Auburn (6-7)
The Hokies are doomed by their ACC Championship game loss to Florida State, as despite their lone loss, their weak schedule and bad timing cost them a BCS bid. The ACC has never received an at-large BCS berth.
Capital One Bowl, January 2, Orlando, FL: Arkansas (10-3) over Penn State (9-4)
Penn State played Florida close last year before a late pick 6 made the score look worse than it was, but Arkansas this year is better than Florida was last year. Still, it's always a dicey proposition to go against Joe Pa in a bowl game.
Gator Bowl, January 2, Jacksonville, FL: Florida (9-4) over Michigan State (8-5)
Last year, Alabama completely undressed Michigan State 49-7 in the Capital One Bowl, and the same might happen here as Florida will essentially be playing a home game.
Outback Bowl, January 2, Tampa, FL: Wisconsin (10-3) over South Carolina (10-3)
The Badgers come to the rescue and salvage what could have been a disastrous day in Florida for the Big Ten. Wisconsin's defense should be able to contain Marcus Lattimore, while their running game vs. South Carolina's loaded defensive line will be one of the better unit-on-unit battles of the bowl season.
Cotton Bowl, January 6, Dallas, TX: LSU (10-3) over Texas (10-3)
There hasn't been a good Cotton Bowl game since Auburn over Nebraska in 2006. I am confident Les Miles will find a way to make this one entertaining.
BBVA Compass Bowl, January 7, Birmingham, AL: Mississippi State (7-6) over South Florida (7-6)
South Florida has won a bowl game each of the last three years, while the Bulldogs have won 4 straight bowl appearances (in non-consecutive years). Something has to give, and I believe it will be the team with Big East talent instead of the team with SEC talent.
*END SIDEBAR #15*
3. Oregon (11-1)
Chip Kelly has built a system of play that should allow the Ducks to remain an elite team even after RB LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas leave Eugene, but fortunately those two will be there for at least one more season, and the buzzsaw that started last year with a 72-0 win over New Mexico will continue to roll this year.
Key Game: at Stanford, November 12
The Ducks' win over the Cardinal last year was Exhibit A of how unrelenting the Oregon attack is. Trailing 21-3 after the first quarter, Oregon simply overwhelmed their foes, outscoring Stanford 49-10 the rest of the way. Expect more of a game this year, as Stanford has won 3 straight in Palo Alto against the Ducks.
2. Alabama (11-1)
Alabama loses their starting quarterback, their Heisman-winning running back, and their #2 all-time receiver, and are actually in a better position to win the national title this year. For starters, the SEC is slightly weaker this season, with Cam Newton and Nick Fairley leaving Auburn and LSU throwing their season away at the Roadhouse. The Crimson Tide also bring back 10 starters on a defense that allowed 13.5 points per game, including potential All-Americans S Mark Barron, LB Dont'a Hightower, and LB Courtney Upshaw.
Key Game: LSU, November 5
If the Crimson Tide can solve LSU (2-3 in the last 5 years, including a 24-21 loss last year), they can take the suspense out of who will play for the national title, as an undefeated SEC team making the national championship game is about as sure a thing as you will find in college football.
1. Oklahoma (12-0)
The Sooners return all of the important parts of last year's Orange Bowl-winning squad, and even though LB Travis Lewis is out for at least the first half of the year due to injury, the offense should be explosive enough that the defense won't need to worry too much about how many points they surrender.
Key Game: Texas A&M, November 5
The Aggies shocked the Sooners last year 33-19, shutting Oklahoma out in the first half for the first time since 2007. The Norman faithful will be calling for blood, but A&M is one of the rare teams in the country that have the horses on both sides of the ball to keep up. Expect a classic.
*SIDEBAR #16: BCS Preview*
Rose Bowl, January 2, Pasadena, CA: Oregon (13-1) over Ohio State (11-3)
In a rematch of the 2010 Rose Bowl, the Ducks will exact vicious revenge, over-running a Buckeyes team that will be celebrating just reaching this game. Luke Fickell's first season has to be considered a success, but that won't take the sting out of one of the worst beatdowns the Bucks have ever received in a bowl game.
Sugar Bowl, January 3, New Orleans, LA: Nebraska (12-2) over Georgia (10-4)
Maybe the Big Ten just needed the Cornhuskers all of these years they've been getting beat up by the SEC. Georgia will have their best season since 2007, but they just can't match up physically with Bo Pelini's squad.
Orange Bowl, January 4, Miami, FL: Florida State (13-1) over West Virginia (10-3)
West Virginia's spread attack will be neutralized by the Seminoles' speed, and Florida State will enjoy their best season since they lost the national title game to Oklahoma in 2000.
Fiesta Bowl, January 5, Tempe, AZ: Boise State (13-0) over Stanford (10-3)
In a battle of highly-successful quarterbacks, Kellen Moore and his Broncos prevail over Andrew Luck and his Cardinal. As Boise State celebrates their victory, Brian Kelly and his Fighting Irish watch fuming, convinced that they could have knocked off the undefeated Broncos. All of Idaho becomes huge Crimson Tide fans as the national title game approaches.
BCS Title Game, January 9, New Orleans, LA: Alabama (13-1) over Oklahoma (13-1)
Alabama's experienced defense stifles Oklahoma's explosive offense, and Trent Richardson grinds out MVP honors as the SEC wins their 6th national title in a row and Nick Saban gets his second in three years and his third overall. When the AP poll comes out, Boise State garners 25 first place votes, but they aren't enough to split the national championship for the first time since 2003.
*END SIDEBAR #16*
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