Friday, September 02, 2011

College Football Picks 9/2/2011: GET PUMPED Edition Pt. 2

Well, night one of college football didn't go so well as I finished Thursday night 1-2.  Kentucky apparently does not know how to score without the departed Randall Cobb (he's on the Packers now, so if the 18 wide receivers in front of him on the depth chart ever retire or break a leg, you may get a chance to see how good he is), and Wisconsin didn't cover a 35 point spread by one point.  Man, no wonder Vegas makes money and I'm just typing these words to myself.  This weekend, I predict a big bounceback.  Just a reminder, I use my Diminishing Skills 120 for the rankings, and pick games involving the bottom 10 and the top 25 against FBS opponents only.


#14 TCU (-3.5) over BAYLOR
Baylor is 0-3 in their last 3 meetings, with the average margin of victory being 24, including a 45-10 loss last year.  TCU is young, and Baylor has Robert Griffin and motivation, but I have faith that Gary Patterson will have his Horned Frogs ready to play.

#21 FLORIDA (-35) over #114 Florida Atlantic
Even though I just got burnt by Wisconsin on a 35-point line, and Florida is in flux with a new head coach and the John Brantley question mark at QB, I might have ranked Florida Atlantic too high.

#8 FLORIDA STATE (-28) over Louisiana-Monroe
I don't get how Florida is giving 35 at home, but Florida State, a much better team, is only giving 28.  I will take the gift, though, Vegas.  Thanks.

#15 OKLAHOMA STATE (-38) over #117 Louisiana-Lafayette
If Oklahoma State doesn't break the 50-point barrier, I will be shocked.

#3 Oregon (-4) over #7LSU (in Dallas)
I liked the Ducks even before the bar fight, so I'm really on board now.

#4 Boise State (-3) over #13GEORGIA
Boise State just doesn't lose, ever, and while Georgia should have a very good year, I can't pick against Kellen Moore and the Broncos.

Ohio (-7) over #118 NEW MEXICO STATE
The Bobcats should get off to a good start on their march towards an undefeated season (I have them at 11-1, in case you haven't read my MAC preview, which I'm sure you haven't, since you aren't even reading this).

#1 OKLAHOMA (-25) over Tulsa
The over/under is 64.5, and if I had money I didn't mind pissing away on a stupid bet, I'd take the over.

Indiana (-6) over #113 BALL STATE
Is the home field advantage so great in Muncie that a Big Ten can't give more than 6 points?  Thanks for gift number 2, Vegas!

#11 TEXAS (-24) over Rice
Texas only won by 17 over the Owls last year, but I think they've found their groove again, and I like them to make a statement here.

East Carolina (+20.5) over #16 SOUTH CAROLINA
I think the Gamecocks will dominate this game, but I just don't know that they have enough explosion on offense to win by three touchdowns.

#5 STANFORD (-30) over #111 San Jose State
I predict 3 Andrew Luck touchdowns before half-time.

South Florida (+11) over #18 NOTRE DAME
I think this will be a grinder, with Notre Dame needing some late-game heroics to pull out the W.

#17 USC (-23.5) over Minnesota
Minnesota played the Trojans tough last year in Minneapolis (32-21), which is why I see Lane Kiffin turning on the heat and blowing out an extremely weak Gophers squad.

Kent State (+38) over #2 ALABAMA
Kent's defense is pretty good for a MAC team, and while I think their offense will struggle to cross the 50, their defense should be able to at least slow down a Tide offense that is breaking in a new starting quarterback.

#10 OHIO STATE (-33) over #120 Akron
The Buckeyes should come out looking to make a statement, and they couldn't have picked a better opponent than the Zips.

#22 WEST VIRGINIA (-23) over Marshall
Prior to last season's overtime Mountaineer win, Marshall has never gotten closer than 17 to their in-state rivals.  With the swagger back on the West Virginia offense, I look for them to show off their new toy and run up the score on the fairly hapless Thundering Herd.

#12 TEXAS A&M (-15.5) over SMU
Gift number 3, Vegas.  I wonder if they're just trying to butter bettors up so that they will gain confidence and pour more money into the casinos' coffers as the season goes on.

MARYLAND (+5) over Miami (FL)
What did this line open at that it's sitting at Miami by 5 even after all of the suspensions and associated hullabaloo?  Gift number 4, Vegas!

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