Chicago 115 Cavs 86: Dog Poop

The Cavs were so thoroughly outplayed tonight, there is no need for any kind of breakdown.  Just dog poop.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Note: My plan was to do a fairly lengthy write-up on each team, as I have done for the teams of the Atlantic and Central divisions.  Unfortunately, I'm out of time.  Instead, I'm just going to do a quick wrap-up of each division.

Wins Produced Order of Finish

1. Miami 65-17
2. Atlanta 52-30
3. Washington 43-39
4. Orlando 30-52
5. Charlotte 18-64

Spoiler alert: Miami is going to repeat as champions (as long as LeBron stays healthy).  Atlanta will surprise some by achieving the exact same results they have the past four seasons or so in an entirely different matter. Instead of the iso-heavy attack of the Joe Johnson years, Danny Ferry has constructed a team of sharpshooters (Kyle Korver, rookie John Jenkins, Lou Williams) surrounding Al Horford.  And I'm in the camp that says Josh Smith has a monster contract year.  Washington will probably fall short with John Wall and Nene already out.  The lineup they threw out opening night in Cleveland did not look like a contender for the NCAA tourney, let alone the NBA playoffs.  Orlando continues to do it wrong, as the train wreck return they received for Dwight Howard still leaves them with too much talent to truly bottom out.  Charlotte will be better than last year's historically awful team, but they will still be the worst team in the league.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist looks like he's going to prove me wrong and put together a solid rookie season, but there's only so much one man (child?) can do.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Central Division Wrap-Up

Wins Produced Projected Order of Finish
1. Indiana 48-34
2. Milwaukee 47-35
3. Chicago 45-37
4. Cleveland 26-56
5. Detroit 19-63

Wins Produced All-Central Team

PG George Hill, Indiana

SG Paul George, Indiana

SF Luol Deng, Chicago

PF Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee

C Joakim Noah, Chicago

Eye-Ball Test All-Central Team
PG Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
SG George, Indiana
SF Deng, Chicago
PF Greg Monroe, Detroit
C Noah, Chicago

Wins Produced and the Eye-Ball Test match up pretty well in the Central, with the obvious exception of George Hill over Kyrie Irving.  (Of course, Derrick Rose would make the team over both of them if he were healthy.)  I personally think Monroe is in for a monster year, but I don't think Ilyasova is necessarily a slouch.  Carlos Boozer is hated by even Bulls fans, but he is still a productive player who could find himself in the running for this team with a heavier scoring load this year.  Deng beats out a weak crop of small forwards (Danny Granger is his only legitimate competition), while Joakim Noah edges out Anderson Varejao and Roy Hibbert.  As I touched on in my Pacers preview, Paul George has the potential to be a major star, and he shouldn't have much competition at his position from his division-mates.

