Who did they play? (Was the team any good? Was it an FCS school [which in my eyes is one of the greatest sins a college team can commit]? Do they consistently play good teams, or do they get fat on bottomfeeders?)
How did they play? (Did they win or lose?)
what Arena did they play in? (Where were their games played, at home, on the road, or at a neutral site? Do they win on the road? Lose at home?)
what was the Margin of victory? (Are they getting blown out? Are they blowing other teams out?)
And hence, the WHAM Rankings were born (Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders has often said you can't have a stat without a catchy acronym, so there you go) . The measurements I used may seem pretty simple, but I feel like they tell me what I need to know. You can read the details of my methodology at the bottom of the post, and if you have any questions or suggestions on how to improve the rankings, let me know. (I've already thought of something different I'll do next year, and I may just slip it in this season if time permits.) Following the methodology, I have included the entire rankings, 1-120. I hope you enjoy.
THE BOTTOM TEN
120. Ball State 0-5
119. Western Kentucky 0-4
118. New Mexico 0-5
117. Miami (OH) 0-5
116. Rice 0-5
115. Florida Atlantic 0-4
114. Eastern Michigan 0-4
113. Memphis 1-4
112. Duke 2-3
111. Washington State 1-4
TEAMS IN THE COACHES AND AP TOP 25 NOT IN THE WHAM TOP 25
Miami (FL) (ranked 29th by WHAM)
Oklahoma State (52nd)
BYU (32nd)
Oklahoma (47th)
Ole Miss (28th)
Georgia Tech (30th)
South Carolina (27th)
TEAMS IN THE WHAM TOP 25 NOT IN THE COACHES OR AP TOP 25
Stanford
Pittsburgh
Tulsa
Idaho
Michigan
Central Michigan
TOP 25
1. Alabama 5-0
2. Texas 4-0
3. LSU 5-0
4. Auburn 5-0
5. Cincinnati 5-0
6. Boise State 5-0
7. Iowa 5-0
8. USC 4-1
9. Virginia Tech 4-1
10. Stanford 4-1
11. South Florida 5-0
12. Florida 4-0
13. Kansas 4-0
14. Penn State 4-1
15. Ohio State 4-1
16. TCU 4-0
17. Oregon 4-1
18. Tulsa 4-1
19. Wisconsin 5-0
20. Pittsburgh 4-1
21. Nebraska 3-1
22.Missouri 5-0
23. Idaho 4-1
24. Michigan 4-1
25. Central Michigan 4-1
Methodology
I started by going through each team's schedule and awarding or subtracting points based on where wins and losses occurred, how teams did against FCS schools, and blowout wins and losses (defined as a 20 point differential or greater). Points were given out as such:
- Home win: 1 point
- Home loss: -2
- Road win: 2
- Road loss: -1
- Neutral site win: 1
- Neutral site loss: -1
- FCS loss: -3
- FCS win by less than 10: -1
- Blowout win: 1
- Blowout loss: -1
The totals for each team were then averaged, and that average was used to determine a raw rankings unadjusted for schedule (Alabama was number one in those rankings, too). Using those raw rankings, I then assigned a value to each team, starting with 1.2 for the number one team and descending until 0.01 for team number 120. Those values were then substituted for each corresponding team on each school's schedule, with 0 being substituted for each FCS school. Those values were then averaged, and that average became each team's strength of schedule.
The strength of schedule was then included in the original raw rankings, and the new averages were used to determine a schedule adjusted rankings. Using these new rankings as a guide, I then assigned or subtracted points based on quality wins or shitty losses. By breaking the schedule adjusted rankings into tiers, I determined how much each win or loss was worth. Here is the breakdown of the tiers and corresponding point values:
- Quality tier 1 (Teams 1-20): 1 point
- Quality tier 2 (Teams 21-40): 0.66 points
- Quality tier 3 (Teams 41-60): 0.33 points
- Shitty tier 1 (Teams 61-80): -0.33 points
- Shitty tier 2 (Teams 81-100): -0.66 points
- Shitty tier 3 (Teams 101-120): -1 point
The quality and shitty points were then included in the schedule adjusted rankings, and the new averages were used to determine the current WHAM Rankings. The results are as follows:
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. LSU
4. Auburn
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Iowa
8. USC
9. Virginia Tech
10. Stanford
11. South Florida
12. Florida
13. Kansas
14. Penn State
15. Ohio State
16. TCU
17. Oregon
18. Tulsa
19. Wisconsin
20. Pittsburgh
21. Nebraska
22. Missouri
23. Idaho
24. Michigan
25. Central Michigan
26. Notre Dame
27. South Carolina
28. Mississippi
29. Miami (FL)
30. Georgia Tech
31. UCLA
32. BYU
33. Utah
34. Arizona
35. Uconn
36. Boston College
37. Texas A&M
38. Houston
39. Georgia
40. Texas Tech
41. Air Force
42. West Virginia
43. Navy
44. Minnesota
45. Troy
46. Baylor
47. Oklahoma
48. Rutgers
49. Northern Illinois
50. Ohio
51. Middle Tennessee
52. Oklahoma State
53. Toledo
54. Wake Forest
55. North Carolina
56. Colorado State
57. East Carolina
58. Arkansas
59. Southern Miss
60. Iowa State
61. California
62. Clemson
63. Washington
64. Kentucky
65. Louisiana Tech
66. Oregon State
67. Northwestern
68. Indiana
69. NC State
70. Florida State
71. Arizona State
72. UCF
73. Louisiana-Monroe
74. Kansas State
75. Tennessee
76. Colorado
77. San Diego State
78. Michigan State
79. Marshall
80. UAB
81. Nevada
82. Utah State
83. Louisiana-Lafayette
84. UTEP
85. Hawaii
86. Western Michigan
87. Wyoming
88. Vanderbilt
89. Fresno State
90. SMU
91. Tulane
92. North Texas
93. Temple
94. Mississippi State
95. Purdue
96. Army
97. Akron
98. Arkansas State
99. Louisville
100. Bowling Green
101. Kent State
102. UNLV
103. Syracuse
104. Florida International
105. New Mexico State
106. San Jose State
107. Illinois
108. Buffalo
109. Virginia
110. Maryland
111. Washington State
112. Duke
113. Memphis
114. Eastern Michigan
115. Florida Atlantic
116. Rice
117. Miami (OH)
118. New Mexico
119. Western Kentucky
120. Ball State
A Test
To see how accurate the WHAM Rankings really are, I'm going to use it to pick this week's AP Top 25 games. Fingers crossed!
LSU (+8.5) by 5 over Florida
Texas (-32) by 13 over Colorado
Alabama (-6.5) by 2 over Ole Miss
Virginia Tech (-13.5) by 8 over Boston College
Ohio State (-14) by 4 over Wisconsin
TCU (-10) by 1 over Air Force
Iowa (-8) by 6 over Michigan
UCLA (+6) by 1 over Oregon
Texas A&M (no line) by 5 over Oklahoma State
Kansas (-20) by 9 over Iowa State
Auburn (-3) by 5 over Arkansas
BYU (-16) by 9 over UNLV
Oklahoma (-25) by 1 over Baylor
Missouri (+3) by 2 over Nebraska
Georgia Tech (+2.5) by 1 over Florida State
South Carolina (-11) by 8 over Kentucky
No comments:
Post a Comment