College Picks 10-4-06

Last Week’s Record (versus the spread): 9-8-1 I guess I would’ve made money, depending on how I spread it around.

Notable Miss: Arizona State (+1) over Oregon Actual score: Oregon 48 ASU 13 Whoops.

Notable Hit: Georgia Tech (+11) over Virginia Tech

On to this week…

#1 OHIO STATE (-35) over Bowling Green

My good friend Matt relayed to me that the Buckeyes have covered 12 straight games. Might as well make it 13, as the Falcons will provide nearly no resistance to the indisputable best team in the country.

Arkansas (+15.5) over #2 AUBURN

Arkansas is coming off of a bye and have won three straight after getting blown out by USC. While Auburn wins the game, the Razorbacks win you money.

#3 USC (-20.5) over Washington

After getting a scare at Washington State, the Trojans will come home focused against a much-improved Washington team.

#4 West Virginia (-24) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mississippi State got steamrolled for 48 by an LSU offense that isn’t nearly the juggernaut West Virginia is.

#5 FLORIDA (+1) over #9 LSU

I’m going with Florida only because they are home. If I were a betting man, I’d stay the hell away from this game.

Michigan State (+15.5) over #6 MICHIGAN

I know Michigan State just lost to Illinois, and I know Michigan has looked great, but this game always seems to come down to the wire. Also, isn’t the reason everyone thinks Michigan is a national title contender because they beat Notre Dame? Well, didn’t the Spartans beat the snot out of the Fighting Irish before crapping themselves in the fourth quarter? Just something to think about.

#14 Oklahoma (+4.5) over #7 Texas

Vince Young is gone, so that means Bob Stoops owns Mack Brown again. Oklahoma also had a bye week while Texas was playing Sam Houston State for no good reason last week, giving the Sooners ample time to devise ways to befuddle and confuse strapping young Colt McCoy.

#8 Louisville (-32.5) over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

You know who played for Middle Tennessee State? Cleveland Brown playoff great Kelly Holcomb, that’s who.

#13 Tennessee (-2.5) over #10 GEORGIA

Only because I love the hell out of Kenny Chesney.

#14 CALIFORNIA (-5.5) over #11 Oregon

California seems to be the best of the shitty bunch behind USC in the PAC-10. Oregon is lucky to still be undefeated.

#12 NOTRE DAME (-31.5) over Stanford

I stuck my neck out for Notre Dame versus Purdue last week, and they won by 14 when the spread was 14.5. If these cocksuckers win by 31 this week, I’m picking against them for the rest of the year.

#15 Clemson (-16.5) over WAKE FOREST

I know Wake Forest is undefeated, but they have played NO ONE. Still, it’s quite an accomplishment since the Demon Deacons are ravaged by injury, which is why they will be crushed by the first test they see this year.

#17 Florida State (-10.5) over NORTH CAROLINA STATE

North Carolina State lost at home to Akron, who parlayed that season-making upset into losses to Central Michigan and Kent State. What I’m trying to say is North Carolina State is not very good (despite beating Boston College last week, who is ranked only because they beat Clemson in OT when Clemson's starting QB was out with injury).

Maryland (+14) over #18 GEORGIA TECH

The Yellow Jackets have always, ALWAYS seemed to follow a huge win with a terrible performance.

Purdue (+11) over #19 IOWA

Iowa is just not a very good football team. They will win, but it will be close and gross.

#20 BOISE STATE (-35.5) over Louisiana Tech

How anyone can ever win in Boise is beyond me, what with that blue field that gives you seizures and all.

IOWA STATE (+7) over #22 Nebraska

Upset of the week, if you consider a Nebraska loss an upset.

#23 Missouri (+4) over TEXAS TECH

Unlike Wake Forest, I think Missouri is a for-real-surprise-undefeated.

Monday Night Football 10-2: Packers @ Eagles

I was scared to take the Eagles as my King of the Hill pick this week because they're playing Brett Favre on Monday Night. I didn't want to risk Favre having one of "those nights" on MNF. Even though he is insanely past his prime, he could still get lucky and five Packer receivers could somehow come up with his ill-advised, into triple coverage throws in the end zone. So I didn't pick the Eagles. When nothing's at stake, however, I can easily take a more talented Eagles team that should be 3-0 if they hadn't decided to leave the Giants game one quarter too early. So the pick is
PHILADELPHIA (-11) over Green Bay.

