Friday, September 25, 2009

NFL Picks: Week 3

Yowza.  Between my NFL picks and my college football picks, I'm in so deep that I've got guys named Nunzio after my foreskin.  Hopefully I can hold them off for one more week, because I'm having a hell of time trying to scare up a Mohel in Washington Court House.

Record: 7-9
Lock of the Week (Jacksonville): 0-1

Record: 16-16
Locks of the Week (New England, Jacksonville): 0-2

Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
Jets fans are losing their minds, and I can't really blame them.  Mark Sanchez looks like he's been playing for 8 years, and the defense looks better than any other Jets D I can remember.  Can they beat a 3rd straight quality opponent, though?  Perhaps, but the Titans have to win this game, while the Jets may be feeling a little too good about themselves.  Give me Tennessee in a squeaker.

HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Jacksonville is officially terrible, while Houston just ran into a buzz saw in week 1.  Once the Texans get a two score lead, expect the Jags to just give up and for Houston to continue to pour it on.  Jack Del Rio may not last past Halloween
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Kansas City
Donovan McNabb will be out again this week, but do the Eagles really need him?  The Chiefs looked terrible against the Raiders, and Oakland has an obese man at quarterback.  The Eagles should bounce back from their thrashing at the hands of the  Saints with a blowout win of their own.
BALTIMORE (-13) over Cleveland
This is the Browns last chance to show me something before I start using the space beneath them in my Power Poll Rankings to profile potential prospects for the number one pick.  Thirteen points is a lot, but the Browns couldn't even muster 7 against the Broncos.  I hate to say it, but this is my LOCK OF THE WEEK.

TAMPA BAY (+6.5) over New York Giants
The Giants should cruise to a win in Tampa, but they have traditionally taken their foot off the gas and let Brandon Jacobs and the defense take things over after they've built a lead.  Look for a score that isn't indicative for how badly the Giants spanked the Bucs.

DETROIT (+6) over Washington
I can't believe the Skins are getting 6 points after beating the Rams at home by only 2 last week.  Detroit can (kind of) score, while Washington hasn't shown even a hint of that ability since week 6 or so of last season.  Can Detroit get their first win since Jon Kitna was a viable fantasy QB?  This week may be the best chance they're going to get.

Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS
I'm taking the Pack here, but I wouldn't be shocked if St. Louis kept it much closer than it should be.  All of the problems Green Bay had last season (inconsistency, late game boneheadedness, lack of a running game) are still there, as well as the offensive line's (especially Allan Barbre) dangerous inability to protect Aaron Rodgers (sacked 10 times already).  If I had any faith at all in the Rams' offense, I would probably take St. Louis. 

San Francisco (+6.5) over MINNESOTA
Brett Favre faces his first real challenge, as the 49ers are decent enough against the run to force Favre into attempting passes longer than 8 yards.  The Vikings defense and Adrian Peterson should ultimately get the Vikes the win, but I like San Fran to keep it close.

NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Atlanta
Atlanta has looked great so far this year (especially on offense), but they haven't played on the road yet, nor have they played a good team (Miami has 7-9 written all over them, while Carolina may be in for a free fall).  You just have to think that the Pats are going to want to make a statement after getting embarrassed in Giants Stadium last week.  If they don't, New England may be more vulnerable than we thought.

SEATTLE (+1.5) over Chicago
While I think Chicago has the better team, I just can't go against the Qwest Field mojo.  Besides, Jay Cutler is due for another 3 turnover game.

New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO
Byron Leftwich had 296 yards and 3 TDs vs. Buffalo a week after Tom Brady had 378 yards and 2 TDs against them.  Drew Brees should be in for a big day.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Miami
Six points is a bunch for a team that has looked sloppy at times in the first two weeks, but the talent differential is so great between these two clubs that I have to go with the Chargers.  The only hope for the Dolphins is if they can play keep away again.

CINCINNATI (+4) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh will trail for most of the game before Big Ben--who will be 7-21 before his final possession but 14-28 after it--leads them on a 83-yard drive with 2:05 left to set up Jeff Reed's game-winner with :05 left, leaving the Bengals and their fans disappointed and the rest of America wondering how many more games Pittsburgh can win by a score of 12-10 and, more importantly, how many more times we'll have to watch.

OAKLAND (+1.5) over Denver
Denver beat the Browns, who may be the worst team in football, and the Bengals on one of the all-time miracle plays ever.  Oakland should have beaten the Chargers, and then somehow beat the Chiefs despite getting outgained 409-166.  In what should be one of the uglier games of the season, I see the Broncos getting a little karmic payback handed to them when JaMarcus Russell hits Johnnie Lee Higgins on for a game-winning Hail Mary as time expires.  The completion will be Russell's only one of the game.

Indianapolis (+2.5) over ARIZONA
As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, Indy should be favored in every game they play, regardless of where it is played.  Arizona may be coming off a big win in front of 500 people in Jacksonville, or the Jaguars may just be terrible.  I like the Colts defense to pick Kurt Warner off a couple of times and try to make Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells beat them (which they won't).

Carolina (+9) over DALLAS
Will Dallas open their new stadium with two straight losses?  No, but the Cowboys (and Tony Romo, especially) are too prone to mental boo-boos to cover 9 points.  Expect Steve Smith to get deep for six at least once, and expect Tony Romo to make at least one WTF play.  Also, watch to see if the Cowboys can finally register a sack.  If not, perhaps cutting Greg Ellis (3.0 sacks already for Oakland) may have been a huge mistake.

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