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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

College Football Picks 10/14/2009: Information Overload Edition


Wow.  This is shaping up to be one hell of a weekend of football.  Thank God I get to go to another wedding.  Since I was kind of late getting back from the last one I went to, I didn't get to do my college football recap on Monday.  Therefore, my predicted lines and this week's WHAM Rankings (which I plan on running every Monday) will be included along with this week's picks.
 


LAST WEEK
Record: 9-7
Lock of the Week (Auburn): 0-1

OVERALL
Record: 52-50-2
Locks of the Week (Auburn, Cincinnati, Nebraska, Toledo, USC, Penn St.): 1-5

As always, I only pick games involving AP top 25 teams with a line (thankfully, none of the top 25 are playing an FCS school this week), the home team is in CAPS, the lines are Danny Sheridan's, and the picks are 100% correct.  (Also, I predicted the lines right before I looked them up.  While most weeks it would be pretty obvious that I didn't peek before pick the lines, I actually did pretty decent this week.  I might just be starting to figure this game out.)

Arkansas (+24) over #1 FLORIDA
Predicted line: Florida by 12

#2 ALABAMA (-17) over South Carolina
Predicted line: Alabama by 13

#3 TEXAS (-3.5) over #20 Oklahoma
Predicted line: Texas by 5

#4 Virginia Tech (-3) over #19 GEORGIA TECH
Predicted line: Virginia Tech by 4.5

#5 Boise State (-9.5) over TULSA
Predicted line: Boise State by 15

#6 USC (-10) over #25 NOTRE DAME
Predicted line: USC by 5

#7 Ohio State (-13) over PURDUE
Predicted line: Ohio State by 17
LOCK OF THE WEEK.

#8 Cincinnati (-3.5) over #21 SOUTH FLORIDA
Predicted line: Cincinnati by 6

#9 Miami (-15.5) over UCF
Predicted line: Miami by 15

WISCONSIN (-2.5) over #11 Iowa
Predicted line: Iowa by 1

#12 TCU (-20.5) over Colorado State
Predicted line: TCU by 16

Minnesota (+16.5) over #14 PENN STATE
Predicted line: Penn State by 9

Texas Tech (+10) over #15 NEBRASKA
Predicted line: Nebraska by 6

Missouri (+7) over #16 OKLAHOMA STATE
Predicted line: Oklahoma State by 3

#17 Kansas (-10) over COLORADO
Predicted line: Kansas by 7

#18 BYU (-18) over SAN DIEGO STATE
Predicted line: BYU by 17

#23 Houston (-18) over TULANE
Predicted line: Houston by 18

#24 Utah (-16.5) over UNLV
Predicted line: Utah by 22

Conference Champions and BCS Bowl Projections (changes in italics)

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Cincinnati
Big Ten: Ohio State
Conference USA: Tulsa
MAC: Central Michigan
Mountain West: TCU
PAC-10: USC
SEC: Florida
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: Boise State

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State
National Championship Game: Florida vs. Texas
National Champions: Florida Gators
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WHAM Rankings


The WHAM Rankings return for the second week, much to the delight of your little sister (she loves acronyms!).  Each team's record is included, as is their previous week's rank in parentheses.  For a full explanation on how the WHAM Rankings are compiled, click here.  If you already know (or just don't care), read on!

Bottom Ten
Syracuse and Kent State fall into the bottom 10 this week, while Memphis (ranked 102 this week) and Duke (89 this week) escaped.

120. Ball State 0-6 (120)
119. Western Kentucky 0-5 (119)
118. New Mexico 0-6 (118)
117. Miami (OH) 0-6 (117)
116. Rice 0-6 (116)
115. Eastern Michigan 0-5 (114)
114. Washington State 1-5 (111)
113. Syracuse 2-4 (103)
112. Kent State 2-4 (101)
111. Florida Atlantic 0-4 (115)

WHAM Top 25
Wisconsin (26 this week), Michigan (28), and Missouri (35) all fell out of the Top 25, while South Carolina, BYU, and Georgia Tech all make their first appearances of the season.  Virginia Tech jumped all the way up to 3 from 11 on the strength of their blowout win over Boston College (51 this week), while LSU dropped 10 spots to 14 following their loss to Florida.

1. Alabama 6-0 (1)
2. Texas 5-0 (2)
3. Virginia Tech 5-1 (9)
4. Florida 5-0 (12)
5. Cincinnati 5-0 (5)
6. Boise State 5-0 (6)
7. Iowa 6-0 (7)
8. TCU 5-0 (16)
9. Oregon 5-1 (17)
10. Auburn 5-1 (4)
11. USC 4-1 (8)
12. Nebraska 4-1 (21)
13. Ohio State 5-1 (15)
14. LSU 5-1 (3)
15. Kansas 5-0 (13)
16. Central Michigan 5-1 (25)
17. Pittsburgh 5-1 (20)
18. South Florida 5-0 (11)
19. Idaho 5-1 (23)
20. Stanford 4-2 (10)
21. Penn State 5-1 (14)
22. Tulsa 4-1 (18)
23. South Carolina 5-1 (27)
24. BYU 5-1 (32)
25. Georgia Tech 5-1 (30)

WHAM Picks
Following last week's horrific 4-12 week by the WHAM projections, I considered making a major tweak to the system, but I'm going to hold off for at least one more week, if only to collect a larger sample size.

FLORIDA by 9 over Arkansas
ALABAMA by 10 over South Carolina
TEXAS by 11 over Oklahoma
Virginia Tech by 2 over GEORGIA TECH
Boise State by 1 over TULSA
USC by 1 over NOTRE DAME
Ohio State by 8 over PURDUE
Cincinnati by 1 over SOUTH FLORIDA
Miami (FL) by 2 over UCF
Iowa by 1 over Wisconsin
TCU by 12 over Colorado State
PENN STATE by 6 over Minnesota
NEBRASKA by 7 over Texas Tech
OKLAHOMA STATE by 2 over Missouri
Kansas by 7 over COLORADO
BYU by 4 over SAN DIEGO STATE
Houston by 6 over TULANE
Utah by 8 over UNLV

WHAM Conference Champions and BCS Bowl Projections

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Cincinnati
Big Ten: Iowa
Conference USA: Tulsa
MAC: Central Michigan
Mountain West: TCU
PAC-10: Oregon
SEC: Florida
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: Boise State

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Iowa
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa
National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Texas
National Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide

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