Fixing College Football (yet again)

It's December, which means that the BCS has yet again screwed up.  Regardless of whether you think Oklahoma State or Alabama deserves to play LSU for the national title, the fact that there is even a question of who should be in the championship game is a failure of the system.  Instead of settling things on the field, the opportunity to play for the title is left to coaches who haven't seen 90 percent of teams ever play and Harris poll voters who somehow think Oklahoma State is the sixth best team in the country, not to mention the actual national champion.  Once again, I'm going to have to come to the rescue.

Unlike my previous proposals to solve college football, this iteration shies away from the Super Conference idea, and instead embraces more smaller conferences.  By more, I actually only mean one more, and by smaller, I mean ten teams per conference.  That would create a landscape of twelve conferences with ten members each, and thus twelve conferences champions.  Add in four at-large teams, and you have a delicious sixteen team field for a scrumptious college football playoff tourney.  Intrigued?

Oops!

I forgot to pick the Buckeyes game in my college football picks, and I know Saturday just wouldn't be the same for you without that knowledge in hand.

Colorado (+16.5) over OHIO STATE
What?  This is one of the craziest lines I've ever seen.  I hope I'm wrong, but this seems like easy money to me.  I see a Buckeyes victory, but something more along the lines of 16-13 or some other ugly score.  This actually moved from -15 yesterday, so there must be something I'm missing.  Did Colorado's team plane crash?  Were Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel welcomed back to Columbus with open arms and forgiving hearts?  Bizarre.

College Football Picks: 9/22/11

LAST WEEK: 12-14
OVERALL: 33-33-1

#20 GEORGIA TECH (-6.5) over North Carolina
#9 Florida (-19.5) over KENTUCKY
#12 MICHIGAN (-10) over San Diego State
New Mexico State (-10.5) over #114 SAN JOSE STATE
#119 OREGON STATE (-4) over UCLA
#1 LSU (-6) over #22 WEST VIRGINIA
Vanderbilt (+16) over #7 SOUTH CAROLINA
#4 ALABAMA (-11.5) over #18 Arkansas
#15 BAYLOR (-20.5) over Rice
#17 VIRGINIA TECH (-20.5) over Marshall
#8 Oklahoma State (+4) over #13 TEXAS A&M
#16 NEBRASKA (-23) over Wyoming
#2 OKLAHOMA (-21) over Missouri
#3 BOISE STATE (-28.5) over Tulsa
SMU (-21.5) over #113 MEMPHIS
AUBURN (-33.5) over #11 Florida Atlantic
#25 Ohio (+4) over RUTGERS
#23 ILLINOIS (-11.5) over Western Michigan
#11 SOUTH FLORIDA (-29) over UTEP
Indiana (-6.5) over #115 NORTH TEXAS
EAST CAROLINA (-13) over UAB
#24 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-17) over Louisiana-Lafayette
#19 Florida State (+2.5) over CLEMSON
WASHINGTON (-1) over #21 Cal
 

Jumping To Conclusions: Week 3

Classes start for me this week, so my write-ups aren't going to be nearly as wordy as usual (to the relief of everyone).  Next week I will debut this season's WHAM Rankings, so enjoy this last edition of the Jumping to Conclusions Rankings for 2011.

Joe Bauserman and the fear of failure

The most frustrating thing about the Buckeyes' 24-6 loss to the Miami Hurricanes mere minutes ago is that quarterback Joe Bauserman and his coach Luke Fickell showed how the fear of failure is a slippery slope to failure.  All night, Bauserman dropped back, scanned the defense, and scanned the defense, and scanned the defense, and scanned the defense, rolled out of the pocket, and threw it out of bounds.  I make fun of quarterbacks like Brady Quinn, Tim Couch, and Kevin Kolb for their propensity to check-down, but at least they throw the ball in play.  Bauserman is afraid to fucking play football.  He's so terrified of making a mistake, he decided at some point that he just wasn't going to throw the ball in play, ever.  Braxton Miller wasn't much better, but he's a true freshman, and he played like it.  Bauserman's shittiness forced Miller into a situation he clearly isn't ready for, so I blame Braxton's follies entirely on fuckhead Bauserman.

