College Football Picks 9/30/2009

That's how we bounce back (sort of).  Underdogs South Carolina, Iowa, Oregon, Southern Miss and Virginia Tech made me look like a genius, while Florida State, Illinois, Clemson, and Arkansas reminded me of how big a dummy I can be.

LAST WEEK

Record: 12-9-1 (Texas Tech and Houston pushed.)

Lock of the Week (Nebraska): 1-0

OVERALL

Record: 35-35-2

Locks of the Week (Nebraska, Toledo, USC, Penn St.): 1-3

As always, I only pick games involving the AP Top 25 that have a line, the home team is in CAPS, the lines are Danny Sheridan's, and all of these picks are 100% correct.

#3 Alabama (-17) over KENTUCKY

Predicted line: Alabama by 25

So let me get this straight.  Florida, who struggled (at least by their lofty standards) against their only quality opponent (Tennessee), is favored by 21.5 in Lexington.  Alabama, who has handedly beaten every opponent they've faced (including Virginia Tech and Arkansas), are only favored by 17 in Lexington, even after Kentucky proved they might actually be worse than expected during last week's 41-7 stomping against the Gators.  Looks like Nick Saban may have some bulletin board material (if he had the balls to introduce a gambling line in a college football locker room, which I'm sure he doesn't).

 

#4 LSU (+3) over #18 GEORGIA

Predicted line: LSU by 6.5

Georgia has been scoring at a 2007 New England Patriots pace against the SEC so far, while LSU has struggled with offensive consistency.  The Tigers, though, just seem like one of those teams (the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes are the most glaring example I can think of) that is going to keep on winning despite looking terrible and at the end of the year, everyone's going to wonder how LSU is still a credible candidate for a national title game berth.

#6 Virginia Tech (-16.5) over DUKE

Predicted line: Virginia Tech by 27.5

This line has to be based on the Hokies' offensive limitations, because Duke isn't going to score more than 9 points.

#7 USC (-4.5) over #24 CALIFORNIA

Predicted line: USC by 8

This is a tempting upset candidate, except the Golden Bears like to accrue their PAC-10 losses in bunches, losing at least 2 conference games in a row in 5 of the last 6 seasons. 

#8 Oklahoma (-7) over #17 MIAMI

Predicted line: Oklahoma by 4.5

While Oklahoma failed their only test of the season thus far (the opening day loss to BYU), Sam Bradford should be back under center, and the Canes may be reeling following the beat down Virginia Tech gave them in Blacksburg.  My biggest concern for the Sooners is if being back in Miami--the site of the Sooners' last two championship game let downs against Florida and USC--will stir up some negative vibes and cause Oklahoma to tense up and try to do too much.

#9 Ohio State (-16.5) over INDIANA

Predicted line: Ohio State by 18.5

If Indiana thinks they're going to get 33 points and 197 yards rushing against the Bucks, they are in for a disappointing afternoon.  Actually, even if they don't think they're going to be that productive offensively, the Hoosiers are in for a disappointing afternoon.  Ohio State will be going for their 3rd straight shutout.   

#10 Cincinnati (-28) over MIAMI (OH)

Predicted line: Cincinnati by 31

Practically playing at home against what may be the worst team in the nation is a good recipe for the Bearcats to try and match the 70-3 stomping they gave Southeast Missouri State earlier this year.  LOCK OF THE WEEK. 

Southern Methodist over #11 TEXAS CHRISTIAN (-27.5)

Predicted line: TCU by 16.5

I think TCU will win this game easily; I just doubt their offense will be able to score enough to cover the four touchdown spread.

#12 Houston (-16.5) over UTEP

Predicted line: Houston by 19

The Cougars avoid the threat of a letdown game by drawing the inept UTEP(zing!) Miners.

#13 IOWA (- 20.5) over Arkansas State

Predicted line: Iowa by 24

Everything I just wrote about Houston applies to the Hawkeyes, except for the cool rhyming part (does anything rhyme with Arkansas State?).

#15 Penn State (-6.5) over ILLINOIS

Predicted line: Penn State by 18.5

Wow.  Danny Sheridan really lost respect for the Nittany Lions following their loss to Iowa.  Apparently he missed Illinois's 30-0 flaming bag of turd at the Horseshoe last week.

Washington State (+32) over #16 OREGON

Predicted line: Oregon by 21

Oregon will of course cruise to victory in this one, but just as I didn't think USC could beat the Cougars by 44,  I don't think the Ducks can win by 33.  Did someone from Washington State kill Danny Sheridan's son or something?

#20 BYU (-24.5) over Utah State

Predicted line: BYU by 22.5

I could just copy and paste the nickname "Cougars" for most of these predictions.  One of the teams should have the coach's trophy wife come out as the mascot.  I vote for BYU just for the sheer audacity of it.

VANDERBILT (+9.5) over #21 Ole Miss

Predicted line: Ole Miss by 6.5

I'm picking against Ole Miss until they beat a team that isn't from Memphis or the FCS.  Vanderbilt has hung tough against LSU and Mississippi State already, and beating Ole Miss just might make their season.

#22 Michigan (pick) over MICHIGAN STATE

Predicted line: Michigan by 6.5

Michigan's struggles against Indiana and the fact that the game is in East Lansing almost swayed me to pick Michigan State, but three straight losses for the Spartans (including a home loss to Central Michigan) convinced me to stick with the Wolverines.

#25 Georgia Tech (-4.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Predicted line: Georgia Tech by 5

 Mississippi State is tough out, but Georgia Tech is the type of grind it out, keep the turnovers down team that avoids upsets by teams like the Bulldogs. 

Conference Champions and BCS Bowl Projections (changes in italics)

ACC: Virginia Tech

Big 12: Texas

Big East: Cincinnati

Big Ten: Ohio State

Conference USA: Southern Miss

MAC: Central Michigan

Mountain West: BYU

PAC-10: USC

SEC: Florida

Sun Belt: Troy

WAC: Boise State

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Iowa

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State

National Championship Game: Florida vs. Texas

National Champions: Florida Gators