NFL Picks: Week 4

NY JETS (+9) over Indianapolis
The Jets have been feisty this year, and I seem to remember Peyton Manning traditionally struggling against the Jets throughout his career. (The Colts better win outright, though. They're my King of the Hill team this week.)

San Diego (-2.5) over BALTIMORE
Baltimore had trouble handling the Browns, so what are they going to do against an actual NFL team?

Minnesota (+1) over BUFFALO
I’m still not buying the Bills, although Willis McGahee looks like he’s bounced back from a down year last season. And can you believe I just talked about the Vikings without mentioning Brad Childress’s mustache? (Dammit.)


Dallas (-9) over TENNESSEE
Vince Young gets his first career start against one of the top 5 defenses in the league. Good luck, kid.

San Francisco (+7) over KANSAS CITY
I know it’s a bit crazy to take a road dog, and that it’s crazier to take a road dog at Arrowhead, and that it’s eating-my-own-shit crazy to take a road dog at Arrowhead when that road dog is San Francisco, but I just can’t pick a team quarterbacked by Brock (or Damon) Huard to score seven points, let alone cover seven.

New Orleans (+7) over CAROLINA
I heard the guy who inspired the hit movie Two for the Money say something about how Carolina never covers at home, so I’ll go with him even though it really seems like the Saints are in for a letdown.

ATLANTA (-7.5) over Arizona
This is going to be one of those games where Atlanta is only up by four with two minutes left and then Kurt Warner throws a pick that D’Angelo Hall returns for a seemingly meaningless touchdown that just happens to cover. Mark it down.

Miami (-3.5) over HOUSTON
If Daunte Culpepper can’t get it going against the same Texans D that made Mark Brunnell look like Rich Gannon, then the Dolphins may start wishing they had that second round pick they gave Minnesota back.

ST. LOUIS (-5.5) over Detroit
Hey Detroit fans, how ‘bout them Tigers? You better hope they pull a White Sox and storm to the World Series, because they’re all you’ve got until the WNBA season starts back up (go Sparks!).

New England (+5.5) over CINCINNATI
Chad Johnson is so much fun that he actually got Bill Belichick to start talking shit. And when Belichick is talking shit, he must be pretty goddamn confident in his gameplan. So watch out, Bengals.

Jacksonville (-2.5) over WASHINGTON
Mark Brunnell may become the first man ever to throw 22 straight completions one week and then throw 22 straight incompletions the next. The Jaguars D is fierce, in a predatory cat kind of way, not a sharply dressed man kind of way.

Cleveland (-2.5) over OAKLAND
Charlie Frye and the Browns won in Oakland last year when the Raiders had at least a smidgen of competence in their pirate bones. If the Brownies lay an egg today, I’m done with them for the year.

Seattle (+3) over CHICAGO
This should be a hell of a game. I know Shaun Alexander is out, but Rex Grossman hasn’t seen a defense like Seattle’s yet. I’m picking the Seahawks’ D to win this one.

I’ll have my Monday night pick tomorrow.

College Picks 9-27-06

Here are my picks for this week’s college football matches involving teams from the AP Top 25 (because Jim Tressell proved how worthless the Coach’s Poll is during the week leading up to the Texas game). Get ready to be rich.

#1 Ohio State (-5) over #13 Iowa

Being an Ohio State fan, I am very much aware of their struggles in night games (the Northwestern game from 2004 stands out, but that could be because A) I told everyone it was going to happen before the season even started and B) my buddy Nick puked all over the local BW3’s and then got into a fist fight with a Michigan fan). However, two factors have me feeling extremely confident that this game will be over by halftime. One, Ohio State is really, really good, and I think the thumping they gave Texas has helped them move on from their night game struggles. Two, and even more importantly than one, Iowa isn’t very good. I have no idea how they’re ranked #13. They needed overtime to beat Syracuse, and the Hawkeyes would have lost that game if the ‘Cuse could have converted on one of their seven attempts at the goal line. “But Drew Tate was hurt!” you exclaim. True, but Tate wasn’t hurt the next week when the Hawkeyes had to come from behind to beat a very iffy Iowa State team. “But Iowa always struggles with the Cyclones, what with the inner state rivalry and all!” you exclaim again, annoying me to no end. Also true. What you have failed to exclaim, however, is that the Buckeyes smoked the Hawkeyes 31-6 last year, a game in which Iowa had a healthy Drew Tate and two of the best linebackers in the country in Abdul Hodge and David Greenway, both of whom have since left for the pros. A few more interesting facts for you:

• Iowa is 0-7-1 all-time versus the number one ranked team in the country, and the last three meetings have been routs.
• This is the first true night game in the history of Kinnick Stadium, which leads me to believe that the Hawkeyes aren’t exactly grizzled veterans when it comes to prime-time football.