And then there's Fickell.  He clearly is in over his head, and I'm not just talking about him letting the game end with 3 goddamn timeouts in his pocket (which is a first for a team down 2 scores in the 4th quarter I would imagine and should be all the evidence everyone needs that Fickell is no long-term answer at head coach).  The penalties on fucking punt formations (punt formations!) and the sloppy tackling are evidence of a shithead who has no idea how to practice.  The Buckeyes were boring and ugly under Jim Tressel, but they always knew how to tackle and how to fucking line up for a punt.  Fickell's a joke, and so is this season.  Ohio State should just volunteer t to give up bowl eligibility this year since they're finishing 4-8 anyway, and hopefully avoid NCAA penalties that could affect the team when they have an actual coach and an actual quarterback.

As for the positives, punter Ben Buchanan overcame the punt formation fuckups to have a hell of a game booting the ball, and the defense performed pretty well considering they were on the field for 99% of the snaps.  The way they recovered from the sucker punch the Hurricanes delivered on their opening drive is the only reason Fickell shouldn't be fired tonight.  The running game also looked pretty awesome, especially considering how inept the passing game was.

This was a fucking joke.  I bought tickets to 5 games, and now I get to go sit in the cold and watch Joe Bauserman and his buddies try to score 6 points 5 times.  Is this a bitter reaction in the heat of the moment?  Yes, but it doesn't mean it isn't true.  The Buckeyes are in trouble, and their only hope is that Russell Wilson and Denard Robinson are the only two quarterbacks in all of the Big Ten.  4-8, no bowl, and a loss in Ann Arbor are haunting my visions of the future.  I pray that I'm wrong.   

College Football Picks: 9/15/2011

Last weekend was not kind to me, but I did learn valuable lessons.  I now know that I must go against Memphis, UNLV, Akron, and Florida Atlantic no matter how large the spread, and that Florida, Stanford, Alabama, and Wisconsin are teams to ride until they prove otherwise.  For the uninitiated, I pick games involving the Bottom 10 and the Top 25 of my Jumping To Conclusions Rankings that are between two FBS teams (so no #21 California vs. Presbyterian pick this week) using Danny Sheridan's lines.  The rank numbers come from my rankings, not the AP or the Coaches' Poll, and the home team is in CAPS.  Oh, and all of the picks are 100% correct.  

SUPERCONFERENCES!

With the SEC adding Texas A&M any day now, the term "superconference" is being bandied about quite a bit.  It used to be that the SEC already was a superconference with their 12-team membership and championship game, but times have changed, and now their is serious talk about 16-team leagues.  So what will this drastic change to the college football landscape look like?  Lucky for you, I love doing this.

Jumping To Conclusions Rankings: Week 2

I never thought I'd say this, but thank God for Michigan.  If it weren't for the Wolverines' miraculous comeback against Notre Dame, Saturday would have been a disaster for the Big Ten.  Purdue loses to Rice, Minnesota loses at home to New Mexico State (and almost loses their coach to a seizure), Indiana loses at home to Virginia, Alabama shut down Penn State in Happy Valley, Iowa lost the Cy-Hawk Trophy to Iowa State, Nebraska struggled against Fresno State, and, obviously, Ohio State barely beat Toledo.  Michigan State did what they were supposed to do against Florida Atlantic, and Wisconsin made Oregon State look like the 119th best team in the country (see  my bottom 10), but without the Michigan win, the Big Ten would look very weak.  Last week's rank is in parentheses, and, again, these rankings are based on the first two weeks only, and are not necessarily where I see them finishing the year.