Cavs 94 Washington 84: Quick Thoughts

• Holy mother, Anderson Varerjao.  For proof of how scoring is an overrated component of winning basketball, Varejao dominated this game despite only 9 points.  Two blocks is good, 22 rebounds is amazing, but not surprising (although it is a new career-high for Andy), but 9 assists is unreal.  I don't know if running the offense through Andy in the high post is a new, permanent wrinkle of Byron Scott's offense or if Andy was just taking advantage of poor weakside help by the Wizards, but it was a joy to watch.
• Kyrie Irving had the kind of quietly dominant games superstars tend to have throughout a season.  I felt like Irving was saving himself for the 4th quarter a little until Fox Sports Ohio flashed the 24 points he had near the end of the 3rd quarter.  A final line of 29 points and 6 rebounds on 55 percent shooting would be welcome nightly, although you'd have to hope he finishes with more assists than turnovers from here on out (3 assist to 4 turnovers tonight).  Another sign Irving is quickly ascending to Superstar status is the call he got in the 4th when he obviously tripped over himself.  The Cavs were trailing at that point, and a turnover there may have swung the game.
• In the battle of #3 pick against #4 pick, Dion Waiters came out well-ahead, putting up a solid 17 points and 3 steals versus Bradley Beal's 8 points on 2-8 shooting.  Waiters was active, and attacked the hole throughout the evening.  He hit the three of the game in the 4th, and was much better than I gave him credit for in my Cavs preview, as well as exponentially more impressive than he his performances in Summer League and preseason suggested he could be.  Hopefully, he keeps it up.
• Alonzo Gee had a rough game.  Four points on 2-9 shooting, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and three turnovers aren't good numbers, and it felt like he fouled out of this game 3 times (even though he finished with only 5 fouls).  Fortunately for Gee (but unfortunately for the Cavs), C.J. Miles was even worse, shooting 1-5 with 3 turnovers and a bad decision nearly every time he touched the ball.  Omri Casspi must be horrible to not see a second of action behind these two.
• The bench bunch as a whole is a reason for real concern, as the combination of Miles, Donald Sloan, Boobie Gibson, Tyler Zeller, and Luke Walton surrendered most of a 12-point Cleveland lead entering the 4th in seemingly 2 minutes.  If Gibson's shot isn't falling like it was in the 1st half (10 points, 7 in the 2nd quarter), this unit simply cannot score (Cleveland didn't score until there were 7 minutes left in the game).  Zeller looked like a rookie big man, Sloan had one nice move negated by one of the worst calls I've ever seen (have you ever heard of a player pushing off with his knee?) but not much else to contribute, and when Walton checked in I seriously thought an assistant coach had suited up as a goof.  I find it hard to believe Samardo Samuels or Jon Leuer couldn't provide more than Walton's bloated corpse did (2 points, 1 rebound, 2 turnovers), and I hope we see 100% more of the two young bigs in the (very) near future.
• A win is nice, but it comes with a grain of salt.  The Wizards are missing John Wall and Nene, and they were leaning heavily on Jordan Crawford and Earl Barron to carry them down the stretch.  You can justifiably wonder why Crawford and Barron were in the game over A.J. Price and Emeka Okafor to begin with (if Okafor were in, for instance, i find it hard to believe Tristan Thompson would  have gotten three straight wide open dunks from the exact same spot on the right block), but it also shows how thin the Wizards are. \The Cavs will have a better gauge of where the stand early on after Friday's game vs. Chicago.
• Here's hoping Wizards' assistant coach Sam Cassell takes over for Randy Wittman before the end of the season, if for no other reason than to see him do his Big Balls dance as Washington jogs towards the huddle after a timeout.  Of course,  I suppose he could do that as an assistant, too.      

2012-13 NBA Preview: Detroit Pistons

With the NBA season fast approaching here, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the depressing Detroit Pistons.  Enjoy.

2012 NBA Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the still-a-year-away Cleveland Cavaliers.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Season Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the intriguing Milwaukee Bucks.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Season Preview: Chicago Bulls

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the scrappy Chicago Bulls.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Season Preview: Indiana Pacers

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the maxed-out Indiana Pacers.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division Wrap-Up

Wins Produced Projected Standings

1. New York 57-25

2. Boston 46-36

3. Toronto 46-36

4. Philadelphia 39-43

5. Brooklyn 37-45

Wins Produced All-Atlantic Team

PG Rajon Rondo, Boston

SG Landry Fields, Toronto

SF Gerald Wallace, Brooklyn

PF Kris Humphries, Brooklyn

C Tyson Chandler, New York

Eyeball Test All-Atlantic Team
PG Rondo, Boston
SG Joe Johnson, Brooklyn
SF Carmelo Anthony, New York
PF Kevin Garnett, Boston
C Chandler, New York

While I have confidence that Wins Produced gets most things right, there are certain things that stats tell us that our eyes have trouble believing.  Landry Fields and Gerald Wallace being better than Joe Johnson and Melo, respectively, is one of those things.  Most would probably even take Paul Pierce and Jason Richardson over Fields and Wallace, and I could not blame them.  Chandler beats out Andrew Bynum as the top pivot man in the division, based on Chandler's edge on the defensive end as well as Bynum's inconsistent behavior, health, and effort.  Kevin Garnett is technically a center, but it's tough to leave him off an all-Atlantic team, so there he is.  Keeping KG at center, the eyeball test would probably go with Humphries, as well, although I'm sure a few of you misguided souls out there are screaming Amare's name right now.

Wins Produced All-Bargnani Team

PG Tyshawn Taylor, Brooklyn
SG Nick Young, Philadelphia
SF DeMar DeRozan, Toronto
PF Andray Blatche, Brooklyn
C Fab Melo, Boston

Named in honor of Andrea Bargnani continued ineptitude in the eyes of Wins Produced (career average of -3.2 WP; twice the lowest rated player by WP), this team is a motley collection of those players Wins Produced sees taking the most away from their teams.  Taylor and Melo can be excused since they are rookies, but there isn't much to suggest they will ever be above-average pros (although I have a personal, irrational b-ball crush on Taylor, stats be damned, and believe he can be a poor man's Russell Westbrook).  I touched on DeRozan's shortcomings in my Raptors preview, while Nick Young is the deadly double threat of a gunner who can't shoot.  Andray Blatche's place on this team should need no explanation, but if you need evidence, here you go.  I have no idea why the Wizards struggled so badly when Young and Blatche were two of their building blocks.

