College Football Playoff Scenarios

Well, the college football bowl season is fast-approaching, so that means it's time for my oft-repeated look at how much better things would be with a playoff system.  Instead of the ridiculously in-depth realignment plans I've proposed in the past, I'm just going to look at what the college football postseason would look like under a few basic playoff schemes.  I will start with a look at the most realistic, the "plus-one" solution.


PLUS-ONE

This is the most likely playoff to actually happen, with the top 4 BCS teams facing off and then the winners meeting in a later National Championship Game.

Sugar Bowl
1. Auburn over 4. Stanford
Rose Bowl
2. Oregon over 3. TCU
National Championship
2. Oregon over 1. Auburn


BCS TOP 8

The next most likely scenario, this playoff would include the top 8 ranked teams in the season's final BCS rankings.  I did modify it so teams from the same conference wouldn't play each other in the first round (for example, #1 Auburn vs. #8 Arkansas was changed to #1 Auburn vs. #7 Oklahoma).

First Round
1. Auburn over 7. Oklahoma
2. Oregon over 8. Arkansas
6. Ohio State over 3. TCU
5. Wisconsin over 4. Stanford

Second Round
1. Auburn over 5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State over 2. Oregon

National Championship 
1. Auburn over 6. Ohio State

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS

This scenario would include the 11 conference champions, plus one at-large team (that would be filled by an independent if an independent school finishes in the BCS top 12).  The top 4 ranked teams would get first round byes, but you must be a conference champion or an independent (so Stanford would be bypassed for Wisconsin this season).  The field would look as follows:

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Connecticut
Big Ten: Wisconsin
Conference USA: UCF
MAC: Miami (OH)
Mountain West: TCU
PAC-10: Oregon
SEC: Auburn
Sun Belt: FIU
WAC: Nevada
At-Large: Stanford

Byes
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Wisconsin

First Round
5. Stanford over 12. FIU
6. Oklahoma over 11. Miami (OH)
7. Virginia Tech over 10. Connecticut
8. Nevada over 9. UCF

Second Round
1. Auburn over 8. Nevada
2. Oregon over 7. Virginia Tech
3. TCU over 6. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin over 5. Stanford

Semi-Finals
1. Auburn over 4. Wisconsin
2. Oregon over 3. TCU

National Championship
2. Oregon over 1. Auburn

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS & AT-LARGES

This would be a similar scenario to the one described above, but instead of one at-large team, there would be five.  This would make the field an even 16 and would eliminate the byes.


First Round
1. Auburn over 16. FIU
2. Oregon over 15. Miami (OH)
3. TCU over 14. Connecticut
4. Stanford over 13. UCF
5. Wisconsin over 12. Nevada
6. Ohio State over 11. Virginia Tech
10. LSU over 7. Oklahoma
9. Michigan State over 8. Arkansas

Second Round
1. Auburn over 9. Michigan State
2. Oregon over 10. LSU
6. Ohio State over 3. TCU
5. Wisconsin over 4. Stanford

Semi-Finals
1. Auburn over 5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State over 2. Oregon

National Championship
1. Auburn over 6. Ohio State

MARCH MADNESS

This is the most extreme example, and I wouldn't even really want this to happen, but I thought it would be fun to see it play out anyway.  In this case, we take the top 20% of all FBS teams (just as college basketball takes 20% of its teams into its tournament).  Conference champions are automatic qualifiers, so there are 13 at-large bids available.  The top 8 teams receive first round byes.  The field would look like this.

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Connecticut
Big Ten: Wisconsin
Conference USA: UCF
MAC: Miami (OH)
Mountain West: TCU
PAC-10: Oregon
SEC: Auburn
Sun Belt: FIU
WAC: Nevada

At-Large: Stanford
At-Large: Ohio State
At-Large: Arkansas
At-Large: Michigan State
At-Large: LSU
At-Large: Boise State
At-Large: Missouri
At-Large: Oklahoma State
At-Large: Alabama
At-Large: Texas A&M
At-Large: Nebraska
At-Large: Utah
At-Large: South Carolina

Byes
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. Arkansas

First Round
9. Michigan State over 24. FIU
10. LSU over 23. Miami (OH)
11. Boise State over 22. Connecticut
12. Missouri over 21. UCF
13. Virginia Tech over 20. South Carolina
19. Utah over 14. Oklahoma State
18. Nebraska over 15. Nevada
16. Alabama over 17. Texas A&M

Second Round
16. Alabama over 1. Auburn
2. Oregon over 18. Nebraska
3. TCU over 19. Utah
4. Stanford over 13. Virginia Tech
5. Wisconsin over 12. Missouri
11. Boise State over 6. Ohio State
10. LSU over 7. Oklahoma
9. Michigan State over 8. Arkansas

Third Round
16. Alabama over 9. Michigan State
2. Oregon over 10. LSU
11. Boise State over 3. TCU
5. Wisconsin over 4. Stanford

Semi-Finals
16. Alabama over 5. Wisconsin
11. Boise State over 2. Oregon

National Championship
16. Alabama over 11. Boise State