College Football Picks 9/8/2011: NEVER FORGET Edition

Opening weekend was kind to me, as I even got a game I wasn't supposed to pick (Maryland over Miami) right even if I used the correct line (which I believe was Maryland (-4), not Maryland (+5), which I used).  This week gets trickier, as more teams face quality opponents, and some really bad teams are expected to cover some pretty big spreads (Arkansas State (-15); Minnesota (-20)).  These new challenges will just make it all the sweeter after I nail every...single...pick.

Jumping To Conclusions Rankings: Week 1

Ranking college football teams before the season is an exercise in folly, and trying to evaluate who is really good or not after one, two, or even three games isn't much better.  Unfortunately, I will not have enough data to compile my deadly accurate WHAM rankings until after the fourth week of the season, so I'm going to have to wing it on some rankings for the beginning of the season.  Thus, the Jumping to Conclusions Rankings (previous rank in parentheses).

College Football Picks 9/2/2011: GET PUMPED Edition Pt. 2

Well, night one of college football didn't go so well as I finished Thursday night 1-2.  Kentucky apparently does not know how to score without the departed Randall Cobb (he's on the Packers now, so if the 18 wide receivers in front of him on the depth chart ever retire or break a leg, you may get a chance to see how good he is), and Wisconsin didn't cover a 35 point spread by one point.  Man, no wonder Vegas makes money and I'm just typing these words to myself.  This weekend, I predict a big bounceback.  Just a reminder, I use my Diminishing Skills 120 for the rankings, and pick games involving the bottom 10 and the top 25 against FBS opponents only.

Diminishing Skills 120: The Top 25

Here it is, the final countdown.  This is going to be a sidebar heavy post, so forgive me, but there's a lot of info I need to cram in.  It's been a nightmare writing these, so I hope at least one person is reading them.  If you're out there, enjoy, you magnificent bastard, you!  (Also, a lot of you that get this in your e-mail have said you can't see the pictures.  Here's a solution: go to the website.  http://www.diminishingskills.blogspot.com  Bookmark it.)

College Football Picks 9/1/11: GET PUMPED Edition Pt. 1

(Note: make sure SafeSearch is on before Google Image searching "pumped."  You will see things you cannot unsee otherwise.)

College football is finally here, and I know you missed my spot-on picks last season, so I'm back to fill that gaping hole in your life.  This year, instead of picking the AP Top 25, I'm going to switch things around and pick games involving the Diminishing Skills Top 25 (which should be up tomorrow for your greedy little eyes to IGNORE you ungrateful bastards) and the bottom 10 teams in the Diminishing Skills 120.  As soon as the WHAM rankings are out, I will begin picking the top 25 and bottom 10 of those.  The odds are Auburn-hater Dan Sheridan's, the home team is in CAPS, and these picks are righter than a 90 degree angle.

Diminishing Skills 120: 50-26

We're finally getting into the good stuff on the 120, as some of these teams are legitimate threats for their respective conference championships, or even darkhorse BCS contenders.  Enjoy!


120-101
100-76
75-51


50. Washington (6-6)

The Huskies lose Jake Locker, but they do return 15 other starters (7 on offense, 8 on defense) from a team with a bowl win and experience in tough non-conference games (at BYU, Nebraska).  Steve Sarkisian should have Washington in back-to-back bowls for the first time since they appeared in 8 straight from 1995-2002.

Key Game: Arizona, October 29

(Just a quick aside, but I've noticed a lot of my Key Games are occurring on October 29.  That should be a great weekend of football.)  This matchup falls in the midst of a tough stretch for the Huskies, with a trip to Stanford the week before and a run vs. Oregon, at USC, and at Oregon State to follow.  This is a must-win if Washington wants to avoid a 5-game losing streak.

Diminishing Skills 120: 75-51

Due to my laziness/alcoholism/videogame addiciton, I didn't make much progress on the 120 this weekend.  Therefore, I had to skip Monday and am now behind.  I'm going to try to get this thing wrapped up before the season starts, but no promises.