Wins Produced Atlantic MVP: Tyson Chandler, New York

Canaan's Atlantic MVP: Kevin Garnett, Boston
I love Chandler, and believe he is a true difference-maker in this league, but the truth is that if the Knicks perform at their projected level, there is no way anyone but Melo gets the bulk of the credit.  While Garnett is no longer even the player he was when he first came to Boston, his defense, intensity, and ability to still hit midrange jumpers at will make him the most crucial member of his respective team in the division.

Wins Produced Atlantic LVP: Nick Young, Philadelphia
Just a reminder: the Sixer amnestied Elton Brand, a 6.4 WP player last year, to sign Young, meaning that a player who took away 2.2 wins last year will cost Philly nearly $22.1 million this season.  Add in that Young was signed to replace super-sub Lou Williams and the palm cannot hit the face fast enough.

Atlantic DPOY: Tyson Chandler, New York
It's hard to beat the defending NBA DPOY.

Atlantic Matador of the Year: Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
Last year, Bargnani had a worse block rate than Anthony Carter and a worse steal rate than Aaron Gray.  Bargnani is as active as a bean bag chair on defense, and you would have to think that won't fly with Dwane Casey very much longer.

Wins Produced Atlantic ROY: Terrence Ross, SG, Toronto
Ross should get the playing time and score enough to get himself at least a mention as a successful rookie (there's really no competition when it comes to who is winning the big prize, is there?).  If the Raptors do indeed make the playoffs, it makes his case that much stronger.

Canaan's Atlantic ROY: Jared Sullinger, PF, Boston
This is probably some hometown bias, but I really believe Sullinger will be a very effective pro on offense if his back is right.  He's short, but sturdy, and he has a rare gift for getting himself into the right position every time he is on the block.  Late last season, he also started flashing a perimeter post game similar to Dirk's, which would be a potent addition to an already full offensive arsenal.  Defensively, things are probably going to be ugly, especially when Sully finds himself switching onto the likes of Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook in the pick-and-roll.  Still, I think his offense will outweigh his lack of defense, and also that Doc Rivers and the wily vets on the C's are savvy enough to effectively hide Sullinger on defense.

Wins Produced Atlantic Rookie Bust: Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto
Wins Produced don't think that highly of Valanciunas, and I think even less of him.  This is probably bitter eggs on my part (or whatever that saying is; sour beans? tart grapes?), since I've hated Valanciunas ever since the Cavs passed on him in favor of Tristan Thompson.  I don't personally hate him, of course, but my fear that the Cavs passed on the next Zydrunas Ilgauskas drove me to wish the younger Lithuanian nothing but the worst.  The fact that he projects to struggle so much has me breathing a sigh of relief (at least for now).

2012-2013 NBA Preview: Brooklyn Nets

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the disappointing Brooklyn Nets.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the confusing Philadelphia 76ers.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Toronto Raptors

With the NBA season fast approaching, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players perform, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the up-and-coming Toronto Raptors.  Enjoy.

2012-13 NBA Preview: Boston Celtics

With the NBA season a little over a week away, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I march on with the steady Boston Celtics.  Enjoy.

2012 NBA Preview: New York Knicks

With the NBA season a little over a week away, I figured I'd throw my two cents in on how I see things playing out.  These projections were created using Wins Produced (WP) from the Wages of Wins Journal and The NBA Geek.  To gauge how rookies and incoming international players, I used the amazing projections of Arturo Galletti.  If you haven't read any of that stuff, you should.  I'll start with the surprising dominant (???) New York Knicks.  Enjoy.

Best Case/Worst Case: Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets certainly are making a splash this off-season.  First, they resign Gerald Wallace for 4 years, $40 million.  Then, they trade a sack of moldy tangerines for Joe Johnson and his moldy tangerine of a contract.  After minor deals that led to the acquisitions of Reggie Evans and Euro-stud Mirza Teletovic, the Nets pulled off a coup, re-signing Deron Williams and (partially) justifying all of the insane maneuvers they've been making the past two seasons.  While they may have cost themselves a shot at Dwight Howard, the Nets will at least firmly find themselves in the playoffs in their debut season in Brooklyn.  Or will they?

To find out just how much these extravagant moves are worth in terms of wins, I've compiled the best case, worst case, and average (and probably most likely) case for this upcoming season for the Nets using The NBA Geek's Win Score statistics (the numbers listed after each player's name is his Wins Produced, which when totaled should give a rough approximation of how many games each particular incarnation of the Nets will win).  After considering how much they've mortgaged their future with the Wallace signing and Johnson trade, were these moves worth it?  Find out after the jump.

