Friday, October 02, 2009

NFL Picks: Week 4

I was feeling it last week.  If I had remembered that Matt Hasselbeck was out, that tally would be 11-5 (although the 'Hawks almost pulled it out for me anyway).  While I missed the two games he gave me shit about (Seattle and Tampa Bay), I want my old buddy Tim to keep his eye on the dollar bills as I make it rain with my winnings.

Record: 10-6
Lock of the Week (Baltimore): 1-0

Record: 26-22
Locks of the Week (New England, Jacksonville, Baltimore): 1-2

As always, the home team is in CAPS, the lines are Danny Sheridan's, and the picks are 100%, bet your baby's formula on them, correct.

Oakland (+9) over HOUSTON
This was a toughie.  On the one hand, Houston hasn't shown they can win a game at home, let alone cover a nine point spread.  Oakland, on the other hand, employs JaMarcus Russell at quarterback.  Ultimately, I simply can't back the Busty Bust on the road.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
There's just no way the Titans start the season 0-4, while I'm still pretty sure the Jaguars are a bad team (last week's win at Houston notwithstanding, because who can't win in Houston?).  Playing in front of a stadium filled to a third of its capacity may be a little demoralizing for the Jags, as well.

Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore is playing the possibly the best football they have ever played since becoming the Ravens, while New England still seems to be feeling this out.  I think the Ravens are going to beat the Patriots up, but don't expect the same results in January.  Both of these teams should be in drastically different states come playoff time.

Cincinnati (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
My new team vs. my old team.  Who do I cheer for?  Cleveland and Cincy have split their season series in 4 of the past 7 years, so the Browns are going to have to win one of their games against the Bengals, but with the way people in Cleveland are feeling about the team right now, it seems like the easier win will be in Cincinnati, not in front of a disgruntled home crowd ready to turn on the team at the first sign of trouble.

New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY
I learned last week the hard way: never pick against the Giants when they are facing a bad team.  The Chiefs should be able to muster over 100 total yards, but just barely. 

CHICAGO (-10) over Detroit
Will Detroit be able to keep the momentum going and make it two in a row?  I say no, as the holdovers from last year's team had so much celebrating built up (similar to how my friend Jon would have a "knot" in his dick if he didn't get laid for a week) that they probably went ahead and threw a $450,000 crack party.

WASHINGTON (-7) over Tampa Bay
How bad do you have to be to be getting seven points from a team that just lost to the Lions?  Starting-Josh-Johnson-at-quarterback bad.

Seattle (+10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
I have stupid, ridiculous love for the Seahawks (even without Matt Hasselbeck) and I can't seem to stop myself from picking them.  This is my "E-Mail From Tim Lutz Telling Me My Picks Are Terrible" shitty pick of the week.

New York Jets (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I've doubted the Jets all season long, but they're starting to make a believer out of me.  I don't think they're nearly as good as they've been playing, but they just have the feel of one of those teams where everything's going to go right, like last year's Ravens or even Steelers.  It's too bad this probably won't air in my region, because it has the potential to be one of the better games of the year.

MIAMI (+2) over Buffalo
I know Pennington is out, and the Dolphins are winless, but Tony Sparano proved last year he's good at rallying his team, and I have a feeling Miami is going to come out with a purpose and show the league that their season isn't done yet.  Buffalo gets Marshawn Lynch back, but that may be bad, since it's going to mean less touches for Fred Jackson (4th in the league in rushing with 291 yards).

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis
At this early point in the season, the two sure things seem to be always bet against the Browns and the Rams (unless the Rams are playing the Redskins).  Even without Frank Gore, the 49ers are going to take out the frustrations from last week's heartbreaking loss in Minnesota on a hapless St. Louis team.

DENVER (+3) over Dallas
I know Mike Shanahan and John Elway are gone, but isn't Mile High still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL?  And don't you think the Denver faithful are going to be a little fired up to watch their undefeated Broncos play the Dallas Fucking Cowboys?  I think the Broncos are nowhere near as good as their record or points allowed (16!!!) would lead you to believe, but the home crowd combined with the Cowboys' penchant for fucking up will have the Broncos sitting pretty as the worst 4-0 team in recent memory.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Yes, the Chargers got rolled over in the playoffs in Pittsburgh, and yes, they also lost 11-10 in Heinz Field during the regular season, but San Diego is just too talented and Pittsburgh is just too, I don't know, messed up right now for me to see the Steelers winning by a touchdown. I expect they will probably win, but it will be one of those late game field goal wins due to Norv Turner fucking something up, not a dominant, beat-your-ass, full touchdown win.

Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
This game will prove to be too emotional for Brett Favre to overcome, and he will throw four interceptions and cry after the game.  (We can hope, can't we?)



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