#2 Auburn (-7.5) over South Carolina

I’m not supremely confident with this pick after seeing how little scoring Auburn did against LSU and how well South Carolina’s defense has played at home. Still, it seems safer to bet Auburn to cover than for South Carolina to keep it close. If you’re going to take South Carolina, you might as well take them to win it outright as well.

#3 USC (-14) over Washington State

No explanation needed I hope.

Alabama (+13) over #5 Florida

Thirteen just seems like a huge spread for an SEC game that doesn’t involve Vanderbilt or Kentucky.

#6 Michigan (-4.5) over Minnesota

Are you kidding me? Florida is favored by 13 over Alabama but Michigan is only giving 4.5 to a team that just lost to Purdue? That Metrodome crowd must really be rowdy.

Mississippi State (+30.5) over #9 LSU

Not because I think Mississippi State has a chance to win or even score but because I have trouble seeing LSU putting up 31 points.

Ole Miss (+13) over #10 Georgia

Georgia should be in control the entire game, but don’t expect a blowout given how muddled Georgia’s quarterback situation is.

#24 Georgia Tech (+11) over #11 Virginia Tech

Not only is Virginia Tech not going to cover, they’re going to lose. Georgia Tech is my darling, and I’d trust Calvin Johnson to catch my balls with the warmth and gentleness of an Asian masseuse even if Brett Favre was rifling them through double coverage to him.

#12 Notre Dame (-14.5) over Purdue

I think the Fighting Irish found themselves in that comeback over Michigan State. They’re not nearly as good as everyone said coming into the season, but they are good enough to beat Purdue by 15 at home.

Arizona State (+1) over #14 Oregon

I don’t think the Ducks will cover, but they will win. (Just seeing if you’re paying attention.)

#15 Tennessee (-13.5) over Memphis

There’s no way the Vols lose to in-state rivals two years in a row (Vanderbilt beat them last year).

#17 TCU (-7) over BYU

If you’re betting on this game, there’s numbers you can call.

#18 Clemson (-33) over Louisiana Tech

I usually am scared away by big spreads, but what the hell. Let’s just hope that whichever Bowden is coaching the Tigers continues to eschew extra points for two point conversions, as he did in Clemson’s win over Florida State.

#20 California (-10) over Oregon State

Only 10? Is there something about Oregon State that I don’t know?

#21 Nebraska (-16.5) over Kansas

Kansas hasn’t won in Lincoln since 1968. Plus, Nebraska’s going to be fired up after losing to the Jayhawks last year.

#22 Boise State (+4) over Utah

This one’s coming down to the wire with no more than a field goal deciding it.

South Florida (+3.5) over #23 Rutgers

I’m afraid Rutgers’ stay in the top 25 ends abruptly after only one week.

#25 Missouri (-15) over Colorado

Colorado, despite the near upset of Georgia, is pretty damn bad, while Missouri is actually quite good.

Monday Night Football 9-25-06

I'm not doing another log. How many more jokes can I make about Michael Irvin being retarded?
Instead, just a quick pick. Everything about me says the Falcons should just run all over the Saints. Sure, New Orleans is 2-0, but they've beat the Browns and the Packers, and they almost blew the game against a Browns team whose entire offense was Charlie Frye running around for his life and winging it down field to Kellen Winslow. But all logic goes out the window in the first game in a city that was utterly destroyed one year ago. If this were any other game, Atlanta wins by more than 2 touchdowns. Circumstances being what they are, however, the Falcons win on a last-second field goal kicked by none other than New Orleans fave, Morten Andersen, and everyone goes home happy.

Monday Night Football 9/18/06

I'm going to try to keep a running log of the game, ala Bill Simmons, and try to be informative and entertaining for y'all haters, so check back later for that. As for a prediction, Pittsburgh in a tight one over Jacksonville, and it'll come off some fluke play that the Steelers always make, something like Casey Hampton getting an interception or something. It's gonna be physical, and possibly boring if you don't like good licks and other stereotypical things that Theismann will point out tonight. I do know it can't possibly be as entertaining as last year, when Tom Maddox just dropped the ball (and I mean literally dropped it, no one touched him) when the Steelers were in field goal range at the end of regulation and then threw the game-ending pick in overtime. I miss Tommy already. Be back later.