2012 NBA Draft Report Cards

These grades are based on value more than actual evaluation, since I'm not much of an evaluator.  They also are relative to the round they took place in, meaning that an A in the second round is not the same as an A in the first round.  Enjoy.

2012 Undrafted NBA Free Agent Tracker

(Updated 7/3/12)

Since it is unbelievably hard to pin down a list of undrafted free agent signings following the NBA draft, I've decided to track them myself (with an enormous hat tip to Bleacher Report, which is where I found these signings.  You can go there if you want [they even have nice write-ups of each player], but I hate slide shows, so I wrote it out in an easy-to-read list).  I will try to update this list as more signings happen, so feel free to check in often.


Atlanta Hawks: Eric Griffin, PF, Campbell

Brooklyn Nets: Ashton Gibbs, PG, Pittsburgh

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Jones, PF, West Virginia; Rob Jones, F, St. Mary's

Dallas Mavericks: Drew Gordon, PF, New Mexico

Detroit Pistons: Casper Ware, PG, Long Beach State; Yancy Gates, PF/C, Cincinnati; Patrick Richard, SG, McNeese State

Golden State Warriors: Rakim Sanders, SF, Fairfield

Houston Rockets: Scott Machado, PG, Iona; Zoran Dragic, SG, Slovenia; Kyle Fogg, SG, Arizona; Jerai Grant, PF, Clemson; Eli Holman, PF/C, Detroit; Dionte Christmas, SG, Temple

Indiana Pacers: Reggie Hamilton, PG, Oakland

Los Angeles Clippers: Cameron Moore, PF, UAB

Memphis Grizzlies: Mitchell Watt, PF, Buffalo; Cameron Tatum, SG, Tennessee

Miami Heat: J'Covan Brown, PG, Texas

Milwaukee Bucks: Jordan Taylor, PG, Wisconsin; Xavier Gibson, C, Florida State

Oklahoma City Thunder: Kent Bazemore, G/F, Old Dominion

Orlando Magic: Maalik Wayns, PG, Villanova; Charlie Westbrook, SG, South Dakota; Dominique Sutton, SF, North Carolina Central

Philadelphia 76ers: Zack Rosen, PG, Pennsylvania; Chris Johnson, SF, Dayton

Phoenix Suns: Matt Gatens, SG, Iowa

Sacramento Kings: Tony Mitchell, SF, Alabama; Alex Young, SG/SF, IUPUI

20 Best Still Available:

William Mosley, PF, Northwestern State
Jesse Sanders, PG, Liberty
Ken Horton, SF, Central Connecticut
Scott Machado, PG, Iona
Chris Johnson, SF, Dayton
Ricardo Ratliffe, PF, Missouri
Wendell McKines, SF, New Mexico State
Eli Holman, PF/C, Detroit
Mike Glover, SF, Iona
Terrell Stoglin, PG, Maryland
John Shurna, SF, Northwestern
JayMychal Green, PF, Alabama
Herb Pope, PF, Seton Hall
Dusan Cantekin C, Serbia
Scoop Jardine, PG, Syracuse
Garrett Stutz, C, Wichita State
Cameron Moore, PF, UAB
Devoe Joseph, SG, Oregon
Keith Wright, PF, Harvard
Jason Clark, PG, Georgetown

2012 NBA Draft: Cavs Dream/Nightmare Picks

Before I unleash my Mock Draft Version Beta (you can read Version Alpha here), I thought I should run down the prospects I would love to see in the Wine & Gold, and those that I feel would be wasted picks.  Since things will be a bit of a crapshoot by the time the Cavs pick at #24 (let alone in the second round), I've concentrated my efforts on best case/worst case picks at #4.  I'm also operating under the belief that the Cavs need to come out of this draft with another big, a wing, a shooting guard, and another solid rotation player (regardless of position).  Enjoy.

2012 NBA Mock Draft Version Alpha: Just The Tip

The NBA lottery has come and gone, and the Cavs were robbed of the second piece of a future championship club by winning a coin toss.  Even without Anthony Davis, though, Cleveland should be in a great position to improve, with four picks in the top 34 of a deep draft.  I compiled this mock using information from Draft Express, NBADraft.net, ESPN's Chad Ford, and ProBasketballDraft.com.  The player comparisons come from Hickory-High's awesome Similarity Scores project.  I've listed the top five comps for each player in the lottery.  Since this is only Version Alpha, I've only included analysis of the lottery picks.  As draft night gets closer, I will dive in deeper.  Enjoy.