Diminishing Skills 120: 100-76 (or, Disaster Strikes)

It was my intention to continue the countdown today, but after writing up even more involved capsules for teams 100-89, my clumsy, fat fingers managed to somehow select and erase every team from 100-88, undoing my entire night of work.  I just got a new laptop, and goddammit if those mouse things on them aren't the worst things ever.  So, long story short, I'm going to just list the next 25 teams and try it again over the weekend.  Sorry.

The Diminishing Skills 120: The Bottom of the Barrel

Hey there, college football fans!  I have some great news for you!  You know that football season you've been waiting all summer for?  Well, your wait is over, because I've gone through and predicted every single game correctly!  Now all you have to do is follow along with my inaugural rankings of all 120 FBS teams and you can see how each and every school will fare!  Plus, once I'm through with the rankings, I'll let you know how every conference and every bowl turns out, too!  How awesome, right?!!!

On a boring, letting-you-know-what's-going-on note, these rankings are loosely based on the premise of which team I think would win a head-to-head match-up on a neutral field.  Now, some of these don't necessarily fall under this premise, as I have ranked some teams ahead of others that I actually do see beating them during the season.  In those cases, it's just a gut feeling I'm going on, as well as the context of each team's individual season.  As for what I've written about each team, it can range from a musing about a past player or game I recall about a particular team to a micro-in-depth look at how I see a particular team's season playing out, as well as key game for each school.  I've tried my best not to repeat the same game between two schools, and have done my best to avoid listing annual rivalry games, since they are of course key games and don't really need me to point them out.  Also, I lack the computer knowledge to make sidebars, so instead I've just inserted large blocks of text in the middle of the rankings clearly marked *SIDEBAR*.  So read those accordingly.  And as always, enjoy the hell out of yourself, won't you please?

College Football Playoff Scenarios

Well, the college football bowl season is fast-approaching, so that means it's time for my oft-repeated look at how much better things would be with a playoff system.  Instead of the ridiculously in-depth realignment plans I've proposed in the past, I'm just going to look at what the college football postseason would look like under a few basic playoff schemes.  I will start with a look at the most realistic, the "plus-one" solution.


PLUS-ONE

This is the most likely playoff to actually happen, with the top 4 BCS teams facing off and then the winners meeting in a later National Championship Game.

Sugar Bowl
1. Auburn over 4. Stanford
Rose Bowl
2. Oregon over 3. TCU
National Championship
2. Oregon over 1. Auburn

One Man's Ideas Of How College Football Conferences Should Re-Align

If there is one thing the great conference re-alignment boon of 2010 has taught us, it is that the things we used to consider important to the integrity of a conference no longer apply.  Geography, for instance, used to be considered perhaps the most important aspect of a conference's identity.  Following the PAC-10's failed attempt at adding Texas and most of the rest of the Big 12 South, however, it is clear that geography is no longer a real consideration for how a conference is built.  With the old ideals of what makes a conference a conference going out the window, I figured it is time to shuffle the proverbial deck of college football in the hopes of creating a new landscape boasting super conferences aligned for competitive reasons, not geography.  Dive right in after the jump.

College Football, As It Should Be

Another regular season of college football is in the books, and as the BCS bowl game matchups are announced and the national title game participants are slotted, there is one thing all college football fans can agree on (yes, even fans in Austin and Tuscaloosa, if they're really being honest): this system is fucked.  I know that isn't a revelation, but every year it gets worse and worse.  How can we possibly know if Texas and Alabama are actually better than TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati?  Yes, Texas and Alabama play in tougher conferences, but so did Alabama last year, and Utah (from the Mountain West, the same conference as TCU) destroyed the Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl.  Say TCU or Boise State wins the Fiesta Bowl in a blow out, and Cincinnati dominates Florida.  Who can honestly make a plausible argument that either of those teams isn't as deserving of the national title as the winner of the Alabama-Texas game?  No one, that's who.